Looks great Nick, thanks. I'm looking at the link now - a bit hefty though. I'm sure we could "gleen" (if that's a word) some practical applications from it. I'm hoping to find documentation of this type that a TAF writer could translate to specific forecast reasoning: ".....during summer months, under the following flow (fill in the blanks), the model tends to warm the upper cold pocket too quickly at T+36 therefore minimizing the thunderstorm potential in that region. You should adjust model output by cooling these thermal pockets by 10 - 15 degrees and re-evaluate convective potential based on corrected upper level temperatures...." I made that whole thingup but that's roughly what we're trying to pin down. If anyone out there has seen or developed this sort of study, I'd appreciate being pointed in that direction>