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PubliusEnigma

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Everything posted by PubliusEnigma

  1. Cheers Chris, could be well be a headache in the forecasts. If it tracks more to the west a large swathe of Central england could see snowy and slushy conditions culminating in one hell of a freeze up on Tuesday morning
  2. You've over complicated what I stated I was pointing to the scenarios painted by the GFS, ECM and UKMO. Just those three. One of them is likely to be accurate. They are all very different. One is a very cold and wintry east or North easterly, One is a slack northerly and dry for many. One is a mild and dryish south westerly. If you toss a three sided pyramid it can only land on one side, and it has a 33.3% chance of landing on that side. In the same way, two of the outputs are likely to be quite wrong compared to the eventual outcome. Most modern day output us formulated using Math and percentage variables.
  3. This is going to be one to watch carefully on Monday, as that Low swings in from the north west with a warm sector wrapped around it, depending on the track South east, some areas could see a lot of snow, some in the warm sector may see wet snow or cold rain. A bit of a forecasters night mare. And after dark expect to see a lot of warnings for Ice.
  4. Exactly and if you factor in the GFS mild output, technically the ECM has a one in three chance of being correct, or a 66% chance of being wrong. Lets see what the pub run serves up in an hour or so.
  5. Interesting to catch up on SST's in the North Sea. Currently showing at +7 to +8oC which is a notch down on last year from memory.
  6. Cant remember ever seeing such an enormous difference ECM Freezer of the GFS ?? JMA is nearer to the GFS output and not cold at all with Southerlies over the UK. NOGAPS is better than the ECM ! :o UKMO Offers a third solution with direct northerlies and High pressure close by. A typical cold dry northerly and sunny in most places. Someone is going to get a very large dollop of egg on their face !! NOF
  7. This evening's ECM is beginning to show something a little more seasonal in its output. On Sunday westerly winds will bring a mixture of rain and sleet showers to Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. A cool breeze in the east and south under brightening skies as cloudy weather moves across into Southern Europe.. Temps of around 5 or 6oC in the south, and similar temps in the north. Isolated wintry showers possible over exposed eastern coasts in the north. A different day on monday with light winds generally and a very light south westerly in SE England. Possibly quite foggy in some central areas and where any fog lingers it could stay quite cold all day. Wintry showers possible in the Far west in Cornwall and SW Wales. Becoming colder on Tuesday with a raw easterly breeze, Rain and sleet showers on eastern coasts turning to hail and soft hail in land with some snow flurries over higher ground, frosty after dark in many areas. Some light snow showers in Kent overnight. ON wednesday winds veer more South Easterly with strengthening winds in the SW. Skies becoming overcast and leaden from the west. Temps around 3oC generally. Some eastern coastal areas will be dry and brighter. Risk of rain and sleet over high ground flirting with parts of the SW. Sleet/hail/snow showers possible in Eastern Scotland. Thursday, will be a cold day, with a moderate easterly breeze in many parts. Overcast in the south with snow at times, however rain or sleet nearer the south coast. The snow band likely to be heaviest in a line from Gloucester east to Cambridge, drier from the midlands northwards although some wintry showers will move inland from the east coast, falling as sleet, soft hail and snow. On Friday winds lighten and turn gentle North westerly as a ridge of High pressure tries to build from the west. A cold start for many. Some sleet and snow showers for North Western parts of Scotland and NW England and N Ireland. Mostly dry and sunny eslewhere. A sharp frost on friday night. On Saturday, a Low pressure moves SSE down the north sea bringing wintry showers, possibly some heavier sleet and snow showers. We will have to watch to see if a warm sector develops within the circulation of the low as this could bring longer outbreaks of rain sleet and snow, with most of the rain on the western flank, and the snow on the eastern flank. Heavy snow showers moving into Northern Scotland behind the snow. So all in all, if the ECM is to be believed over the GFS, a mixed week ahead with wintry showers in some places at times, and even spells of sleet and snow. Plenty of lamp post opportunities later in a weeks time or so.
  8. Will be interesting to hear what Ian F has to say on the GFS / ECM downgrades Maybe this is why the MO outlook has continued to stress great uncertainty in the outlook where any possibility of cooler weather was concerned.
  9. Now this is the best potential for Snow Ive seen all winter.. But as the experts have been say it, disregard it as it cannot be taken seriously. FI Starts at about T216 imo, fairly good agreement up till that point.
  10. To be honest the Met Office own site is saying 8oC on thursday and Friday with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=regionalForecast Its not until Monday onwards that they start mentioning the possibility of frost in places.
  11. That chart wouldnt be particularly cold, mabe around 5oC or so in many places ( shame we dont see charts like that in the summer. :o) ) I suppose to be sure of a cold spell, we need to see charts more akin to this set up to bring promise of a winter wonderland.
  12. I agree ! Problem is there is no cold pool.. which was the problem back in December when we had a negatively tilted low. We had prefrontal snow lasting 20 minutes which turned smartly to rain before sunrise. I can understand all the ramping and expectations rising.. But part of me thinks thats on the back of a thoroughly mild, wet and dull protracted spell, that basically anything looks better than what we have. Again. Its 10oC here this evening !! in early Jan. If anyone is expecting anything remotely snowy and wintry, we need evidence of a pool of deep cold to our East or North East.
  13. Only a fool throws caution to the wind... Thats a deep low feeding in albeit SSE;lys theres nothing that cold on the continent, and behind the front we are in a S or SSW flow. So to sum up to many chickens being counted, without any of the eggs being hatched. More runs needed.. T144 and beyond is probably FI if not earlier.
