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Altohumorous

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    Head in the clouds somewhere near Avondale, West Auckland
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    Storm-force northeasterly(with a high tide!).Blizzards.Sunny summer

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  1. Read this: Typhoon Hagibis: Tokyo braced for battering as ‘worst storm in 60 years’ roars in | World news | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Threat of widespread flooding and landslides compounded by earthquake in nearby Chiba prefecture
  2. Threat of the Cyclone currently in the Pacific Islands near Fiji heading either into Eastern Australia or down to Northern NZ in a few days time. Looking like being a biggie. Hope the islands don't cop it, it's slow-moving.
  3. Incredible drama, tragedy and everything else between with this historical super-storm (and the supporting acts) all week. You really couldn't make it up. To culminate in this slow, terrifying, theatrical turn towards Florida, and still complete uncertainty about what will follow in many ways is just about as astonishing as it gets. This storm is truly like some other worldly thing at this stage. If it proceeds to roll up along the Florida west coast I think we will have witnessed something that will go down as the most fantastical storm of all recorded time. In my humble opinion it looks like it's going to go at least a bit more west in the next 12 hours. After that, if it stays at this utterly suspenseful pace, it's anybody's guess as other factors likely to come more into play. It is only short of having a giant orchestra play the apocalypse movie climax score at this stage.
  4. Heard it mentioned (sans detail) on the radio last night that there was/were a record temperature(s) recorded yesterday, anybody know where and what exactly it was? I've searched the Met website & RTE news etc to no avail. I wonder was it an Irish monthly record (seems very unlikely) or for a day, and/or a place
  5. Those fairly FI charts showing northerlies etc appear to show the NAO too far west, we'd quite likely end up on the milder side of the troughing, at least some or most of the time, should that type of scenario come to pass. Certainly the signs of pattern change from 2/3 days ago are looking to be consistent so far, coming more into the reliable frame. I've had a strong belief for mid-december change since about 2 weeks ago. Some serious rain-producing weather patterns being modelled consistently for this weekend into early next week. Places looking most at risk are west and south Wales, SW and central England (central southern later), much of Ireland especially the south. Western coastal areas also under threat due to persistent high winds.
  6. Typical November fare, some hopeful signs of a cold snap or two in the offing. I feel we are in a seasonal transition period that has disrupted the pattern that held for several months but I don't think it's a radical change of pattern. I think we could see a return to northern blocking within 3 weeks. On the other hand the November pattern bore some similarities to last year but locally and certainly hemispherically I think there are enough differences to be hopeful of a different winter at least, and if you want cold the overall signs are good in my view. Last year never convinced me for cold patterns to emerge, regardless of the drivers and downstream indicators, the mid-lat blocking pattern was consistent and consistent patterns usually don't change quick. The current and recent patterns have not been there long enough and have looked transitional. The cold lobe that shifted en-masse out of Greenland this week reminded me of episodes at the start of very mild winters in the late 80s. But those episodes ended up with very cold anticyclones drifting from these parts into central and south Europe and setting up intense blocking
  7. Thanks BFTV. Like the film, it's complicated! Any evidence to show that sea-ice alters in line with those shorter periods of warming and cooling?
  8. Great discussion folks, I've been following it for maybe 10 years now (has it been going that long??). Thanks to all for the information and explanations, some amount of research and thought gone into it. I have a quick question, it is widely agreed (isn't it?) that the northern hemisphere goes through cycles of warmer and colder climate of about 30 years because of (most likely?) activity on the sun. My main question is, given that as far as I've heard and observed, we currently are in a colder period, does that mean the small increase in minimum sea-ice extent since 2007 is most likely to be down to that? Or at least, that is the main reason?
