Basil_Fawlty_Walks_On_Water

My run is becoming less and less likely...

Friday looking a bit nasty, but don't think it will be a washout. Been pretty dry for a while now so fingers are crossed for the best.

Sort of. An ensemble mean will (almost) never be as extreme in that sort of situation, as it is the mean of all solutions on offer, so less amplified runs will reduce its potency. It is best used for trends rather than assessing tracks of specific systems, as it is not actually a specific model run, just an average of many. So a dramatically weaker low from the ensemble mean should, essentially, mean that there isn't uniform support for the op run. However, it is probably more useful to look at the individual members themselves.

Totally agree with this, at least for the next week or so. Considering the winter we've had so far, there is no way anyone should be writing off a more progressive, Atlantic-influenced solution, so can't rule out the GFS yet. However, there are certainly some indications that a much colder period is imminent, and a middle ground solution could end up with a run of undercutting lows which could provide some snow even without a truly cold easterly. Interesting times ahead! Also, interesting to finally discover the meaning of "FI". Have been lurking for years and always assumed this was "forecast interval", i.e. the period until which the forecast had a fair degree of certainty to it.

westward shift is probably marginally better for keeping the cold in the long run, but frustrating in terms of potential for immediate snow... and after Monday being taken away 48 hours before fruition, to have Friday follow the same fate would certainly a shame!

in a situation like this, with fairly cold uppers and in many places a non-marginal situation, 1mm=.8cm is probably roughly right. In more marginal situations, it can be more like 1mm=.5cm. All depends on the dendritic growth... Ratios of 1mm=1cm will need 850mb temps of <-8 in most cases. Colder than that and you can see ratios as high as 1mm=2cm.

Looking at the 00z and 06z GFS, we could do really quite well on Wednesday...

What's that website? Yes, does look very marginal, although based purely on 00z Reading (my location) would just about stay all snow (and between 8-12 cm of it...) This is as close as it gets... perhaps a tiny bit sleety but should really be alright...

Also regarding the 0z, parts of the South could do quite well with tuesday/wednesday, so long as we can remain all snow...

As a meteorology student I'm sure you can all imagine how gutting it is that I chose this week to be on holiday (ahh, poor me ha ha), with my flight due back tonight... can anyone tell me what sort of snow depths there are right now in Reading, and also what the chances of actually driving from Gatwick to Reading are in any sensible time? Thanks, and I hope to return the favour with a future event, just don't really have the time to get all the info myself right now as I can't!

I am already resigned to Reading contriving to miss this one.

Possibly, but too soon to know for sure now. Almost certainly not to the same magnitude, at least for Grtr London and Surrey. Depressed in Reading, within 10 miles or so of a pasting to N, S, and E but think we're pretty much done with 6 cm.

had a band of very heavy snow poised to slam us just now, then at the next radar interval, it's reshaped itself to avoid Reading. Unbelievable. EVERYWHERE north, south, and east of us are getting pasted and we've had maybe 2".

The precip shield is definitely backing westwards.

Almost certain