damianslaw

We are eating deep into what is typically the Lake District 'drier season', its going to need a 2018 to redeem itself, but no signal for any substantive dry spell, though we are seeing much drier synoptics, heights look set to position themselves too far to the west, and we remain at the mercy of the euro trough. Whilst not unprecedented, it would be extremely exceptional to see the wet theme hold through to June. We shall see. 1998 is a good comparison year, we did manage a long dry warm spell in May at least, the less said about the summer the better though.

It depends on what is classed as disappointing.. and excellent.. I'm summising by disappointing you mean, wetter, duller and cooler than average, and by excellent you mean sunnier, warmer and drier than average. Also timelines important, over the 3 months as a whole, rather than parts of the seasons being either, or , or. By such definitions I think of many years that align well, probably 1983, spring was consistently wet, cool and dull, summer brought a very warm dry July, I think August was similiar, not sure about June. 2018 falls foul given the spring fell into both camps. 1995 brought a mixed Spring, sometimes wet, cool and dry, sometimes warm, dry and sunny, overall it was a very dry spring. so it can't be included. 1996 brought a fairly dry but cool dull spring, and a fairly average summer, mmm doesn't fit the bill. 2013 possibly closest contender since 1983, a wet cold dull spring, and a dry sunny warm summer, the hot July cancelled out the cool June, average - warm August. 1983, 2013 fit the definition in this context.

Certainly the outlook is very different fayre to what we've experienced for quite some time. Can't recall the last time we had a cold euro trough and strong heights to our NW linking into the pole. We've seen alot of troughing over and to the SW of UK but not to our east and south east. If any time of year is most likely to produce such synoptics its now, complete opposite to the south west airstream, instead we have a NE flow. Short term, a pleasant spell for far west parts, with dry sunny conditions and respectable temps, further east, cool cloudy with showery dank weather. Next week could well turn quite unsettled for many as lower heights push east , cloud, rain and supressed temps, not what many I expect are wanting.

A dismal day in the end, the rain was moderate to heavy for a number of hours. Cleared now, but we have low cloud cover and its quite gloomy. Shap has had its wettest April on record so far, and we have only another 12 days to go. April 24 will be remembered unfondly despite the warmth up until Sunday all its done is added fuel to any precipitation, we are now in a much cooler and settled spell, but any lengthy dry period looks on thin ice.

Shap went down to -4.3 degrees in the early hours. A cold overcast morning has given way to light patchy rain. Current temp a chilly 8.4 degrees.

An odd month, akin to the extreme opposites 2011 and 2012, 2011 very warm and dry and sunny, 2012 very wet dull and cold. Instead of the very wet and dull it was unusually cold and dry, whereas 2020 was sunny dry and very mild. Interesting to note how we sometimes have back to back opposite months in a calandar year. May 20 and 21 same. March 12 and 13 another contrast. July 22 and 23.. Feb 18 and 19 in terms of extreme cold and heat.

In an average year we usually have to wait until May before seeing our first 20 degrees, but in recent years often April has produced it, sometimes March. Looking at the trend for the remainder of April, it looks like it won't occur this month. 25 degrees can be hard to achieve in depths of summer in some years! Last July a case in point, not once.. but usually June will bring our first 25 degrees. In a number of years May delivers the goods, if high pressure sits overhead for a number of days. 25 degrees is the barometer of a very good summers day here, typically high 20s are not easy to achieve, but recently becoming easier and easier.

As per yesterday, we have stayed dry. I thought we might catch a shower or two. A cool feel though despite the sunshine. A lovely evening, clear skies. May see an air frost early hours.

SunSean Shap 7 hrs up to the 11th - appauling! Sunshine levels in the past few days have been alot better, and with anticipated outlook, April 24 at least here in Cumbria may well end up an average month sunshine wise after such a low base state at mid point.