  9. LIght southeast wind Rochey, that will bring the temperature up here, anything at all off the sea is coitans for snow here
  10. Well yet another tease that had even more of us getting hopes up. It's certainly a pattern, that we read too much into too little evidence. It's also a pattern, since November, that is in fact predictable if you look over what has been the outcome of the forecasts since early november (and otherwise I would assume). The outcomes have shown us consistency in enough of the forecasts. We need to follow those. There will always be big surprises now and then in the weather, but overall, not.
  11. Well it looks like finally the (very, very) gradual shift in pattern over the last three months from mid-lat blocking over these islands and Europe to more cyclonic-influenced, and from split jet with dominant arm to the north to split jet with more emphasis south, is finally leading to more significant cold-potential. Perhaps it can be summed up more crudely as a very slow shunt in the overall pattern of systems to a position where they result in the cold that was going sometimes to East Europe and to NE of the American Continent being able to come over here, to some extent. Another possibly even more crude summary I would make is that if one was to gather up the patterns of weather systems since the start of November, there has been very much a repetition in the northern hemisphere, the only major change during that period being the stronger phases of jet activity. In the past I have formed the impression that any sort of shift in patterns to bring much colder solutions here tend to take about 2-3 months. How often have we seen mostly mild Decembers and Januaries give way to colder februaries? Mild winters give way to cold springs? And visa versa. The predicted trough disruption over the coming days repeats that which happened at various times over the last few weeks. This time it seems like it will allow in more entrenched/persistant cold. It's almost as if the first colder PM spells in November (after the record-breaking warmth of October, especially Halloween) progressed to the cold snap just after Christmas and have now progressed further to now. Each period seems to have represented a 'phase'. If anyone could bottle this sort of thing and predict it with confidence/accuracy, there would be little to bother tuning in here for! Except of course to study the details. And as WIB said above, rare (these days, the past 25 years) events like freezing westerlies are something to savour anyway, regardless of how it pans out in the next week. Many people have been taking about "the best chance for significant snow in two years". Well IMBG it has been four years, hards to believe. And considering the winters of 09-11 provoked predictions of a period of apocalyptic winters for years to come (which I never believed would translate to reality) it seems like forever. So here's hoping this will be a 'proper' cold spell with snow lying for many, that is, lasting at least a week, preferably ten days, if that's not too greedy. Meanwhile this storm is going to pound the west and north of Ireland and parts of Scotland and North England. Hope everyone stays safe. Serious storm followed by possibly serious cold, as Al Pacino said in Carlito's way, "Here come the PAIN!!" Of course, for those who saw it, Al had no pain to give, as his gun was out of bullets. Lets hope the cold stays loaded! My view of the models predictions currently - alot of stuff not at all nailed on yet, the sort of combination of things needing to happen that could change radically as small shifts occur. The progress from the storm to this weekend alone is fraught with unlikelihood. The odds of it ending up with anticyclonic influence forcing any cold too far northeast to influence much of these islands are strong IMO. A much more likely outcome that what the models are showing, for lets be honest, only a day or two consistently, and even then only some models. If the anticyclone pushes further east earlier at the end of this week and cuts off the Arctic air before it hits us then the chances of the following predicted trough disruption next week being too far east for many of us are very strong.
