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bluearmy last won the day on February 9

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  1. feb1991blizzard 00z eps at day 15 Split with Asian master (just) pretty impressive to have a split showing at that range across 50 members
  2. feb1991blizzard the 00z generally follows suit. The gefs do not. The strat modelling suddenly looks questionable after my post yesterday saying how the continuity on this looked solid! Time to take a step back
  3. The early March reversal is consistently modelled as a strong reversal. this is where it differs from the last two. Infact the last one and one just finished verified as very brief tech reversals and only really picked up about a week to 10 days ahead in the ens. The early March has been signalled across the eps and gefs at two weeks out (more by the 46). The difference also showing on this next one is that there looks to be no appetite for any recovery back to positive (which previous two forecast reversals showed). The time of year obvs relevant here. finally, the gfs ops (which is all we see at this range ref downwelling ) are keen to bring this reversal right down into the lowest levels of the strat and towards our latitude. That should mean the trop feels some effects fairly quickly. the ext ens look like they want to really build that scrussian ridge - becoming sceuro. In tandem with some high anoms west Atlantic and a ‘trough’ wnw of Iberia this is how a neg NAO could manifest for march.
  4. 06z gfs op fi…….. Checks watch ….… waits for someone to mention Iberian ridge ……. (don’t fall into the trap !)
  5. pdiddy doesn’t always correlate to the lowest temps high up. Infact the 06z op has lower strat temps in the next few days than when it drifts the 10hpa spv across us
  6. Icon finds a mid Atlantic high as opposed to a mid Atlantic ridge
  7. Rain All Night unlikely lower down is centred further northeast
  8. Update on the early March reversal shows less appetite for a split and most runs show a v marked displacement - the 06z manages to displace the spv at 10 hpa across the U.K.!
  9. Rain All Night it was limited to elevation as I recall. Eg - Cricket called off in Buxton those were the days winter was winter and summer was summer …..
  10. Mike Poole forgot about the 20 days Mike Seems almost certain that it won’t make 20 days so the early March reversal (if it occurs) will register along with the current brief dip as tech ssw no 2 of this winter
  11. feb1991blizzarddoesnt look to be on the agenda feb too early for analysis although the 00z run was very much an upper strat led split so should be more predictable if it becomes the way forward
  12. Looks like the early March ssw is gaining momentum Unknown at this stage if it would be an early ‘final warming’ waiting to see continuity from gfs which has indicated three displacements and one split in its last four runs. The 00z gfs looked notable in that it downwelled the reverse flow into the lower strat (even towards 60N). But that was the split run.
  13. Blessed Weather you’re not being pedantic BW I just followed what had been posted earlier without counting !
  14. feb1991blizzard first week march is v early for a final warming so could be 4 tech reversals !
  15. Just noticed that some of the AI models now go to day 15 be interesting to see how their verification stats check out
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