ScottSnow

The GFS was showing mild outlier ops for next week that look like they will turn out to be true, so hopefully it’s picking up on something for a return to cold. There were quite a few times last week where we heard that the op was on its own in the ensembles regarding the return to mild.

I think it’s pretty certain cold next week now, possibly seven days of cold weather. Although it looks quite dry at the moment, often we see disturbances cropping up at short notice. I wouldn’t get too downbeat about snow chances yet. I know it’s been mentioned before but we only have to look at the past Nov/Dec cold snap for examples of this.

Certainly fascinating changes going on. Regarding the volcanic eruption which has been rumoured on here to be the trigger for this increase in extent, do we know how long it’s impacts may last ?

I’ve just looked at the GFS 18z and thought exactly the same. People will be saying it’s the best model out there now. To me we are still just looking at the general pattern coming up, which is still promising across all of the models. Still a few days to go until we can even nail down what’s going to happen at the start of next week. Very exciting model watching at the moment.

The cold persisted until early/mid April in 2013. Check the model archives. There was a big frontal snow event on the 22nd March. The cold won and then persisted until mid April. You may be thinking of Jan 2013 when after two weeks of snowy weather, the mild air blasted through very quickly.

Messy setup on the GFS 12z but not unlike some of the ensemble members that we see. Still cold and potentially snowy run and maintains the overall theme. We are still five days away from the beginning of the northerly flow so there is going to be some changes from run to run. The theme is the most important thing at this stage.

Great news in my opinion. Thanks for the updates @Midlands Ice Age

It seems like the models are ‘upgrading’ the coming cold spell in terms of potency and duration, after the slight wobble a couple of days ago. Definitely very exciting model watching coming up.

Not weather related but I took these photos of the coast up by Warkworth this morning. Fantastic coastline we have up here.

I don’t think we will see anything this week, possibly the hills might, but next week is supposed to be when the proper cold comes. I am not going to get too excited yet, if by Weds evening the cold charts are still showing then I will.

I was playing golf up in Northumberland earlier and driving back it started to rain as we approached Newcastle. The rain did become quite sleety in the heavier showers. To be fair I was expecting it to be mainly dry today.

I’ve been out playing golf today and then doing some work this evening so I haven’t really looked at the models until now. It’s going great as far as I can tell. The general pattern is there across all the models. Obviously the theme varies on each model but that’s to be expected a week away. I think if we get to Wednesday evening and everything is still intact then we can start to get excited. Regarding snowfall, there’s no point in even thinking about amounts at this stage. Let’s get the cold in first and opportunities will arise. Take parts of Cumbria in early Dec, heavy snow popped up at very short notice. Overall though we are definitely heading in the right direction.

Have people not learnt their lesson from yesterday ? Yesterday the GFS had a wobble but then had a couple of great runs in the 18z and 0z. ECMWF has thrown out a run that could be better this morning. The direction of travel is still the same. We are heading in the right direction. We are still over a week away from when the cold weather is forecast. There is going to be ups and downs. I’m not going to worry. If we see some cross model agreement of what the ECMWF is showing then fair enough but at the moment, in my opinion, we are still on course for where we want to go.

After the disappointment earlier, what a run this is

It’s like the GFS is playing with us. 222hrs and polar low incoming to Scotland.