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Threat of the Cyclone currently in the Pacific Islands near Fiji heading either into Eastern Australia or down to Northern NZ in a few days time. Looking like being a biggie. Hope the islands don't cop it, it's slow-moving.

Incredible drama, tragedy and everything else between with this historical super-storm (and the supporting acts) all week. You really couldn't make it up. To culminate in this slow, terrifying, theatrical turn towards Florida, and still complete uncertainty about what will follow in many ways is just about as astonishing as it gets. This storm is truly like some other worldly thing at this stage. If it proceeds to roll up along the Florida west coast I think we will have witnessed something that will go down as the most fantastical storm of all recorded time. In my humble opinion it looks like it's going to go at least a bit more west in the next 12 hours. After that, if it stays at this utterly suspenseful pace, it's anybody's guess as other factors likely to come more into play. It is only short of having a giant orchestra play the apocalypse movie climax score at this stage.

Heard it mentioned (sans detail) on the radio last night that there was/were a record temperature(s) recorded yesterday, anybody know where and what exactly it was? I've searched the Met website & RTE news etc to no avail. I wonder was it an Irish monthly record (seems very unlikely) or for a day, and/or a place

Those fairly FI charts showing northerlies etc appear to show the NAO too far west, we'd quite likely end up on the milder side of the troughing, at least some or most of the time, should that type of scenario come to pass. Certainly the signs of pattern change from 2/3 days ago are looking to be consistent so far, coming more into the reliable frame. I've had a strong belief for mid-december change since about 2 weeks ago. Some serious rain-producing weather patterns being modelled consistently for this weekend into early next week. Places looking most at risk are west and south Wales, SW and central England (central southern later), much of Ireland especially the south. Western coastal areas also under threat due to persistent high winds.

Typical November fare, some hopeful signs of a cold snap or two in the offing. I feel we are in a seasonal transition period that has disrupted the pattern that held for several months but I don't think it's a radical change of pattern. I think we could see a return to northern blocking within 3 weeks. On the other hand the November pattern bore some similarities to last year but locally and certainly hemispherically I think there are enough differences to be hopeful of a different winter at least, and if you want cold the overall signs are good in my view. Last year never convinced me for cold patterns to emerge, regardless of the drivers and downstream indicators, the mid-lat blocking pattern was consistent and consistent patterns usually don't change quick. The current and recent patterns have not been there long enough and have looked transitional. The cold lobe that shifted en-masse out of Greenland this week reminded me of episodes at the start of very mild winters in the late 80s. But those episodes ended up with very cold anticyclones drifting from these parts into central and south Europe and setting up intense blocking

Thanks BFTV. Like the film, it's complicated! Any evidence to show that sea-ice alters in line with those shorter periods of warming and cooling?

Great discussion folks, I've been following it for maybe 10 years now (has it been going that long??). Thanks to all for the information and explanations, some amount of research and thought gone into it. I have a quick question, it is widely agreed (isn't it?) that the northern hemisphere goes through cycles of warmer and colder climate of about 30 years because of (most likely?) activity on the sun. My main question is, given that as far as I've heard and observed, we currently are in a colder period, does that mean the small increase in minimum sea-ice extent since 2007 is most likely to be down to that? Or at least, that is the main reason?

LIght southeast wind Rochey, that will bring the temperature up here, anything at all off the sea is coitans for snow here

Well yet another tease that had even more of us getting hopes up. It's certainly a pattern, that we read too much into too little evidence. It's also a pattern, since November, that is in fact predictable if you look over what has been the outcome of the forecasts since early november (and otherwise I would assume). The outcomes have shown us consistency in enough of the forecasts. We need to follow those. There will always be big surprises now and then in the weather, but overall, not.

