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xerxes

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Everything posted by xerxes

  1. xerxes
    Very good assessment. Developments upstream will be the key to the jet speed and profile. Until we get something to disrupt matters its more of the same for next 10 days. Of course the feeling often is that early winter in El Nino years can be dominated by an active jet and ostensibly mild conditions with the colder weather towards winters end. It will be good to test this theory now that we have this mild start.
  2. xerxes
    Great display again this morning - taking place now
  3. xerxes
    Not sure if this is the place but at 3.30am there was a nice display of Noctilucent Clouds. They were no longer visible by 4am
  4. xerxes
    A decent description from ChrisK regarding the triggerpoints relating to the plume. The warm front due to arrive overnight Friday into Satuday will likely provide some good thundery activity given the instability still around into the early hours, and the high potential across N.France later on Friday. The cold front on Saturday would appear to be when we may expect the most violent storms as the parameters across Eastern England by mid afternoon are excellent.
  5. xerxes
    Indeed - posted that one yesterday - probably should have mentioned it was about Mr Madden's excellent forecasts(LOL)
  6. xerxes
    Well I was appalled by the attack on NW in the past week Anyway, the following is an interesting testimony that is doing the rounds this afternoon Very cleverly constructed and tells us what we as enthusiastic amateurs already know about the site in question;0) http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/winter-forecasting-the-broken-clock-conundrum/
  7. xerxes
    Top post
  8. xerxes
    Largely agree with those comments. I have thought for some time that we will see a predominance of Northern blocking again this summer and a resultant rather poor summer. I really hope I'm wrong but my head says that it will be rather wet and at best average in terms of temps
  9. xerxes
    Been watching an area of intense rain for many hours between initially Chichester and Reigate and now Chichester and Farnham. Chichester must be underwater!
  10. xerxes
    Video taken from the car on my phone as the cloudbase passed
  11. xerxes
    It was hard to get a good shot of the approaching squall(2 miles S of Alton) as there was already rain falling which hindered the clarity of the cloudbase but I was reasonably certain of a funnel on the mid/left of this shot given that it was there for a couple of minutes in an otherwise chaotic cloudscape. Impossible to be sure unfortunately. Once arrived it delivered torrential rain, hail and strong SLW's
  12. xerxes
    Is that a potential bow echo coming up from the Portsmouth area?
  13. xerxes
    Indeed - another dormant cell has just hit Basingstoke with some torrential rain
  14. xerxes
    Away from some intense rain that affected Alton a while back the developments closing in on the IOW need watching. That's a very intense and developing convection line heading NE. Probably responsible for the Bournemouth activity
  15. xerxes
    Perhaps Estofex are away on vacation LOL Some talk of a MCS developing across the south after dark. I would not be surprised as the instability source switches to the English Channel and onshore winds as the trough approaches.
  16. xerxes
    All a bit fractious in here tonight. Reminds me of winter! It's a fair point to mention the AH ridging next week as it's more likely to occur than the stuff even further out into fantasy land. Given the possibility of June's synoptics reoccuring with time, at least it's likely to be a bit warmer as the ambient temperature is usually higher in July.
  17. xerxes
    I issued a summer forecast elsewhere that may already be well off the mark if current thinking verifies. I hoped we may avoid the European Monsoon this year but the increased possibilities of Northern blocking and slack low pressure over continental Europe look like the makings of a lot of precipitation for parts of the UK at various points this June.....and certainly not that warm. My hope is that we follow a 1997 style pattern with a hot August although hot spells in that month are pretty damn rare nowadays
  18. xerxes
    Being a storm fan I agree. Certainly some heavy rain now from the first pulse although developments near Bournemouth now look interesting. Some intense rainfall heading NE
  19. xerxes
    Well on the ground, the initial CF has just gone through Alton with a spell of torrential rain and hail albeit brief. Wind shear of about 60 degrees. 2M temps were 6.3C at the onset and are falling quickly, now 4.6C, that in 10 minutes and still going
  20. xerxes
    Looks like many will at least get some rain out of this system. Seems to be developing nicely as it engages the warmth on its leading edge http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar
  21. xerxes
    Wow indeed. Thats known as explosive development! Either way its very interesting and makes a night shift more bearable!!!
  22. xerxes
    I hope you're right CC. As posted earlier, the ECM run was a big mild outlier in the latter stages. I guess that fact that there is such disagreement is a good thing based on recent winters where we needed straws. The Meto update will make interesting reading again tomorrow!
  23. xerxes
    LOL - Looking into the distant parts of any output is fairly irrelevent at the best of times IMO but currently all we can say is that the trend is cold, if not very cold once the front retreats away to the SE. 2010 looks to have a bitter start to say the least, and with general model agreement
  24. xerxes
    Indeed - makes you wonder where we'll be in the run-up to xmas day. The 0z operational certainly keeps a tantalising threat on our doorstep later on. What a week ahead though
  25. xerxes
    Rather tasty line of cells streaming into Dorset http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=178&y=276
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