minus86BriJ

It is only the 14th of Feb and with semi reliable FI, from an overall trend perspective, only going out to about 10 days anything could pop up come the 24th. I seem to remember a recent, not so successful from a cold return POV, SSW that dragged on for months bringing below average temperatures all the way right through May. I suspect more cold is to come.

I’d like give a quick random thumbs up to the mods if I may. As a long term reader only I’m finding the model discussion thread over the past few weeks a much more palatable feast of michelin star posts without the side order of blue cheesy trolling snipes. Great job, well done. Nuff said

I’ve reported this post for being way too excellent, as a lurking layman these kinds of posts are pure gold ??

There might be some of this for y’all so, lovely fist sized flakes hammering down now.

My neighbors arent liking this weather either, I’m out weeding the garden but it’s too warm for shorts.

Look, everyone knows getting a decent cold snowy spell in these parts is nigh on impossible in any given winter. Hope casting to me isn’t even a derogatory term, it describes those members who are genuinely searching with hopeful optimism for the elusive white gold. The naysayers that prod and jibe at others in here might be right 80% of the time past day ten but even in failure it’s 100% more fun and rewarding being a Jedi.

Aww, I was contemplating liking the first edit, oh well.

It’s only weather to normal people, noone hanging around in here is normal

Is that an indication of the high ridging north, the western edge winding the low up like a spinning top keeping the low in situ?

Met Eireann 11:04 Update: "Thursday remains very uncertain but current indications suggest it will start cloudy in most areas with a band of rain spreading from the southwest. The rain possibly turning to snow as it pushes northeastwards but there is a lot of uncertainty in relation to this feature at the moment. It will be very cold with temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees. Frost and ice will develop on Thursday night along with further wintry showers." Not a wholly inspiring update but you never know. Anyone on higher ground in the heavy precip zone are looking good for a day off work on Friday, the rest of us will have to wait and see.

Ahh the memories...2/3/18

The infinitely complex interaction of macro drivers will always keep FI at 4-5 days followed by flip flopping ensemble chaos from run to run, especially if your focus is on the pimple that is the UK and Ireland from a global perspective. My point is winter is NOT over just yet, yes we need a huge slice of luck in the next couple of weeks but no one can deny that there’s always a chance. Feb91, March18 did actually happen.

The lads letting off the balloons today might come up with a different outlook later on, the chances may be low to zero point zero one but hey, chin up old boy eh.

Is the downwelling data entered into the model algorithms manually or how does that work? I don't know what percentage the models rely on historically analogous set ups/data sets to produce their runs (massive overly simplified I know!) but being as rare an event as it is I would have thought a trop downwelling would cause absolute model chaos! Models flipping within 24 hours where over-stating even the smallest variable would effect T-12 never mind T-144 and beyond. Was the failed beast last week a victim? Are we all victims? Why do I care??? I'm now lying down...

Yeh snowing away nicely in Amsterdam as well. https://balticlivecam.com/cameras/netherlands/amsterdam/dam-square/ I lived there for 2 years recently without a flake of snow.. send me to Russia in a box and you'll all be guaranteed 2 foot plus ?️

Totally aggre with this. The macro picture hasn’t changed longer term and one aggressive low isn’t going to trump all the effects of the SSW going forward.

Schadenfreuders dream here this morning, you gotta love em though The influence of the beast from the west coming out of states may be overstated by the ECM after the initial data is fed in, it seems hard to believe one system can disrupt two large HP cells hell bent on a love affair so drastically. I’m gonna check back it in at 18:24, I don’t look at the models anymore, it’s much more fun just catching up in here ?

Is it fair to say that the 12z ECM might have misconstrued or over/underinflated one or even a percentage of one of the macro variables to a point where any resultant output is scuppered from the outset? Would this error (for want of a better word) not have the same effect on the entire ensemble suite to boot? Like many others I’ve been following this forum and the models for donkeys years and without question the only constant is inconsistency. Entire ensemble suites can and have turned from one extreme to another before you can finish your cornflakes. The ECM threw out a “downgrade” or two already this week, personally I think the overseers are just trying to mess with feb1991s head (it’s working (only poking F91)) Roll on amarach

Excellent Post KW, ideal for newbs and a friendly reminder to all just how quickly things can and do change...sometimes even for the better.

UKMO looks like cold rain for my part of the planet as progged by the Irish met this morning from Thursday through the weekend. I’m still confident of favorable HLB setting up down the line. Is it behind door number 1, perhaps it’s door number 3?!.....find out after the break

ALL ABOARD's post earlier comparing a Day12 chart, up to the development and the dawn of the beast last year, with the actual Day 0 chart 24th Feb is definitely one to study and absorb. There'll be wibbling and wobbling for a few days yet.

? Did you accidently repost this, surely this was posted before santy came?

I get the impression over the last week that your a bit disappointed with missing out on the serious/dangerous snow totals back in your adopted home. What's it at now, 5, 6 feet?!! I'm not going to say I have a 'feeling' that some juicy charts are about to emerge from the long grass over the next few days but....actually scrap that, I can feel it in my waters!

Happy Chrim everyone, I hope santy brought you a delightful enough gift to distract you for a least half an hour from the emotionally damaging start forecasts and grinchy model outputs.

Interesting layman level read about the upcoming SSW from a US with extra cheese perspective: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/might-changes-in-the-stratosphere-polar-vortex-soon-trigger-an-arctic-outbreak-in-the-us/70006934