Well it looks like finally the (very, very) gradual shift in pattern over the last three months from mid-lat blocking over these islands and Europe to more cyclonic-influenced, and from split jet with dominant arm to the north to split jet with more emphasis south, is finally leading to more significant cold-potential. Perhaps it can be summed up more crudely as a very slow shunt in the overall pattern of systems to a position where they result in the cold that was going sometimes to East Europe and to NE of the American Continent being able to come over here, to some extent. Another possibly even more crude summary I would make is that if one was to gather up the patterns of weather systems since the start of November, there has been very much a repetition in the northern hemisphere, the only major change during that period being the stronger phases of jet activity. In the past I have formed the impression that any sort of shift in patterns to bring much colder solutions here tend to take about 2-3 months. How often have we seen mostly mild Decembers and Januaries give way to colder februaries? Mild winters give way to cold springs? And visa versa. The predicted trough disruption over the coming days repeats that which happened at various times over the last few weeks. This time it seems like it will allow in more entrenched/persistant cold. It's almost as if the first colder PM spells in November (after the record-breaking warmth of October, especially Halloween) progressed to the cold snap just after Christmas and have now progressed further to now. Each period seems to have represented a 'phase'. If anyone could bottle this sort of thing and predict it with confidence/accuracy, there would be little to bother tuning in here for! Except of course to study the details. And as WIB said above, rare (these days, the past 25 years) events like freezing westerlies are something to savour anyway, regardless of how it pans out in the next week. Many people have been taking about "the best chance for significant snow in two years". Well IMBG it has been four years, hards to believe. And considering the winters of 09-11 provoked predictions of a period of apocalyptic winters for years to come (which I never believed would translate to reality) it seems like forever. So here's hoping this will be a 'proper' cold spell with snow lying for many, that is, lasting at least a week, preferably ten days, if that's not too greedy. Meanwhile this storm is going to pound the west and north of Ireland and parts of Scotland and North England. Hope everyone stays safe. Serious storm followed by possibly serious cold, as Al Pacino said in Carlito's way, "Here come the PAIN!!" Of course, for those who saw it, Al had no pain to give, as his gun was out of bullets. Lets hope the cold stays loaded! My view of the models predictions currently - alot of stuff not at all nailed on yet, the sort of combination of things needing to happen that could change radically as small shifts occur. The progress from the storm to this weekend alone is fraught with unlikelihood. The odds of it ending up with anticyclonic influence forcing any cold too far northeast to influence much of these islands are strong IMO. A much more likely outcome that what the models are showing, for lets be honest, only a day or two consistently, and even then only some models. If the anticyclone pushes further east earlier at the end of this week and cuts off the Arctic air before it hits us then the chances of the following predicted trough disruption next week being too far east for many of us are very strong.

At the risk of being crude, uneducated, and generally out of my depth with the science, my broad impression of things from closely following the model outputs since the start of november, and leaving aside for the moment the (hugely insightful and educated) contributions and discussions, is that the consistent pattern has been resulting in a majority outcome of mid-lat anticyclonic blocking. This 'middle-ground' outcome seems clear, in that no dominant pattern of more extremely defined synoptics has emerged, during this long period. There has been a very gradual period of overall cooling in this region, almost simply an expression of 'normal' seasonal shift. This cooling seems for the moment to have ceased, perhaps (no doubt naively!) in response to the fact that we are at the solar minimum. This sounds like stating the obvious but I state it (having rarely posted) for the reason that it's often frsutrating and baffling to read some or many of the forecasts interpreting much more 'polarised' (pun intended) patterns of weather from what seems like a trend that is consistently 'middle of the road'. There has not been enough evidence from all of the outputs that I have seen to suggest any further move towards anything much different. Perhaps the gradual shifting of things on the more global/hemispheric scale will continue to produce gradual shifts in our synoptics in this region but whether it will produce any appreciable shift in our weather overall seems on the evidence of the past few weeks unlikely. Again to take the crude view, in an effort to escape the mire of multiple information and in-depth interpretation, the hemisphere has not generally looked especially 'cold' for the past month. Admittedly November brought a severe lobe of cold to NA, and the potential for that to happen again, and to shift eastwards, appears decent enough. But there remains alot of 'mild air' over our hemisphere as far as I can see, and alot of persistant lower to mid-lat heights, and the thing I'd love to know is how this might shift away? There has been no pattern to penetrate very cold Arctic air far enough south. Or to move the mild anticyclonic bands away, except temporarily. This kind of pattern in my memory tends to last up to 3 months at times in winter. That crude and narrow impression leads me to believe it's not going to shift much in the next 2 weeks. Everything I have seen over the past week from the forecasts has indicated to me that mostly quiet weather will be the majority, with mostly average temperatures, and occasionally more unsettled spells.

I've been looking at a pattern in the model forecasts that to me has existed through the autumn but of more relevance since the onset of the darkest months. to me this pattern has been consistent and the models have been overall correct - we remain, as we have done since early November, in a very very gradually cooling scenario. And the patterns predicted for the rest of the year continue overall that gradual, very gradual, cooling trend. The weather not surprisingly overall is very undramatic. This reflects the majority model output. We appear to be in a continuing trend of very gradual cooling overall. It's like Sisyphus and his rock and the hill. I think we get a little closer each time, though she knows the outcome is impossible.