  14. This is the crux.. When it comes into the reliable, will it effect our neck of the woods. A lot of talk about SSW although it were the holy grail. Northern blocking in the wrong place even slightly the wrong place can also bring copious rainfall and poor weather with the jet being pushed south over the UK. We should be careful what we wish for ;o). Our Summer was ruined in part due to Northern Blocking which kept the Jet too far south. And much of the latter part of November and December Blocking away to our NE caused Atlantic lows to attack from the SSW bringing copious rainfall and become slow moving..
  15. Thanks IF Appreciated. Anyway the HP on the 13th isnt so much a pattern change, as its sunk back over the UK by the following day. And the fleeting 24 hour easterly is a raging S Westerly two days later.. I would class a pattern change something that alters the synoptic set up for at least 5 days or more. The Temps on the chart you posted would be around 5 to 7oC across the south and maybe 2 to 3oC in the North. Not really "Very cold easterly" in the scheme of the things. We really need to see Heights building over Iceland or Scandi with a long fetch out east or North east. Im not sure how cold the continent is any more as the current milder weather has streamed right the way east into Northern Europe. With even Stockholm in the range 0oC to +3oC http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2673730
  16. To be honest I cant see any major changes until at least T240 GEM has us basking in potentially milder weather than we have at present ;- NOGAPS at the end of its run, still generally mild ECMWF has a a mild flow over the UK, with the UK, placed under a 'warm' high pretty much as we have at present And the GFS ensembles show a gentle SW flow over the UK. Even the GFS which goes out further has us in a SW flow... Which leaves us still searching the elusive pattern change. Bearing in mind the above charts take us out to the middle of Jan, it's no surprise that the MO, are reluctant to change their long ranger forecast for now.
  17. Hi NIck, I would suspect the UKMO consider anything beyond T144 to T172 FI. And not to be taken seriously for now. There has been a lot of discussion on here about outcomes way out in FI. This has been shown to be very precarious perviously as we have found at our expense this winter. For now things remain unseasonably mild +13.6oC as I type..The first shoots of our Daffs are poking through the surface of the soil I think the UKMO are keeping their options open by sitting on the fence for the latter part of January for now. What remains to be seen is what will happen to the HP to our South. If that stays nearby, mild will never be far away.
  18. We have't reached the end of December yet. ? I very much doubt the South of England has been anywhere near below average. The wettest ever recorded in England IMO, would seldom coincide with below average temps. In fact the absence of frost for the last ten days or so has been notable. The only snow that has fallen in this neck of the woods was around 6am on 5th December which lasted about 30 minutes. I think sunshine will be at a premium. over the next week / 10 days. The latest ECM output has the high never quite reaching the UK. Next Friday (4th) is the closet it gets to us, nosing into SW England and Wales, By the following Sunday, its pushed away south again by a resurgent PV And by Monday, a deep low over NW Parts sends Fronts across the country, and by Tuesday a developing low just south of Ireland could deepen rapidly and bring some very wet and windy the UK from the SW. More runs needed of course before we can be sure of the extent of the ridging from the Spanish High, however based on the available output, apart from maybe next Friday/Saturday , we will continue to see yet more rain over the UK & Ireland, from time to time for the foreseeable. Lets see what the 12z throws up, it may push the High closer to us, as the current 00z never gets the High over the UK, it keeps it over France or Spain, before it moves away SW at the end of the run.
  19. If you look at the orientation of the high, the ridge does appear to point due east into Bartlett territory - not what we want to see, as you say.
  20. What I dont really understand Nick, is the models out over the next week, are in stark contrast to the longer range winter forecasts in various weather forums and sites. Not only are the LRF's out, but massively out, almost the reverse. In pressure distribution, PV forecasts and below average rainfall forecasts.. I think it is the jet which is to blame here. During our last summer it flattened out almost for 3 months. And it appears to be doing the same thing. This evenings GFS is showing this right out into FI, with nothing modelled to suggest it will suddenly alter. Gaging by the 12 & 18z frost will be a rarity, certainly a hard frost. The ECM ensembles show the PV setting up house over W greenland for the foreseeable. I cant see away out of this locked in situation
  21. Signs out in FI on the on the ECM 12z that the High ridging over southern England is beginning to slowly move off onto the continent. It could be the beginning of a January Bartlett High if it were to establish over the southern low countries. Need more outputs before any certainty can be attached to it.. At least the high should give some respite from this... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-20758780 :o
  22. Agreed, GFS has been the form horse this winter to spot something changing first out in FI. Not sure I would go with any suggestion of a pattern change ? What I find most annoying of all, as we are now in mid winter, we will see later in the runs, High Pressure where we long for it in Summer instead of the Greeny High we have all summer that disappears in mid winter.. Oh well, maybe better luck next year, with some snow before winters' out and something drier in the summer. Will be interesting to see where the Anticyclone progged just to our south at T240 heads in the week beyond. Will it go NE into Scandi, become are bartlett, or drift south back towards Spain..?
  23. Merry Christmas to you all. Lets hope by the end of January, the month will end up, different to how it it starts. A quick look at the latest ECM offering which shows the worst of the rain edging northwards into NW Scotland, as High Pressure from a displaced Iberian High heads closer to the UK, over Biscay. All thing being equal, the worst of the rain should move north into Scotland with a drier respite along the south and SW where it will be needed. Staying mild though, but possibly Foggy at times later in the far south..
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