Long haul to mild

I’ve been looking through the precipitation charts for the coming weekend and see that, apart from over Northern hills, the breakdown is just going to involve rain. Could someone with more technical knowledge than me (that’s most on this thread ) tell me why, with all the cold air in place across the UK, it won’t involve at the very least a snow to rain event for all?

Local stations here reporting temperatures of 32 degrees, which is a good deal lower than elsewhere in Suffolk. Think we have been saved by being only 10 miles or so from the coast, and also with the breeze being from that direction.

Met Office and BBC in fairly decent agreement for my neck of the woods tomorrow, but that’s quite a difference for Tuesday! Why are they so far apart?

Interesting difference between the Met Office and BBC forecasts for my location, with the Met going for a hotter day Monday and then a little less hot on Tuesday, whereas BBC suggesting less tomorrow but then hotter on Tuesday! Wonder who will be correct?

Surprised to see the single 40 on this chart is so relatively close to the coast, would have thought that further inland would be the prone spots?

Still 30/31 degrees in East Anglia / South East on Wednesday on GFS 12Z. Not exactly much relief!

Only two or three runs don’t bring in the 20 isotherm on Monday; that’s pretty incredible really. Also notable that most continue the extreme heat into Tuesday too, unlike the ECM which seems to have a very different ending that day.

Agreed, St Jude was, for about an hour or so, really quite frightening. It never got to that level here today despite being quite a strong storm.

Would be interesting to see what the more recent runs showed, but I haven’t been able to find them posted anywhere yet.

Noticed this earlier; big difference in the lying snow amounts between the 18z and 03z UKV. Accumulations on 03z in EA small and only near the Suffolk and Essex coast, whereas North Kent gets plastered. Rogue run or a trend? I suspect these charts aren’t necessarily to be relied on, hence the mention of experimental but that’s quite a big change.

Suspect my proximity to the coast (about 10 miles inland) will mean mainly wet snow or sleet but certainly an amber snow warning for a large part of East Anglia isn’t something you see very often!

Wow, that low deepens very rapidly as it moves across the country next week on the 18Z. Real issue with high winds if that came off.

Well, had about 2-3cm here to start the day and a further top up to about 4 or 5cm about 10am but after that it's been dry and mostly sunny and any snow that was in the sunlight has all melted. Looking like some heavy showers expected for a time overnight as the wind direction changes before they become lighter and more scattered during tomorrow, so could be a repeat performance of today. Thursday looks dry and then it's all eyes on Friday potentially. I like snow but that's probably enough for me now, I'd prefer it to get more spring like as we go into March. However, hope that places that have missed out so far get some luck tomorrow with that wind direction change or on Friday with the approaching front.

Make that three Kesgrave representatives!

Wondering about the Northeastern extent of the streamer? Some maps have a potential 5-10 cms for eastern parts of Suffolk about 10 miles from the coast. Can remember benefitting from this setup in the past although obviously not to the same level as those down in SE Essex and Sussex/Kent.

Can remember it happening once while driving. All the cars had to stop where they were. When I tried to get out of the car, I slipped and had to hold on to it to stop myself falling over! It was like an ice rink; very dangerous.

Classic streamer territory. Wouldn't be surprised to see other streamers set up too, given all the instability and deep cold pool.

The Amber warning is because of the more persistent band of snow heading from the NE on Tuesday which is going to miss us to the West. EA and SE will be affected more by showers so any Amber warnings issued here will be probably be short notice as they will be based on streamers setting up. Lots going on!

Latest warnings from the MO suggest there could even be a couple of cms overnight tonight in coastal areas but the main action will still be later tomorrow and through Tuesday. Looks like it will all be showers (EA and SE won't get hit by the more persistent band which move NE-SW across areas further to the North) so perhaps a bit hit and miss but I'm sure we will see streamers setting up in places. Appears that the showers will start dying out on Wednesday pm as the winds swing more the SE and Thursday looks dry but bitterly cold. Then the huge question mark over Friday; currently suggests a period of snow maybe turning to sleet and rain later but this is really on a knife edge and won't be resolved for some days yet. All far more interesting than the usual Atlantic dross we get most of the time!

Good to see someone else from Kesgrave on here , looking very interesting from Monday onwards!

Also, the precipitation forecast percentages on the BBC app nowadays appear to have been randomly plucked from the air and are always really low, even when very unsettled weather is forecast. It's always been my bugbear with Meteogroup from when I used their Weatherpro app; they'll tell you there's a 10% chance of rain even though you know there's a frontal system heading in, then when it gets here and it starts tipping it down, it changes the probability to 100%! Great.

Yes, ARPEGE is being really stubborn with the placement of that HP but it is very slowly getting dragged North. I looked through the GEFS and can only find one member that looks like it out of 20, so hopefully it will soon ditch this and keep moving Northward. I rate the ARPEGE and often follow it in the summer; it's precipitation charts are usually the most accurate at short range. Not sure what it is like at these mid ranges though; it's very different to UKMO and ECM at Day 5 but surely the latter two will have a better handle on it?

Yes, quite a big difference in the strength of the vortex lobe over Greenland; ECM has a 950mb super low, whereas ICON has a flabby and sloppy looking 990mb area!

Yes, Ipswich beat Leicester 3-0 and you couldn't tell where the white lines were on the pitch; amazing it got finished really. I detest wind storms with every fibre of my being so I have everything crossed for lots of Southward corrections over the coming runs. Rather concerned that the 18Z takes it North again, there doesn't seem to be much of a consensus at all on its track at present. The UKMO isn't that interested in it at all (although I haven't seen the latest Fax charts) whereas the ECM and to a slightly lesser extent the GFS want to destroy the country with it!

Looks like that's probably it for today now here; been lucky really, it snowed for about 2 hours this morning giving a covering of about 4cm. Enough for a decent snowball fight with the kids anyway. Hopefully the places that didn't get any today will soon do so in the days and weeks ahead; plenty of winter to go.