  12. At the risk of being crude, uneducated, and generally out of my depth with the science, my broad impression of things from closely following the model outputs since the start of november, and leaving aside for the moment the (hugely insightful and educated) contributions and discussions, is that the consistent pattern has been resulting in a majority outcome of mid-lat anticyclonic blocking. This 'middle-ground' outcome seems clear, in that no dominant pattern of more extremely defined synoptics has emerged, during this long period. There has been a very gradual period of overall cooling in this region, almost simply an expression of 'normal' seasonal shift. This cooling seems for the moment to have ceased, perhaps (no doubt naively!) in response to the fact that we are at the solar minimum. This sounds like stating the obvious but I state it (having rarely posted) for the reason that it's often frsutrating and baffling to read some or many of the forecasts interpreting much more 'polarised' (pun intended) patterns of weather from what seems like a trend that is consistently 'middle of the road'. There has not been enough evidence from all of the outputs that I have seen to suggest any further move towards anything much different. Perhaps the gradual shifting of things on the more global/hemispheric scale will continue to produce gradual shifts in our synoptics in this region but whether it will produce any appreciable shift in our weather overall seems on the evidence of the past few weeks unlikely. Again to take the crude view, in an effort to escape the mire of multiple information and in-depth interpretation, the hemisphere has not generally looked especially 'cold' for the past month. Admittedly November brought a severe lobe of cold to NA, and the potential for that to happen again, and to shift eastwards, appears decent enough. But there remains alot of 'mild air' over our hemisphere as far as I can see, and alot of persistant lower to mid-lat heights, and the thing I'd love to know is how this might shift away? There has been no pattern to penetrate very cold Arctic air far enough south. Or to move the mild anticyclonic bands away, except temporarily. This kind of pattern in my memory tends to last up to 3 months at times in winter. That crude and narrow impression leads me to believe it's not going to shift much in the next 2 weeks. Everything I have seen over the past week from the forecasts has indicated to me that mostly quiet weather will be the majority, with mostly average temperatures, and occasionally more unsettled spells.
  13. I've been looking at a pattern in the model forecasts that to me has existed through the autumn but of more relevance since the onset of the darkest months. to me this pattern has been consistent and the models have been overall correct - we remain, as we have done since early November, in a very very gradually cooling scenario. And the patterns predicted for the rest of the year continue overall that gradual, very gradual, cooling trend. The weather not surprisingly overall is very undramatic. This reflects the majority model output. We appear to be in a continuing trend of very gradual cooling overall. It's like Sisyphus and his rock and the hill. I think we get a little closer each time, though she knows the outcome is impossible.
  14. You would be right about 'certain types' of NE European anticyclonic set-ups. But those tend to be aligned and trending differently, and also to have very cold air entrenched. The current and projected situation shows alignment and trending that don't support a very cold and entrenched cold block of the type you suggest. There is a gradual build-up of something fairly cold but the trends otherwise tend to either not allow much if any cold to advect west or for the cold to pull away as milder air pushes in from the south and west. If the current GFS P were to come off, it does at least bring a very cold pool of air into east Europe, but the alignment and trending are still not supporting it to advect or even to hold for very long. The overall alignment still needs to change. I think it's very gradually changing. Another 2 weeks at least before it might have changed enough to start trending cold our way, or setting up a block to our east/NE that could bring cold towards us/hold any real cold over us. IF it does at all. My own feeling is that what will continue to happen is what the models overall are showing, that we are in the middle between the major players, and the result of these players is average (though very gradually cooling) temperatures, and overall relatively settled weather (average again I suppose! Slightly more settled than unsettled overall?). The models overall were correct about this over the last 3 weeks. There is a very gradual shift in hemispheric patterns, perhaps. Is it going to continue or reverse or stay more or less as it is? Mid-lat blocking still looks the most likely overall outcome, if to say such a thing is relevant. The blocking may become more centred around these islands and west Europe, for a while. That in turn may gradually result in further change. Or the mid-Euro ridge may hold or rebuild. Nothing consistent suggests anything other than these type of outcomes in the next 2 weeks, to me.
  15. It's hard to credit that a region as small as the UK and Ireland could have such a diversity of temperature anomaly given as an average over 3 months. Looking also at France (cold east, milder west) and Spain, I wonder does it indicate a complex situation with HP often near the NW of these islands, low pressure over Spain and France, with bursts of east winds bringing cold across England. But not sustained or widespread? Or a settled scenario with alot of blocking close or over these islands and the east of England getting any colder air much more often than other areas. It certainly doesn't indicate much in the way of any cold northerlies. Maybe it also indicates HP over north and east Europe, but not Greenland, jet going around the high, coldest air in these islands in England from east winds making it that far west sometimes. Western, and northern areas not getting the cold penetrating
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