Day10

Going well here Nr Wantage Oxfordshire... For everyone else.

Griff, I've been confused for the last 13 years on this forum.... Appreciate the input btw..

Or he maybe he's Darren Bett's love child?? (Only joking) Merry Christmas, thanks to everyone who spends the time writing some really interesting and informative posts.

Be driving on the other side of the road then!

It's not difficult

Absolutely! low visibility, high winds, towering cumulus and snow... plenty of... Brest Metar: LFRB 011130Z AUTO 05016KT 1800 1400 R25/P2000 R07/1500U SN BR OVC007/// ///TCU M01/M02 Q0987 TEMPO 1200 SN OVC006 BECMG 06015G25KT

Soz, Just asked our 'in house' forecaster as to what she thought of the GFS and its output.. This is her response: 'It’s tricky regarding the uncertainty, there are some signs that the GM is perhaps the outlier to the majority of other solutions at the minute for later in the week, hence some of the uncertainty! The GM wants to fragment the ppn moving NE across SE England through Friday and it’s this which is slightly at odds with other output so at the minute the chief has been making modifications to GM output, but like I said still a few days out.' Anyway, back to the regionals...

Are these the ones Blue?

Probably been posted before, but gives a great visual perspective. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=27.36,52.67,157 P

And no sausage in sight!

Near Wantage, still snowing...

Nope, ours have a 38kt limit

I’m supposed to be landing an A320 in Belfast on Monday night. Timing wise, do we have any estimate? Cheers

On our A320's we say a tonne of fuel per half hour of holding. Not much fuel used in the descent (N1's back at idle), starts to drink it when in the hold. A fairly heavy aircraft won't be thrown around like an empty A320, which can sometimes feel like flying a crisp packet on a windy day!

I think you covered all weather bases there Frosty...

I won't de-rail the thread too much! Numerous provisions: From a Pilot perspective, you have HOT ( holdover times ) with regards de icing and then anti icing . Clean wing concept. You then have inevitable delays, therefore fuel and delays at destination if affected. Low vis can lead to increase seperation between a/c, also with a snow/slush/ice runway landing distances increase. Wind orientation and strength can put the a/c out of limits.. The list is endless..

Just in from our lovely met person at work... This is the current assessment but, with the uncertainty surrounding this event, the most likely outcome may change, so regular updates will be issued. There is low confidence of a high impact event occurring over the S of the UK as a low pressure system tracks E across the country. This is due to affect the London area between 1500-2100Z with Bristol also likely to be affected by sleet/wet snow from 12Z. These values are for the SE in general and may vary slightly between individual airports (LGW, LTN, STN, SEN). There is a 80-90% chance of heavy rain turning to wet snow and a 60% chance of 0-2cm accumulations of wet snow. Should the low pressure deepen further there is a 40% of 2-5cm accumulations with an added risk of strong winds with variable wind directions (gusting 35-45KT). This may lead to blizzard conditions, particularly at LGW, and an increased risk of snow accumulations at N London airports. The least likely scenario (10-20%) is for 5-10cm accumulations with localized 45+KT gusts. There is a risk of BHX being at risk, but the position of the northern edge of the front is uncertain. After the weather system clears, whether the precipitation falls as rain or snow, the temperature will drop sharply to give a widespread ice risk overnight and into Friday. These values may change in the run up to the event so any public weather enquiries are best directed to the Met Office Severe weather warning page which is updated regularly: www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

My one and only post on the 'model discussion' forum, and one that I understand.. Merry Christmas to one and all...

Where you putting the sweet spot Steve?

Best I could do, sorry no ice! The Udachnaya Pipe Diamond Mine, Russia which is apparently close on 600m in depth... Gulp

Hi John, as promised.. Sorry not great photos! You should be able to just make out SR ( Shear Rate ), goes with the info from Exeter.. Regards Paul

Pyrénées, enroute BCN 30/12/13. Taken from the office window