surrey slush

Think it's got more to do with the penalty system, if they announce a reduced schedule because of the weather, they don't lose as much, as if they try to run a full service and fail.

Indeed it's not, two independent measures, but consistency taken with the verification results, do give some credence to the ECM Atm, Whereas GFS flapping + the lower verification tends to undermine it. I think we can relegate Timmy's ramblings to the 'noise' pile, along with seagulls and grannie's joints.

Is this storm possible, it doesn't seem to be showing up on UKM, and no warnings from them either... Is this another MFish storm, or is it just the GFS playing with it's spirograph?

How likely is that beast to verify I wonder, should I be oiling the chainsaws?

I'm going to be driving in it, happy happy joy joy.

I suspect, that it's a little more prosaic than that; Summer - greater Solar input> more energy > more entropy> less reliable modeling.

Steve, it's not your location, it's you, you have a personal snow dome... North surrey is a ****hole don't come here.

Slowing down now in Chertsey, but I think that lump over Eastbourne has got my name on it (after plastering where I work in Horsham) ... And out of f..ing marginal air amazing.

Heh heh indeed, but I'll think you'll find a puzzle with 501 pieces out of 500 ..... will produce a markedly different image from the one on the front of the box

Ok, I simply don't have enough information to make a call on what the weather will do 28th+. But what should we be looking for in the models in the next few days to help us pick a horse? To my mind I'm not even looking for a GH @ 200hrs+, what I'm looking for first is ens support for whatever the OP run of the day is showing to break down, as seen prior to the the current event. It is painfully clear the the current models really can't deal with SSW downwellings. I'm not too disheartened by zonal models off into lalaland, but the good inter and intra model agreement is a bit worrying. The coldie in me is saying, even the comedy models can model a breakdown, and things like 920mb lows say things are afoot that just haven't been anticipated by the models, which by their very nature will always tend to the mean. What auguries do more seasoned members think we should be looking for in the steaming guts of the models?

Started snizzling again here in Chertsey in the far nw, a band formed on the radar right overhead, and has now joined with the London mass?? Been an odd day, been right on the margin, but it just hasn't stopped.

I'm up the hill, in Lyne, it's amazing how much more we get up here compared to you swampies down there in thorpe. Heading down to the Grove for a pint in a min if I can get the car down the lane.

I quite like tungent, but if you're going to be picky the orange light is low pressure sodium, and the whiter streetlights are generally high pressure sodium, although some newer ones are fluor types. =)

You could even look @ the radar on NW... but TBH, i think the NAE slagging off was because everyone thought it was pulling the 'friday' event into today weakening it and stalling it, whereas it was picking up a signal for what we now see. Well that and IF posted that the 'chief' at the MetO had binned/modified it.

Yes, should be OK, by then, leave early though, getting there could be worse than the flight.