You would be right about 'certain types' of NE European anticyclonic set-ups. But those tend to be aligned and trending differently, and also to have very cold air entrenched. The current and projected situation shows alignment and trending that don't support a very cold and entrenched cold block of the type you suggest. There is a gradual build-up of something fairly cold but the trends otherwise tend to either not allow much if any cold to advect west or for the cold to pull away as milder air pushes in from the south and west. If the current GFS P were to come off, it does at least bring a very cold pool of air into east Europe, but the alignment and trending are still not supporting it to advect or even to hold for very long. The overall alignment still needs to change. I think it's very gradually changing. Another 2 weeks at least before it might have changed enough to start trending cold our way, or setting up a block to our east/NE that could bring cold towards us/hold any real cold over us. IF it does at all. My own feeling is that what will continue to happen is what the models overall are showing, that we are in the middle between the major players, and the result of these players is average (though very gradually cooling) temperatures, and overall relatively settled weather (average again I suppose! Slightly more settled than unsettled overall?). The models overall were correct about this over the last 3 weeks. There is a very gradual shift in hemispheric patterns, perhaps. Is it going to continue or reverse or stay more or less as it is? Mid-lat blocking still looks the most likely overall outcome, if to say such a thing is relevant. The blocking may become more centred around these islands and west Europe, for a while. That in turn may gradually result in further change. Or the mid-Euro ridge may hold or rebuild. Nothing consistent suggests anything other than these type of outcomes in the next 2 weeks, to me.

It's hard to credit that a region as small as the UK and Ireland could have such a diversity of temperature anomaly given as an average over 3 months. Looking also at France (cold east, milder west) and Spain, I wonder does it indicate a complex situation with HP often near the NW of these islands, low pressure over Spain and France, with bursts of east winds bringing cold across England. But not sustained or widespread? Or a settled scenario with alot of blocking close or over these islands and the east of England getting any colder air much more often than other areas. It certainly doesn't indicate much in the way of any cold northerlies. Maybe it also indicates HP over north and east Europe, but not Greenland, jet going around the high, coldest air in these islands in England from east winds making it that far west sometimes. Western, and northern areas not getting the cold penetrating

Isn't that just a surface high over Greenland in the GFS option? So that even if the other factors there all came off, there wouldn't be the ridging to Greenland from North Europe? ECM option more in line with the recent and current pattern, and neither options showing heights building towards Greenland. I think those show what some ECM output has been showing for the last 2 weeks and would indicate consistency in maintaining what resulted. In fact some of the ECM output a week or more ago showed ridging to Greenland. So currently no signal for that? The GFS has come a long way though from 2 weeks ago and less. Does that mean the GFS has adjusted (can the models adjust like that?) or is it just as likely it could turn out be very wrong again? Perhaps it shows that once the unexpected (for GFS) outcomes are processed, it then models based on the new info. Overall ECM looks to be quite consistent. Overall I think it's possible we have a slow trend to possible 'cold unsettled'. Certainly not as cold as 3 and 4 years ago (in December at any rate), and that's what the long-range indicated. Need the models to start showing either retrogression of very strong north/east Europe high or heights build to Greenland. I think the former is looking a little more possible of the two.

Yes agreed, in terms of the 'weather on the ground' I'd be happy to see the Azores ridge give us a bit of inversion in fresh Atlantic PM air. I also think that ridge, if it becomes established for two or three days, intensifying, might nudge the current stalemate on a bit. I don't know how, only because it would be something different to what we've had for a while. I could enjoy a more PM unsettled option at this stage, regardless of what it might mean in terms of progression further on. The long-range forecast from the British Met indicated a likelihood of 'cold very unsettled' and perhaps the models are starting to show the first signs of that. The models consensus looks like a return to exactly what we had last week, to me. If that happens, at least the current drier spell and a possible couple of days or more from that Azores ridge means we couldn't say it's too much dreary or too much rain. And it still doesn't look like any real 'mild dross' being modelled. If the weekend turns out to be pleasant southerlies then I won't be complaining. Albeit I'll have to visit another thread to talk about a general trend to warmer climate................ But as others have said I don't see it turning out all that mild, nearer to average looks likely. The overall Euro/North Africa set-up doesn't look right for a strong plume, not enough energy in the flow. Though it's not long since such plumes were affecting us strongly - the end of October. Things have shifted a little since then though. Still some unusual synoptics in the output overall, and I think contrary to what some are saying I think there is quite a deal of consistency there, other than in more micro detail.

There has never been any consistent modelling for real cold at all. Most output has pointed to exactly what we have, stalemate and continuing average weather overall. So the models have not been, nor are confused, nor have slumped or anything like that. Far too much emphasis on the inevitable few outputs that have shown potential cold synoptics developing. There is no real sign of change so that is what the output mostly is and that is the most likely outcome.

The strat warming might help change things with the mid-lat block?

No change really. Very gradual cool-down over north and central and east Europe. Is the stasis as it stands just indicative of the more positive AO? Will the ongoing block/stalemate and gradual cooling lead to some sort of change of orientation of the meridional set-up that is keeping us in this very average weather? Over European Continent even? Can't see it unless the mid-lat block also goes, which would surely mean the Atlantic comes further east. And I can't see the block really going for a while, or changing. At times it looks like going a bit more north, at times more south, it certainly doesn't look like it will go northwest, where we need it for any real cold here. Will the orientation of the meridional set-up just continue? In which case regardless of increased northern block potential the major features are not going to align any differently. The only real hope of change is to move everything east but I don't know even if that happens will the pattern remain the same, in order to bring us northerlies?