Models holding firm on a generally more settled theme compared to anything since mid January. I say 'more settled', not exclusively settled which I would describe as dry throughout. After tomorrow's frontal features work through, high pressure looks set to osscilate in our vicinity, first to the west, then building through the UK over the weekend and then advecting north west, pulling in a north easterly flow. I'm waiting for the often used phrase at this time of year 'west is best', all very common synoptics second half of Spring. Look back at the weather archives and you will see this type of synoptic feature often in many years, and often for quite some time. Northerlies and easterlies reach their annual peak hereon until June. For someone in the 'west', its why I rate May my favourite month of the year, most likely to experience less in the way of dank westerlies and southwesterlies, by May the sun is just as strong as in high summer but air temps are tempered.

Interesting stats, not many examples of significant falls as I thought the case for April, probably also May. 1995 keeps cropping up as a comparator month for 2024..

A chilly start. Bright rather than sunny, clouds may bubble up to produce a shower or two. Current temp 8.0 degrees.

Not kept focused on the weather today, other than to say we stayed dry, reading the thread lots of convection about, but not here. Lots of sunshine and far more springlike compared to yesterday. Tomorrow sees a greater threat of showers, Thursday light rain, and then, gosh we might see at least 3 dry days in a row! Hallelujah!

reef April 2024 could go down as one of those classic switcharound months, where first and second half are complete opposites CET wise. Such months include Jan 13, Feb 05, 09, 12, Nov 05.. can't think of others but sure someone with stats will tell me. A finish in the 9s now looking a more and more possible outcome. It is unusual for April and May to see much colder second halves than first halves though..

For the first time in over 3 months, yes that long, the models show high pressure rather than low pressure ruling the roost in the near term. We are not talking a major blocking high that will fend off frontal features, namely as it is forecast to position to our west at first allowing weak frontal features to flow around its NE flank, it then attempts to build over and through to our east but ultimately becomes thwarted by lower heights which look set to develop into a major euro trough. In these set ups which are very common in the latter half of Spring, chilly easterly and north east winds can bring cool damp showery airstreams to the east and south, whilst the north and west holds onto the driest sunniest weather. The only time in the year when the NW is on the 'fine' side of the NW- SE divide. More notable is the return to near average means, again something we haven't seen for any length of time since mid January.

Derecho It will be countered, western parts will see colder mins given shelter from north and east winds. Frigid Also interesting as they came during 'lockdown' periods, 2021 from memory was when we could meet outside in the freezing air!

A tempestuous day, squally downpours and downdraughts, a pool of sub 528 dam air overhead, and consequently cold. Temps hovered between 5 and 8 degrees, fells retained a white coat above 650m.

Memories of heavy snow showers one evening in Newcastle, possibly the Tuesday evening of 16th? The Aprils of 98-00 all brought lying snow after very mild winters with little snow. Interesting 2008 also brought lying snow after a very mild winter, 1989 as well... quite a correlation. April 16 also, again after a very mild winter.

Cold out there, currently 5 degrees, snow line 400m. Winter bites back.

A brrr day forecast tomorrow, don't put those winter woolies to the back of the cupboard just yet. We are forecast to have a brief high of 8 degrees in a very strong NW wind and plenty of heavy showers, little sun. Snow level 400m, freezing level 500m rising to 750m, could be very wintry on the fells.

Are we going to see a classic flip month - first half exceptionally mild, second half average or indeed a bit below.. we shall see. Remember we managed a 2 week slightly colder than average spell 5-19 Jan, more so in the north bookended by notable mild.

Left the gloom dank ridden NW, for a much brighter even sunnier NE right now, a brighter weekend in prospect in Tyne and Wear than the Lake District on the way, but rain will be a feature here as well, just probably lighter and more shortlived.

Cheshire Freeze GFS offers the traditional winter snow cold lover synoptics in mid-late Spring, as said if you asked me when most likely date period for such synoptics, its the six week window we are about to enter, all too common.

Lukesluckybunch Yes, and very normal for second half of Spring. Indeed its rare to not see easterly or northerly episode at some stage in the spring, and they can be prolonged.

Scuba steve Its felt like 4pm in winter all year!