Troubleatmill

Starting to get worried about the rest of winter, the GFS OP all the way to to t384 is shocking and the GEFS ens out to t240 all have strong heights to the south...ominous, of course it can change, but in just over a week we will be saying we are running out of time

So no real point looking at the models for a few days then? Apart from for anything in the nearer term?

Anyone know what this was like heading through Chester? Looks a barnstormer!

February can be frustrating month can't it, especially the last third unless you get severe cold aka 2018. On one hand the PV should be starting to weaken naturally, SSTs are at or approaching there coldest and yet solar energy is increasing

I think it's safe to say the GEFS are buying into the whole Scandinavian high possibility

Just as I was thinking I knew what the clever folk were saying

Meanwhile on our door step, Sunday in to Monday is still looking very wild , our friends over in Ireland/n Ireland could be in for a shocking time, sure if it carries on being modelled like this, the met will be out with the warnings

Agree there pal, on the latest ensembles there has been a very strong +NAO making it difficult for anything to get a foothold in scandi. Can and will change as it's so far out but certainly not great chart viewing. Who knows, the next runs might hint at the energy just off the eastern board digging south again, allowing ridging to set up as we want it too aka yesterday's 12z Main point was, if we we did get a true scandi high emerging, I wouldn't be too bothered about the 850s before hand (build it and they will come) as the ridging will pull cold air down from the arctic into Scandinavia as part of the building blocks All we can do is keep an eye out and hope

I've always been a little unsure about this, as if a true scandivian high was to set up, cold would soon be brought in around it. Using last night's 12z as an example, nothing much out east as you would expect with a westerly flow all the way to western russia, however as soon as the scandi high asserts itself..bingo! It's all about getting the scandi high to align itself right.

The ECM agreeing with you mate, although maybe sooner than Feb, with the majority going for a sceuro in the 192-240 range, with the deterministic in cluster 3 (only 8 members towing that path)

Fantastic pal, great to see and hear! Get foxes in my garden pretty often from the field at the back but never seen the owl yet...good to see nature doing well hey!

Looking at the early stamps, it's not without support, not much.. but it's there, see how the later frames fare

Is it a twit or a twoo? I have had a twit (female) for months, clearly on the pull for a bloke but none answering!

I wouldn't mind a freezing cold easterly, even if it was mostly dry. Just to be able to take the dog out without losing a boot every time in the mud

Defo! Wasn't expecting anything to really show on the later GFS frames so soon, apart from the building blocks ....ain't complaining though! GEFS Stamps will certainly be interesting

As much as I am buzzing about the snow we have had in the NW today (totally unexpected) I think the warm sector that was always forecast to come in, is now coming in. Hopefully those further east and north of where I am will escape too much melt, but think most of central & west Lancs and Merseyside & western Mancs are going to see quite a bit of melt before dusk Still bloody chuffed with what we have had though!!!!

Right on the very edge of the snow line now in Preston, have a good 2" to 3" hopefully it can stay on the ground until the colder 850's swing back in later

Once in a decade event for us isn't it! Totally unexpected, bit like the streamer we got in 2010 was too . Should be a bank holiday every time it snows!

Still snow in Preston, so hopefully it'll still be around for you when you get home laterz

Yes mate, although first lying snow since Dec 2010 for me incredibly. A warm up is happening from the weekend and default winter temperate meh weather is going to set in for the rest of Jan. However following on from the 12z GEFS last night, this morning's ECM anomolies are also showing in the very far reaches where the next 'chase' is likely to come with a euro high perhaps tracking north to scandi. Way to far out to get excited, but hopefully in the next few days we will start to see some decent scandi high charts appearing at the very end of the GFS runs & associated ensembles

Well that's it, it's snowed, I'm happy now

About the same in Preston Will, maybe fraction more since you sent this. The difference over here is that this will go down in folklore as the great blizzard of 24 Even the centre of Preston looks nice in the snow!

Nice surprise!!

I know mate, it was tongue in cheek #regional discussion buddy

The graph ensembles for the 12z GEFS don't paint a pretty picture, however the postage stamps are starting to show the next blocking ideas