If the outcome of this week is HP building over and very close to these islands, I really hope we aren't headed for one of those '70's'-type winters where mid-lat blocking dominates for weeks on end. There have been winters where virtually nothing of interest happened, and last winter would look like a very exciting one in comparison to an average temp mid-lat HP-dominated one. Certainly the current forecasts and even the past 2-3 weeks have the look of a pattern that will stay, well, not very interesting weather-wise. Very middle-ground sort of stuff, unless as some are saying the changes to our west produce some major change for us. Or are they just serving to help build/maintain a mid-lat block scenario? In my experience these kinds of blocks do not lead to major cold and they don't change quick. I think winter 2007/8 was an example, though that was more interesting and a bit colder than the 70s ones that I recall

The process that led up to 144 is far from "Atlantic moving in" in the sense that you intimate. Anything beyond that is too far to call, especially as far as day 10, as we've seen over the past few weeks and otherwise. That trough at 144 has wandered around for 2 days already, even gone a bit west from where it is at 96 and 120, according to the output.

From 144 to 192 on some of the output today just doesn't look right. Too much Atlantic progression, the shape and angles don't support that, neither does all the variability and uncertainty. I can see the trough stalling in the Atlantic more, as it has done more and more the last week or so. We will end up with a 'battle-ground', that will bring us quite chilly, mixed, not too dramatic weather. 'Typical' for the time of year. We might actually get a proper frost or two. Can't see that meridional flow just disappear so quickly. Then again, these are modern times, so who knows?

Continues to be a very interesting variety of output with many possibilities and of course variables. As somebody else put it, "something for everyone" sums it up well as regards what may happen in the short to medium term. As for the main character in the drama itself, the weather, it's already been more interesting than it had been forecast a week or so ago, with some really heavy rain in parts, along with squally winds. (Some great sky-scapes too I might add, rarely typical dreary November). There's a gradual cooling trend and from the output in general I can see further cooling likely overall, with potential for some winteryness either through PM air wrapped up in one or two of the troughs coming very close to these shores, and/or through a cooler anticyclone that may develop or extend over us. Both of these scenarios at this stage of autumn would be very welcome to many I'm sure, representing something that we traditionally call 'seasonal' (has to be taken in the context of changing climate!) and possibly also a drying out opportunity for areas affected by/at risk from serious flooding. Finally there is also the potential, narrowly missed so far this autumn, of some major stormyness to occur over these islands in the near future. November has been a month where in the past some of the most significant storms have occurred but if my memory doesn't desert me I can't recall many such events in the last 20-30 years or more. Alot of rain, alot of anticyclonic periods but not that many major storms. Startling contrast between GFS & ECM outputs this morning too, one very disturbed even in the shorter term, the other very settled overall.

I would say that comparisons are as odious as statistics but............................Last year I was speculating about whether the current 'cold' period in the cycle of sun activity would follow any sort of similar trend in terms of how the winters pan out during the 'period' in comparison to previous 'cold periods'. So I looked at alot of charts and stats for how the weather and synoptics were for winters in the late 70s & early 80s, and also in the late 50s and early 60s. If I thought I noticed anything at all interms of pattern, I speculated as to whether the last two winters, following on the 'cold' winters (in this region of the world) prior to it, had any echoes in the past, and felt that it was just possible that the late 70s & early 80s might contain something. Hence the winters of 2009-2013/14 were not entirely dissimilar to those of about 1977/78-1981/2 or maybe 83. Furthermore I can see similarities between the past two winters and the current synoptics and the winters of the mid-1960s (post 63). Perhaps all it shows is that northern blocking/PV disruption, and also Jet emigration, occur much more during these periods. Big swing you may say and rightly so. But it's interesting nonetheless to speculate about. There were winters in the mid 1960s that had fantastic 'potential' (for cold-weather set-up & unusual synoptic lovers) but which didn't lead to anything more than a few cold snaps (significant though some of those were) in these islands. And of course it goes without saying that the complexities & infinite possibilities overall of the atmosphere preclude anything in any great detail in terms of predictable larger patterns. But I'll still say that the current model output does remind me very much of winter charts I looked at for the mid-1960s. And given that we have passed by the 'peak' of the 'cold cycle' of atmospheric patterns for this round, I think it's unlikely we will see any prolonged cold in winter in the next couple of years. Perhaps overall a sign of the changing climate, given that the two very cold spells that did occur in this cycle did not persist as long as the coldest winters of the previous cycles. But the beauty of it all is, nobody knows and these current outputs certainly raise great interest and speculation even in the short term. Looking forward very much to see how the next 4 weeks at least pan out. I think if we get even what is indicated in the next 10 days by the models it will have been quite unusual