TheIceman

Thanks John. I feel obliged to add that I am not a meteorologist but a weather enthusiast. But I have tried to understand what governs winter weather in the UK and feel I have made some progress. Hi Matt, None of these ENSO forecasts are saying it is going to be a "strong" El Nino, just that it will strengthen so this isn't a guarantee of mild weather as the PJF normally buckles in eastern North America in a weak to mod El Nino often giving eastern US a cold winter. However, if you get a strong westerly flow across the whole North America in a strong El Nino, I don't see how prolonged cold can develop in Europe as Atlantic warmth will be shunted downstream. And El Nino & negative NAO go together as low heights in the Carribean & further east in the sub-trop Atlantic owing to the strong sub-tropical jet mean higher heights further north in Canada & Greenland. I think all the model-based forecasts may over-react to the strengthening El Nino and this is why they forecast mild winter across Europe.

I have just registered so I can reply to some comments. I am not specifically saying I can see evidence for NAO spells occurring earlier in the winter but that I can see no specific reason why not. I think in the last two winters, the overall pattern was favourable for negative NAO but owing to conditions earlier in the winter being unfavourable, strongly negative NAO only kicked in at ~ 20 Feb. In 2004/2005, the problem was the very zonal pattern to the north of the UK in Dec & the first half of Jan which warmed up Russia big time (this was prob related to very warm SSTs in Greenland/Barents Seas) and last winter, the raging Pacific PJF meant that rising pressures in Greenland in January couldn't happen. So provided some equally unfavourable conditions don't appear this winter, I can see no obstacle to strongly negative NAO spells occurring earlier this winter. And the negative NAo currently and in recent months speaks volumes about the overall pattern favouring negative NAO this winter. Sun spots are very low, and a weak to moderate El Nino also seems to favour negative NAO. So lots of reasons to be optimistic about this winter IMO.