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Theresnoway

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Everything posted by Theresnoway

  1. johncam I’m not predicting some kind of winter nirvana, but blocks do tend to put up more of a fight than often modelled. So some kind of a middle ground would be most likely IMHO.
  2. Frosty. Having been on this forum for a very long time and gained a feel for peoples weather preferences, you actually got me there! I was thinking well of Frosty’s thrown in the towel, we’re all doomed!
  3. Mike Poole There was a period down south between roughly 2000 and 2010 where we had hardly any snow, then came along 2010, 2013 and 2018. So although we won’t get favourable conditions every year, I still believe the right synoptics will come around eventually, even given longer term changes in climate.
  4. Stuie Very wise, but occasionally a trend does get picked up on , and come to fruition. Having not been following the models all winter, I probably have more patience and hope than others.
  5. Stuie Indeed, on the short ensembles shown, all looks pretty mild. I believe the excitement for cold weather fans comes after this period, which may or may not materialise. Lots of changes to come, but better than the weather being shown in recent days.
  6. I’m personally not sure a Red will be issued, impact and certainty would both need to increase to hit that threshold. It may happen somewhere, further north and (or) west, I doubt it for central southern England.
  7. It might be IMBY, but I would say a fair assessment based on all the model output. Unfortunately, it’s not IMBY!
  8. Expecting rain, hoping for snow! There is still a lot of variations in the models, personally I hope the low struggles more than is modelled against the cold
  9. Ah sorry, I thought the first chart was 1am Wednesday? What time of day is the second chart you posted for? Thanks
  10. If we do get any snow this week, I expecting a similar situation, not with regards to depth, but melt. Roll on Wednesday morning and enjoy the twists and turns before then.
  11. UKV 03z high res still has some snow for the south Wednesday into Thursday.
  12. If you take the operationals as gospel, then a very fair assessment. The models have definitely wobbled today, that is for sure. But given the difficulty forecasting the current setup, the varying model and ensemble outputs, I won’t be writing snow off in the south off just yet. Let’s see what the models show in the next 48 hours, I think we’ll have a better idea then. More concerned than yesterday? Yes! Throwing my toys out of the pram, not yet .
  13. Given the amount of variance we’re seeing with regards to the position of Thursday’s low, within different runs and models, I think using postage stamps as a guide to probability is a better way forward than taking each deterministic as gospel.
  14. The UK Met going for 60% chance of the low on Thursday / Friday crossing southern areas, with the cold block putting up more resistance than some runs are showing. 20% further north with rain in the south and 20% further south, with the precipitation in north France. Still all to play for! Hopeful for a good set of 12zs https://youtu.be/aZDJpeH8jFg
  15. Looks like end of next week / next weekend could be our best chance of significant snow, but if the lows are too far north we see rain and too far south it misses us. Just the right latitude and Boom
  16. I wouldn’t be too disappointed, it’s one det run 7 days out. Still all to play for in terms of potential outcomes.
  17. Hey! is there a way to ignore certain users posts via my phone? There are some posters I would really like to use it on. Thanks
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