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Duane S.

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Duane S. last won the day on December 24 2018

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  1. It does now very much look like there will be a proper reversal up above. One would imagine that would not be without consequence going through March, giving a cold March. An increased probability of anyway. But after this winter
  2. Finally a pull back of the AH westwards is now trending later in the month. Any WAA in a NW /N / NE direction has been shown to be futile if southern heights and going to get filled back in. Taking into account the background signals, which back up the above, there seems very little doubt that the final winter shot (or, window of opportunity) IS incoming for around the last week of the month and into March…
  3. I must say I do find it a tad strange that we aren’t getting a few more outlandish super low 850s ensemble members in far FI. I’ve been critical of the continual ‘Iberian heights’ talk by some on here but yeah they do seem super stubborn this winter. I think that whilst CC has no doubt played its part, right now it’s probably the ENSO state that is main driver of it. When you take the below strat signature into account + activity in the Pacific , I can’t help but think, surely, we will end up with a cold spell in the not too distant future. But in what has been the most frustrating winter I can remember, quite possibly not!
  4. Cheshire Freeze Yep, we’ve got all the hallmarks of a cold March incoming
  5. ‘Iberian High’ removal looks a safe bet now… (has looked for a while TBF) This is at the extreme end but isn’t without support in the ENS. A very unusual chart and will send much delight to the snow starved Alps…
  6. As has been showing up more and more in the past few days, heights are definitely trending to drop below us going through next week. The MJO influence starting to shine through on the output. Expect more and better of the same. Winter 23/24 chase #3 now well underway
  7. A very positive day from a coldy’s POV. Eastern Pacific activity showing up is now on the charts downstream. Slow erosion of EU heights definitely trending. Even the Wedge option gaining some traction. Although, personally, I don’t think cold will arrive via this route.
  8. Much better signs of a change in our favour, albeit possibly quite a slow transition, from second week of Feb onwards. Very difficult to pinpoint many (any?!) details at this stage though… The MJO dipole progression out of the Indian Ocean, through East Asia and into the Pacific was fairly rapid. It has continued motoring and has already powered through the western Pacific, where it will probably slow down. That quick-ish eastward propagation I assume was aided by the existing ENSO state. Although interference between the two tends to create a lot of noise and especially downstream in model output. Net result though, it is virtually into P7 at a decent (maybe surprising?) amplitude. Then perhaps… a slowly decaying El Niño may (just) prevent a more natural slide back into the COD later in the month, and the MJO even potentially progressing further to phase 8 Certainly not a prediction, just musings, but I think it will definitely be worth watching. A decent amplitude 7/8 for a period of time would (in all probability) greatly improve our late winter prospects. Longer term output… Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5025525
  9. @joggs It had a ‘91 feel about it to me. In no way would I predict we get what followed that though
  10. Much better signs of a change in our favour, albeit possibly quite a slow transition, from second week of Feb onwards. Very difficult to pinpoint many (any?!) details at this stage though… The MJO dipole progression out of the Indian Ocean, through East Asia and into the Pacific was fairly rapid. It has continued motoring and has already powered through the western Pacific, where it will probably slow down. That quick-ish eastward propagation I assume was aided by the existing ENSO state. Although interference between the two tends to create a lot of noise and especially downstream in model output. Net result though, it is virtually into P7 at a decent (maybe surprising?) amplitude. Then perhaps… a slowly decaying El Niño may (just) prevent a more natural slide back into the COD later in the month, and the MJO even potentially progressing further to phase 8 Certainly not a prediction, just musings, but I think it will definitely be worth watching. A decent amplitude 7/8 for a period of time would (in all probability) greatly improve our late winter prospects. Longer term output…
  11. @TEITS 100% what I was thinking. The 06z has got an old school Easterly formation written all over it. I’m not so sure heights would naturally fill back in underneath us again a couple of days later on, as the 06z FI charts would simply have it. I’d happily bank that chart at D11 and take my chances thereafter. I think upstream forcings would be more in our favour at this point.
  12. I agree with @Mike Poole, I'd say the bulgey Iberian high is more of a consequence than a driver in its own right, but... at the point of forming, it now becomes a driver. It is more than just semantics as well. It is probably just too simplistic to label xyz as a pure and simple driver. The feeback mechanisims involved within the atmosphere will have us going around all chasing our tails as we seek the chicken from the egg (or vica versa etc etc etc... ) . I tend to view it on a simple pretext that high pressure fills in as low pressures are created and driven around the globe. Not withstanding of course, the fact that low pressures can't exist without high pressures and and the continued redressing of equilibrium in the atmosphere.
  13. It will change of course but thats incredible how the mean, over 6 days, steadfastly refuses to enter phase 8 ! Amplified P7 should (eventually) at least help our cause P6 at this stage of winter in this ENSO state is more of a wild card I’d say?
  14. This needs addressing. Sorry but this is no more than attention seeking durge. That or a complete inability to understand complex nuances involved. Not what those exact nuances are, but that such layered complexities exist and what that means for the eventual 'weather on the ground' in the UK. I ask you... what exactly have you brought to the party?? Respect goes to all those trying to learn (which, let's face it, is all of us to one degree or another every winter). Using phrases like 'another major fail' 'background zealots' clearly harbours an agenda. This sort of dross should not be accepted as an argument, just because you are entitled to 'an opinion'. Today's societal clamour to show 'two-sideism' unfortunately gives some validity to this sort of agenda-driven rubbish. So, should we take note of the likes of @Catacol @Tamara (and there are others as well), who go to huge lengths to lay out their thinking and workings (with caveats or course) or... or do I listen to Captain Hindsight and Dr Schadenfreude afterwards? Hmmm, tough one that... The crux (always conveniently ignored) is that without potential in the first place, we will always get zip in the UK. The clever part is highlighting that potential (irrespective of the outcome). Cold spells cannot appear without potential but potenital does not mean it will occur
  15. Consistency it is not (although, Op aside, an improvement though)
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