pyrotech

We forecast in March that 2023 would be similar to 2018 in regards to wildfire (UK) Normal years see wildfire season between late March and late May. We forecast a very quiet season in those times - which include the Easter holidays. Similar to 2018, we forecast that June would be the prolonged wildfire season this year. Exactly what has happened, so although some key differences - in many ways 2023 is similar to 2018

Although i took a lot of flack for presenting a forecast that high pressure was more likely for UK second half of August. Here i go again. The MJO is the main driver that has been out of sync for us to get at least some form of summer. There are other factors driving it including the move of ENSO towards El Nino from a triple dip La Nina. The MJO forecast charts are no different from any other forecast. However consensus has been very evident of a phase somewhere between 5 and 7. The charts are now showing subtle hints that the forecast may be correct and a glimmer of hope will be here for those wanting just a hint of summer. The discussion about North / South split It is a very likely scenario at this time of year, due to other teleconnections and influences on our Jet stream. However i feel, looking at the evolution of the changes in the Atmosphere that for a time this will be an all UK high, not just South. Call that a hunch if you like. Sea temperatures in North Atlantic are the big anomaly and that will effect just how amplified the jet stream is and how long that bit of summer lasts. I expect hints of this to show up on GFS sometime over the weekend coming as the middle of August gets into its timeframe.

The consensus is phase 6 and has been for a week. Phase 5 and 7 would also give higher pressure closer to North West Europe. Right now and for the last 7 days models have indicated the likelihood of phase 6 as a forecast. Spagetti charts play around with phase 5 and 7 and that is what you would expect if 6 is forecast. The Models here on Netweather should pick up this trend at the end of their runs (15 +10 day forecast) ( GFS around 26th July and ECM around 2nd August) Thats due to the lag between MJO and effects here. There is always uncertainty in the charts, GFS, ECM and UKMO its why we discuss them here. In this case, i would be more worried about how far it gets into the phase, if we get out of the COD we really could do with getting a little more distance from it indicating a stronger phase.

Unfortunately a North West / South East split is very common at this part of summer, so on that score you are probably right, we will have to wait for GFS and then ECM to decide the orientation of the high, which although More likely to ridge into the South, it may sit right on top of us bringing a taste of summer to all. It is a wait and see at this timeframe but that phase 6 at least gives us all a chance. In the next week or so the models should start hinting at a scenario

The models are showing exactly what you would expect them to show. This unsettled period has been on the cards and shown by the MJO prediction. We will see an improvement as the MJO will go into phase 6 early August so around 10th of August high pressure is highly likely around North West Europe. I am quite surprised at some of the more seasoned posters on here as they understand the MJO. This is a main driver of our weather and watch the models respond to this as we head towards August. We have been in the wrong phases and in the Circle of death for July and finally looking to break free with the 10 - 14 day lag for us in UK

Thats around 80 miles further South Thats also using same model and same time, also utilising same model run 24 hours apart. That is the best method of comparing model runs. It does not guarantee cold but certainly shows the trend is again towards the low trying to get pushed further South, plus the cold following suit.

Hopefully Para is finally getting it right That would be perfect, even jay would be happy with that ✻✻✻

And a win !

Brady pretty much sums things up The met office model which we do not see as public, is still showing some Snow Friday into Saturday but becoming rain later, in fact whole South UK in the less cold air before Wednesday, however it is also changing the output on each run. The warm air is initially likely to flow over the colder more dense air but that does two things, one it cools the warm air allowing some precipitation, but also the colder dryer air will start to kill off the precipitation. Some areas could see freezing rain for a time. Models certainly going wrong way after initially pushing a classic breakdown back, it now looks like a damp squib with transient snow if lucky for many.

For me its not the low thats the problem, the Azores high ridges to try to join up with the Scandi high. That blocks the jet Stream. Without that we may have had a corridor allowing slider lows. So close but no cigar for Far South and West UK. Little bit envious of those on the East UK Then we have possibility that the Scandi high moves South East. I am guilty of relying on the MJO phase to hold the high in position, and eventually travel westwards, but other drivers overcome the lagged effect of MJO, but for how long?

GFS keeps us mainly dry but looks perfect to maintain cold, except it squeezes the Scandinavian high into Greece, that would be goodbye winter hello Spring, however its just another option. I say that because its against the MJO, so it would be a strong push by the low to force that, not impossible but just another of 100s of evolutions. Something we can say we are used to at the moment is models that can not handle the current synoptics.

Met office Model, shows snow Friday, 3 hours. Then Snow Saturday that becomes Marginal later as heads towards London and decays. Seems cold may be fighting back late Sunday but close call, temps 3 - 5 c on this run late Sunday near M4 belt. It looks like a slow push East that goes nowhere, this is too tight to call .

Looks like few Cm's and maybe fair bit more but at this time with so much uncertainty lets just talk about potential.We do not need hopes raised at this time. it looks very likely we will see snow as Atlantic attempts breakdown, problem is if transient or not,

Yep , looks okay, Some snow, just need keep the cold into next week for longevity

Icon is playing with an idea fairly similar to UKMET hi res