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wellington boot

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    Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
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  1. Occasionally you'll get the showers dying out as the steering changes and winds switch round, before they pep up again when the new flow is established. But I doubt it this time. Drivers moving against us, air drying out, and the die off is fairly dramatic and covers the whole sector at this point.
  2. Yes this won't help. The best case scenario is that a) we squeeze a few more hours of decent showers from the current set up, and there is still some formation and building in places so some at least might get lucky with this, then b) that we get some parallel shower streams on the easterly breeze later. Have seen that before even down here away from London, and every little helps...
  3. We're going through our last 15 min yellow blob for now, and now that everything is covered it's all accumulating and things are looking increasingly snow drenched. Frustrating gaps and lack of intensity after this looking at the radar, however. High pressure / lack of real instability is the problem. It just goes to show how quickly you can have a serious fall though with a good shower stream. We've been blanketed within a couple of hours of decent showers, whereas some of the best events in the past 15 years have seen a day or more of showers packing in.
  4. Just popped out on errands here in the snow capital of the high weald. Snow settling the main roads currently, lanes now covered, all is white, and we are officially living in a winter wonderland. Looks like we have a good half hour of decent to good shower activity lined up, but nothing behind really looks like it matches the showers this region has had over the past couple of hours. Would be a shame if it doesn't keep up till evening, as this could turn into a real event.
  5. After 4-6 hours of wasted snow, the big showers have arrived and we've been in a little streamer for the past 10-15 mins. Rapidly turned grass and greenery mostly white, but lane and paths settling very patchily at best. Need the showers to pack in and temps/dew points to drop for this to become a more significant fall.
  6. It's not rubbish. I haven't seen stats recently, not historically it verifies better than at least one of the other GFS runs. In sure there was a year where it was top. It just has a reputation... It is possible that for some reason it tends to emphasise certain setups popular with members on here, but even if so, and even if those don't come off more often than not, that alone doesn't make it worse than the other versions.
  7. How seriously do we we take this amber warning? Clearly it mentions threat to life from flying debris, which is different from a yellow warning. Question is how strongly i advise pregnant wife not to go into work in Tunbridge Wells area. I could also drive her myself. Has anyone been out on roads or heard reports in this area? Obviously the further NW you go the lesser the intensity, and we're further South. Just looking out of the window at the trees all around it looks pretty wild, but we're quite sheltered from S/SW winds so difficult to know how it will look out there.
  8. Winds here have increased dramatically in the past couple of hours, and we're 15-20 miles inland. The noises are quite alarming at times. A key factor is being surrounded by large trees mostly in leaf. A couple of gusts so far have persisted for a good 30 seconds and the growing roar is quite something. Looking at the charts, you'd expect another 12 hours of similar conditions and a significant peak around 6-7am. That said, most forecasts indicate a relatively modest increase on what we have now at that point. Either way, this level of wind for such a long period is highly likely to bring down trees, block roads, disrupt trains.
  9. I think just being inland is very significant. We're South of Tunbridge Wells on a hill, less than 20 miles from the coast, and the models in the last couple of days have shown 60-90mph gusts. But the MO says 30mph wind with 50mph gusts, which is distinctly unexceptional. Their forecast presumably involves more nuance, topographical elements, and human input, so it's the one to trust, but looking at models and maps it's hard to believe it could be so mild.
  10. A good resource or explanation on sting jets would be welcome, since it seems an interesting (and potentially consequential) phenomenon. I trust @Tamara absolutely, and someone else on here was also adamant that this is the wrong type of low. However, the explanation for this indicated that a sting jet low involves a separate leading cold front, with a warm front behind, maybe a wrap around occluded front also? In any case, I compared the front layout on the 1987 FAX with today's FAX, and they are remarkably similar. Both have a warm then cold then wrap around occluded front. Similar low position, similar trajectory, etc. Would love to understand the distinction better. Regarding French contributors who can apparently see a sting jet forming already, i think that would be a relief -storm is still way out West and they only last a few hours so would be done by landfall...
  11. Yes snowing in Wadhurst also. Very fine but more than drizzle. Interesting that BBC (based on ECM) has a couple of hours of snow here later in afternoon. Not sure I believe it, but I suppose it might be picking up on the potential for showers off the channel. The activity now has some streamer characteristics, even if the current two are drifting West unfortunately...
  12. Really?! Maybe it's just a medway thing, although your altitude is good. We're only 25m higher than you here in the weald, and it's icy and silent. Final tally here is towards 4 inches. Will have better idea tomorrow. One car had 3 inches, the other 4... Drove a few miles East towards lamberhurst on a rescue mission and everything is just blanketed. Looked like they had 6 inches in places.
  13. I don't think so. Between them the models had this pretty much nailed, and all we could get is a sprinkle as the tail over the channel gets sucked back NW'wards and dissipates. Wouldn't expect much though, if anything. Nothing shows it hanging together and dropping anything meaningful as it goes...
  14. It was just on the met office website this morning when i looked at my village. Had the two snow flake symbol from 6pm - midnight, plus a couple of hours of light snow before and after. I'm sure they didn't specify that on any live broadcast!
  15. Think that's probably it. There's a band to the SE that might clear NW if I'm reading some of those models correctly and if they're correct... And worth keeping an eye on things... But i think we're largely done down here. No complaints, albeit it's just a touch disappointing when a long evening and night of snow ends six hours early...
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