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SnOwFeSt

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Everything posted by SnOwFeSt

  1. Winds have really picked up over the past 30 minutes. It was howling all last night then calmed this morning.. now it’s really ramping up! an interesting 48 hours of weather to come for sure.
  2. I put £10 at 8-1 for xmas day snow in London last week when it was looking very promising. I dont regret making it.. a couple of hundred miles difference and I would have been in!! A fairly decent, but very wet covering here in west Leeds! I'm not sure whether it came before midnight as I was asleep!
  3. Fascinating model watching and lots of extreme mood swings on here based on the latest outputs. Its one of these potentially high risk-high reward situations, which might come down to the day.. especially in the north of england northwards.. Some fabulous snow totals could accumulate if we can just squeeze a couple of degrees lower and get those lower heights (with lower dew points) in.
  4. tbf even when i've been in the alps and its -5c during the day the snow still melts on the road/ cars etc as the solar radiation takes patches of ice/snow above freezing. It quickly refreezes when in the shade/ under cloud though!
  5. Wow. Unbelievable amount of snow. And this is just the start for them. You wonder at what point people need evacuating from this- I mean no food, house buried and presumably no way in or out. Unless they’ve stocked up and are just hunkering down for the next few weeks?!
  6. Low pressure is showing as much weaker mid-week on GFS. From memory of past cold spells, they always struggle much more to break through once the cold air in entrenched. Lets hope the trend continues! Ideal scenario would be we get a slider pushed over us with subsequent snow dumping! I'm still looking at the chunk of vortex north of scandi. If the atlantic bits of vortex are weaker and further south and keep tranding this way, we could see a reload from the north!
  7. Seems to be a bit of a north south divide. Up here in Leeds it has been a very cold and snowy winter so far. Just 7 above average days, 12 max temps below 2c, 22 min temps below 0 and 3 ice days and (from vague memory) at least 8 days with at least 50% snow cover. Our average temp for the month was 1.84. Remove the 4 warmest days and the average for the month would have 1.1c
  8. About 15 cm of snow here at work. Only just made it in this morning. I live 6 miles away, so may well have to walk home as roads are all gridlocked and its still throwing it down..
  9. Looks real knife edge stuff doesn't it? I think it will come down to nowcasting. It currently looks the wrong side of marginal, but has been trending in the right direction in very tiny increments!
  10. Heavy snow and settling despite the very wet ground this morning in west Leeds. Very marginal, but I think ourt 140m above sea level has helped. Though not quite the epic BFTE style weather, this is our 4th settling snow fall so far this winter (many more sleetly/ wet snow events), and temps well below average, so its just great to see good solid, consistent seasonal weather. I see the 'mild spell' on the forecast is not as mild as previously forecast. Now forecast to get no higher than 6c, with continued night frosts, before dropping back (and potentially much colder) from next week onwards. I do think the persistence of the cold has lowered the ground temps - ground frosts appear very readily now and the tap water temp is absolutely freezing!
  11. We’ve had snow all day and fun out sledding and making snowmen with the kids today. ..None of which was forecast until this morning. With low pressure and deep cold air around anything can happen at short notice!
  12. Very snowy run and not miles out in FI for a change. I think gfs is picking up on the ssw response- with more arctic heights and reversal in tropospheric winds. I don’t want to call things too early, but this is really starting to look like a classic winter. More runs needed as ever!
  13. Love it when snow just develops in situ. I’m guessing it is being caused by slightly milder, moisture laden air running into colder air over land. I’m hopeful we’ll get some snow within the next couple of hours. Surface conditions look good too. Currently -2c and no rise yet.
  14. I disagree. We’re looking at at least 10 days of significantly below average temps. Even based on the ‘milder’ projections the CET will be running at 4+ degrees below the long term average for at least the first half of january. ..and that’s before we factor in the potential for much much colder weather down the line based on the hemispheric pattern and potential SSW effects. This is not bog standard winter weather by any stretch.
  15. Fantastic looking runs this morning. Gfs has a great slider coming in from Greenland. Lots of moisture and cold air wrapped up in it and coming into the existing cold air sat over us. Yes it’s not a deep freeze type of cold spell (maximas will scrape above zero), but could be extremely snowy, particularly more northern areas with a bit of elevation. Fantastic stuff from an imby perspective and looking like more reloads to come from it, each progressively colder. We’re in the cusp of a classic cold spell I think. Another couple of days to firm up on the post Xmas reload..
  16. GFS showing better amplification and 850s a degree or 2 cooler on Xmas eve. Could see some nice flurries on Xmas eve then a lovely cold crisp Xmas day. Then the main course to come! Perfect!!
  17. Fascinating output this morning which will surely keep me hooked on here over the coming days. If it comes off it does feel like quite a locked in pattern which could last for a good couple of weeks at least. And occurring at a colder time of year than dec 2010, March 2013/2018 etc!
  18. Snowing lightly in west Leeds for the past 40 mins and light dusting on the ground. Strange as there is absolutely nothing showing on the radar. I can only assume it is precipitating out of the fog, and therefore too low to be getting picked up by the radar.
  19. Hope to god that streamer coming off the bottom of Flamborough head gives us a direct hit. Looks like it might at the moment, but it is such a narrow band. Could give at least an hours dumping from anyone under it, with very little either side!!!
  20. Is there anyone from the scilly isles on here? I'm assuming you are getting some lying snow looking at the radar? A wider question: have the scilly isles ever had lying snow in March, or are you likely to break a record tomorrow?!
  21. Welcome from Yorkshire. We're doing alright down here, but nothing compared to what you guys are getting at the moment, and look likely to get for the rest of the afternoon. I'm Interested in knowing what depths you've got so far? And an idea of drift sizes? About 10cm here, most of which fell in about an hour this morning. Added to the 5cm we got yesterday, so not bad!
  22. Looking at the radar flow, I can see a small area of convergence setting up right over my area in west leeds/ Bradford. Showers developing almost over head, even though we are north of the main streamer (which is currently hammering south Yorkshire!) Shower activity generally pepping up, and more showers out over the north sea, which should hit west Yorkshire later the afternoon. Don't give up hope west Yorkshire, there are a lot of interesting things happening, and an evolving picture. Keep looking at the radar!!
  23. looks like a more organised streamer is setting up, Its only thin, but thankfully my location is sat right under it! Still very wet and not really settling mind.
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