ScottSnow
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I think it’s pretty certain cold next week now, possibly seven days of cold weather. Although it looks quite dry at the moment, often we see disturbances cropping up at short notice. I wouldn’t get too downbeat about snow chances yet. I know it’s been mentioned before but we only have to look at the past Nov/Dec cold snap for examples of this.
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Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24
ScottSnow replied to Midlands Ice Age's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Certainly fascinating changes going on. Regarding the volcanic eruption which has been rumoured on here to be the trigger for this increase in extent, do we know how long it’s impacts may last ? -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve just looked at the GFS 18z and thought exactly the same. People will be saying it’s the best model out there now. To me we are still just looking at the general pattern coming up, which is still promising across all of the models. Still a few days to go until we can even nail down what’s going to happen at the start of next week. Very exciting model watching at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The cold persisted until early/mid April in 2013. Check the model archives. There was a big frontal snow event on the 22nd March. The cold won and then persisted until mid April. You may be thinking of Jan 2013 when after two weeks of snowy weather, the mild air blasted through very quickly. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Messy setup on the GFS 12z but not unlike some of the ensemble members that we see. Still cold and potentially snowy run and maintains the overall theme. We are still five days away from the beginning of the northerly flow so there is going to be some changes from run to run. The theme is the most important thing at this stage. -
Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24
ScottSnow replied to Midlands Ice Age's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Great news in my opinion. Thanks for the updates @Midlands Ice Age -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It seems like the models are ‘upgrading’ the coming cold spell in terms of potency and duration, after the slight wobble a couple of days ago. Definitely very exciting model watching coming up. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve been out playing golf today and then doing some work this evening so I haven’t really looked at the models until now. It’s going great as far as I can tell. The general pattern is there across all the models. Obviously the theme varies on each model but that’s to be expected a week away. I think if we get to Wednesday evening and everything is still intact then we can start to get excited. Regarding snowfall, there’s no point in even thinking about amounts at this stage. Let’s get the cold in first and opportunities will arise. Take parts of Cumbria in early Dec, heavy snow popped up at very short notice. Overall though we are definitely heading in the right direction. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Have people not learnt their lesson from yesterday ? Yesterday the GFS had a wobble but then had a couple of great runs in the 18z and 0z. ECMWF has thrown out a run that could be better this morning. The direction of travel is still the same. We are heading in the right direction. We are still over a week away from when the cold weather is forecast. There is going to be ups and downs. I’m not going to worry. If we see some cross model agreement of what the ECMWF is showing then fair enough but at the moment, in my opinion, we are still on course for where we want to go. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To me the 12z ECMWF maintains the theme of blocking to our north /northwest the week after next. The evolution isn’t as clean as we would like but the models could quite easily turn back to a more favourable evolution tomorrow. We are still looking at charts that are over a week away. We aren’t going to know for certain what’s going to happen until this time next week. I do think one or two people on here have been premature in thinking it’s a done deal for cold. As witnessed from todays runs things can still change but it is still all to play for. Enjoy the ride ! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GFS 12z, although not what we want to see, is still showing pretty cold conditions and maybe ties in with what forecasters have been saying about colder weather coming towards the end of the month. To be fair cold and dry will do me fine if we get cold and snow later in the month or early Feb. Whatever happens it’s going to be interesting weather watching. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah next week was always forecast to be cold and dry. It’s the following week that is of interest… -
It happens every year.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Reading this thread over the past few days there has been so much self congratulation at charts +240hrs away. We may still see a decent spell of cold weather but it just seemed premature to me to be saying it’s a done deal. Hopefully this wobble is just that and we see the clean evolution return. The GFS has led us up the garden path so many times and let us down. -
The amount of time people must spend in there is mind boggling. There has been a lot of back slapping the past few days, when we are still over a week away from seeing it through. I’ve seen so many ‘nailed on’ cold spells go belly up to believe it yet. I’ve seen it go belly up within 90hrs so always try to proceed with caution. I would love to see a notable spell of cold weather on par with Jan 10, Dec 10, Mar 13 etc. Hopefully it comes to fruition this time.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m not too despondent yet. We still have a long way to go and there are always wobbles. If I remember the cold spell in early Dec disappeared from the models at one stage and we ended up with six days of lying snow here. -
Thank you. Very interesting reading.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
ScottSnow replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don’t think there is any doubt it will get somewhat colder around the 15th, the question is the depth of cold and the length. We have seen it go belly up plenty of times in the past. Hopefully with all the background signals etc, and from my amateur view of us ‘being due one’, we get over the line this time and see a notable spell of weather on par with Jan 10, Mar 13, Dec 10 etc. -
The poster Weather History will probably know. Ones that stand out to me Feb 94, Dec 95, Feb 96, Feb 01, Dec 09, Jan 10, Feb 10, Jan 13, Mar 13, Feb 21. These aren’t in order of severity. Feb 05 had a notable spell but I think was warm to start with, same with Feb 06. Feb 09 started cold but ended warm. Feb 12 was very close to being cold but Europe got the worst of it. Feb 18 may be in it but I think the first half was pretty mild.