Magadan

I have loved snow all my life and accordingly endured annual despair at our mild winters. Thus it was a deciding factor when I agreed to my wife's request back in 2016 to move to Latvia (she's Russian and we needed medical treatment for our kids at some of the clinics in Riga). But have you ever heard the saying, "too much of a good thing is a bad thing"? Right now I am ready to emigrate to Marbella, let's put it that way. The highest temperature forecast here for the next week is -6C, with night time lows of -22C forecast and really, truly, madly, deeply, I have had enough.

Yes, the locals here are saying this winter is milder than usual, but we've had approximately 8 weeks of snow on the ground thanks to an unusually heavy snowfall in early November, but when the locals call this "mild" it would be considered epic cold by UK standards.

Another thing I have noticed living in Latvia is glaciated snow and patches of ice that kids can slide on. Back in my childhood in Northern Ireland and even into my teens, children used to make slides on the icy pavements; it seems that's another thing of the past for most of the British Isles, sad to say.

I haven't posted on here for something like 5-6 years, but continued to lurk all that time. But this is a subject close to my heart and was a contributory factor in agreeing to my wife's pleas to move to Latvia (her own motives were medical). I am now experiencing my first "real" winter in a long, long time and boy, it feels good. It snows here pretty much as frequently as it rains at home. Anyway, does anyone subscribe to the theory that UK winters post WW2 until the late 1970s / early 1980s were cooler because of the debris kicked up by WW2? I have heard that idea, but am naturally more inclined to think it has to do with sun activity.

You mean the Met Office was nowcasting whereas these chaps were predicting it weeks in advance. Personally I don't give a toss about when a storm is meant to blow through. It's LRFs that are important, i.e., trends for the various seasons. Farmers & agribusinesses need the latter, wedding planners and Morris dancers need the former.

Only addressing this now - busy with a nasty baby. All I'm thinking is, now that Asia wants to eat meat and has a growing economy to pay for it, and as a result there is a new and rapidly growing commodities bubble, your level of seasonal trend forecasting - which frankly has blown me away with its accuracy this year - would be worth its weight in gold to these people. But you can't get it to market because mainstream prefers to faff about with computer models using dumbed down non-linear equations fed with erratic and inconsistent data. Well, the winter still has a fair bit to run and I'll be watching this closely, but for now I can tentatively say this offers the prospect of the best agricultural grade LRF available to anyone anywhere from what I've seen and that means you should be able to capitalise on that. That's me speaking as a "rain-maker" for regulated and non-regulated investment syndicates / funds in the UK, albeit my field is property rather than new / innovative weather forecasting techniques!

Speak for your own back yard, was not the case here.

Disappointed there's no reply to my post yet...

So mainstream "received wisdom" has rejected your methodology? I'm just wondering, what would it take for you two chaps to get taken more seriously? With wealthy investors making a flight to safety in the form of commodities (esp. grains and other staples for the emerging Asian markets), surely there is a need for this exceptional quality of long range forecasting?

I wouldn't worry. These models are junk beyond a few days, IMHO. Better to go by overall trends and pin your hopes on that than impossible-to-achieve accuracy from models. And from what I've read so far, the trend is looking good for a cold, cold winter.

FI has zero credibility to me any more. I'm now at the point of looking at models as being worthless beyond very, very short time frames. Looking for a consensual truth in the ensembles is like a herd of sheep expecting strength in huddled, collective weakness when faced with a wolf. I'd much rather see historical-statistical modelling that takes into account solar activity, volcanic activity and other wider factors, than the current setup of fragmented data samples pumped into simplified model algorithms developed over 2 decades of mildness.

Been snowing heavily here since approx 9am... And sticking too, thanks to a sharp frost overnight. Really wasn't expecting this, having been so caught up in the "Pest from the West" versus the "Beast from the East" tussle on the models.

Snowing heavily here for approx 30 mins.

Much is made by the mildies-cum-anti-coldies of the plus side of milder weather, i.e., lower heating bills, better driving conditions, fewer pensioners in casualty, etc., but that's just one side of the story. Some people, like me, have health issues that are eased by colder weather, oddly enough. Chiefly, I sleep much better in the cold spells than I do in mild weather because I have a bizarre overheating problem in my body related (I suspect) to bad circulation, even though I'd be above average fitness wise. My wife can't even share the same room as me any more as she needs to be insanely warm. Of course, summer time for me is torment, with a fan pointed at the bed and earplugs in to cut out the noise, as the sweat pours out of me. I often have to keep a water spray on hand to cool my legs down... I basically sleep best in a room temperature of around 1-3 C to be comfortable, and with a duvet to be snug(ish) in with the option of sticking my limbs out for the occasional 15-20 minutes throughout the night to cool down again. So yes, my nickname is "The Iceman" and that's one reason why I so love the cold and hate mildness, and get so frustrated at people being all overjoyed at yet more mild weather, as if this country isn't mild enough.

Worst fears indeed. The turnaround in the models at this stage just makes such a mockery of all that went before, so that's me finished with model watching, at least until a new methodology comes along that's actually consistent. Maybe throwing chicken entrails against the wall or something.

Moderate snow shower here 3 hours ago (only posting it now), lying on ground, cars, etc. Nothing to write home about, but the roads are white with it.

Of course you would, but to be fair to them they've provided a rationale for their predictions rather than towing the line dictated to them by the politicians who want global warming to be real so that they can tax everyone to death and cede more power to a supranational government.

It's but the tip of the iceberg, according to this excellent article of yesterday which implicates the US government as well: http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/climategate_cru_was_but_the_ti.html (Thanks to Joe B'stardi's blog for the link). PS - maybe this requires it's own new thread? It's relevant to this one but is a biggie in its own right. Mods can decide!

Great idea re the model guides... It would be a real help to getting novices up to speed on the more technical matters.

Chaps, 2 years ago I spent the best part of a month in Kyrgyzstan (Jan & Feb) and while for the most part the cold was on a level way beyond anything I've ever known in the UK (you know, spit from an upstairs window and it hits the ground solid), there was nonetheless some drippy conditions during the daylight hours for a few days. I think our perceptions of a "proper" cold winter are continuous below freezing conditions when in fact that's not always the case even in seriously cold continental climates.

An absolute plastering of wet, slushy snow today. But looking towards the east the sky seems more rainy (i.e. grey) rather than the white sky of the west.

Snowing moderately here now for around 20 minutes, lying well on the ground despite some light sleety rain overnight.

Very light rain / sleet here (see? no ramping!) just now, just after a light ground frost formed in some patches.

This is a cold winter, not a mere "cold snap" and I'm glad people are starting to see the error of the models' ways. Look at how this thing is set up across the entire northern hemisphere, look at the bigger picture re the sun and adjust expectations accordingly, rather than deferring to models developed over 20 years or so of mild winters.

Now you're talking. For me, that's the only way to go.