liquidjp

Could be... depending on how far north into the jet it goes, we could be looking at some very "summery" weather this weekend...

Are the systems just coming off the coast of africa likely to be worth noting or is it too early to tell, the SST around there seems warm enough for development.

according to the tide forcast the tidal range is really low so the surge is going to do some major damage whenever it hits.

THe latest from good old 42361 Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 56.3 kts Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.58 in The wind speed has massivle dropped, significatly (I think) wind direction has also changed... could the eye, such that it is be passing over? edit: no pressure isn't falling

Without wanting to personify Ike further, it's almost as if he is acting like an inpetulant child just to p*** off the NHC!!

Whats the lag time on that station? have got results as of 3pm BST

RE: high and low tides the tidal range at Gaveston and surrounding costline is only about 1-2ft maximum so even a hit at low tide would not offer much relief from the surge. (meant to post ages ago but building just got lightninged!)

Ah contraire I still have to look up loads of the abreviations!! But given we have sustained winds of 108!!kts now at our little buoy (bit oil rig) are we expencting the NHC up up the forcast? Why are the NHC giving forcasts/advisories in 3 time zones, am sure they don't usually do?

Yes i know i know i had forgot to click submit... I'll go back to lurking and frantically hitting F5;)

09125:45 am NNE95.2-----28.76-80.6-75.2 Just short of Cat 3 75 mins ago, thou this was at elevation of 122 meters. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

How strong are these thing, could it take a direct hit from a severly misbehaving hurricane and still transmit?

The mountains to the west of Havanna arne't going to do it a lot of good if it goes straight over them, but if Ike tracks slightly north through the gap...and dirctly over Havanna, it will probobally be in a healthier state. What are we talking about 4-5 hours overland?

The NHC are essentially saying they really have little idea where this is going as of an hour or so ago. Certainly makes for "fun" times along the GOM...

Indeed... where are the models taking him? further west and through 'the gap' or NW hugging the cuba coast and back over Cuba? The former is better for Havana I guess. The evacuation question is a biggie, and am sure many are wrongly accusing naggin of now having egg on his face after the near miss with Gustav. I think many will not shift out a second time in one season, which could be very bad news is Ike tracks back eastwards.

Bit off topic as it's not net.levees but i think that given that NO didn't take the full hit of hurricane force winds the levees will hold, just, but there may be some overtopping, and certainly some flooding in central NO due to heavy rain. The downside of this is that when people return to a larely intact city (a good thing) they will question why they evacuated and may not be so eager too next time (a bad thing). There is a lot of tornado activity east of NO at the moment, if Gus is taking a shifty to the west this could be bad news.