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Cumulus Hunt

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Everything posted by Cumulus Hunt

  1. I make no pretensions to knowing what I'm talking about - my knowledge is entirely amateur & based mostly on what I taught undergrads many many years ago I looked at the charts, described what I saw & tried to visualise what that would mean for us poor folks on the ground. From the information on the charts when I wrote all that guff (a good few days ago now) that you now see on GFF, there was very little to indicate that it was going to be scorching hot & cloudless. The Azores high is there but it was pretty feeble looking, the jetstream is weak & heading directly at us and the the presence of rainy wet stuff to the north & south of roughly where Glastonbury is (bit tricky to nail that down convincingly on a such a large scale map!) doesn't favour a positive forecast no matter how much people want it. I also know it is very likely to change & long range forecasting is a tricky business, but there is a HUGE interest in the weather from festival freaks - particularly Glastonbury ones because of the infamous muds & floods years we've had to endure Netweather's summer forecast is understandably very broad & general at the moment - I'm trying to nail down specific dates & localities well in advance of what proper meteorologists would. I could go into great detail about probabilities & uncertainty & so on & so forth (I have in previous columns on there tried to explain how the whole business of forecasting works in a light hearted way), but really people want to know if they'll need raincoats & wellies. Given the info available at the moment, it wouldn't be right of me to say "yeah it'll be gorgeous", leave the cagoule at home. I should also say a huge thank you to Netweather for giving us access to the long range charts & so on, it's made me hugely happy & I really do want to give people a clue as to what to expect, but when all's said & done it's a bit of fun.
  2. Ooh cunning plans! We like cunning plans Edit: Hmm - I'm not allowed to send e-mails or PMs - is it because I'm new & shiny?
  3. "Not sure they really know what they're doing"????? - Paddydog, I shll be having words with you on Mindless Banter Hello btw - I am the ~ahem~ 'Weather Doc' on Glastofestivalforecast. I'm not a meteorologist, but I do actually have a PhD in reservoir sedimentation rates, part of which involved looking at seasonal variation in rainfall & the like. I also taught meteorology at basic level to undergraduates. What I am reasonably good at is interpreting charts - I impressed myself one year by predicting to the hour when we would have showers at Glastonbury by interpreting forecast maps. The GFF site is meant to be a bit of fun, but I am very serious about trying to produce if not my own forecast then at least a reasonable precis of the forecasts out there. If anyone does have good links to forecast sites (other than the usual metchecks, weatheronline & this one), particularly those that will give longer term forecasts with maps of pressure, precipitation & winds, we'd all be really chuffed, and your name will live in glory evermore, and praised unto the highest, yea even unto thy firstborn. My gut reaction for this year's Glastonbury? "Simpsons" skies with fluffy white clouds, breezy, not too cold & with the occasional shower coupled with the odd rumble of thunder. Same as usual then All help gratefully received & acknowledged on GFF (Pleased to see there's a weather photography forum on herre too - I may have a contribution or two for that one).
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