Arnost

Thank's Android - I purposefully linked to the datasets so that anyone can replicate, and improve on this... (PS are you also posting this elsewhere?)

I completely agree with John above: this is a fascinating topic and so I can't resist and have to drop in… Android above identified the apparent correlation between the ENSO and temperatures. I also know that curve fitting is a bad thing – but it's so tempting…Here's something to stimulate the debate: If one extends the MEI to its starting point in Jan 1950 and maps that against HadCRU temps (or the temp index of choice) it becomes apparent that the (visual) correlation really breaks down at the time of El Chichon – a time where there was that "other super-El Nino" – see below circled. Obviously, volcanoes make an impact, so when the impact of associated stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols is corrected for – the correlation is indeed very good. But with one exception – at the beginning the correlation is very high, but it breaks down toward the end and the temperatures climb above that of the corrected MEI – see above circled. It must be noted that stratospheric aerosols are not the only thing that effect the temperatures. For example there are also tropospheric aerosols (and obviously greenhouse gasses). Graphing from 1970 is a bit of a short time-frame. Even from 1950 is a bit so-so when we can do it from 1880!. Instead of the MEI, we can use the SOI. The below is the SOI (green line) against HadCRU from July 1880 (blue line) to current: I have (in this case) used Kevin Trenberth's Standardised SOI. The dotted line is the Greenhouse Gas and the red line is the combined (Stratospheric, Tropospheric and Indirect) aerosol forcings used in GISS Model E (which I used to adjust the MEI above…). The SOI appears not to be a factor in temperature trends… But is this really so? If we adjust the SOI by the Aerosol forcings then we get: Not bad – but there are a few times where the relationship breaks down a bit (circled). As pointed out above, the AMO is a player. When we adjust for that we get: I think that's pretty good…! Now, I have not used or adjusted for solar forcing (as Android showed above), there may well be a relationship between solar and ENSO (and the AMO for that matter). Food for thought and discussion! Sources: Model E forcings from: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelE/transient...#climsim_table1 MEI from: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html Standard SOI from: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soiAnnual.html (Australian BoM SOI available here: ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sc...iplaintext.html ) AMO from: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data HadCRU temperature: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagn...l/nh+sh/monthly Methodology: All the data from above have been used as downloaded with the exception of the Std SOI index, which was inverted and scaled down by a factor of 50. Oh yes… If I adjust the above model by the GHGs using the same methodology, this is what I get: http://i43.tinypic.com/1766on.jpg Cheers!

A very interesting point. When the predictions were made - I'm guessing some six months ago or so - the state of the Pacific equatorial sub-surface was such that a formation of a Nino by year end was odds-on. The models also supported this view. This coupled with a (admitedly very weak) correlation between El Ninos and the start of solar-cycles would have made it logical to project a Nino - and even a strong one - in December. In my opinion, it is now extremely unlikley that a Nino will form in the next two months. The current sub-surface, the SOI, the OLR, the GLAAM, and the Trade Winds all support the story that the ocean and the atmosphere is in a Nina state. And the sea surface is slowly coming into line as well (Nino 3.4 was already at -0.5C a week or two back). The persistence of ENSO state across the end of year and beyond is a known feature. Whether a full blown Nina delvelops - who knows, but I would suggest that there is now no chance of a warm-neutral ENSO state, let alone a Nino of any kind, well into the new year. Now - trying to throw out a lifeline... about a month ago there was a WWB (westerly wind burst) in the west Pacific that generated a Kelvin wave that's now pushing a sub-surface warm pulse slowly across the Pacific. And it appears to be reasonably strong... It has a (admitedly) small potential of killing off the developing Nina. And the sun's startig to be a bit more active. Contrary to what the current models - where the latest (blue) runs suggest a moderate/strong Nina early next year - there may be rapid turnaround to a Nino state - and we may have the strongest Nino of this decade in 09/10. This is worthwhile watching, but IMHO a long shot at the moment. So - did Mr Dilley get swayed by the consensus on the future state of the ENSO when making his prediction or was he true to his model/theory?

David, thanks for the reply... First 82/83 El Nino (probably even bigger than the '98 Nino) was masked by El Chichon... Second, I fully agree that forecasting agencies have been caught by surprise - I follow them, and for example Scripps and POAMA leave a lot to be desired with their performance over the last year... Third, I have no credibility to lose, so I can "predict" a borderline weak/moderate Nina by December with impunity. Should a Nina occur however, then your credibility and the utility of your theory is at risk... And please don't assume that I am in any way denigrating your work - any theory to have scientific credibility must be able to used to make testable predictions. That you do so is a credit.

David, I've been following this thread avidly. Your PFM theory is to me very interesting... However, you have made a testable prediction where you call a moderate/strong Nino by year's end. A couple of months ago, this was indeed a strong possibility. From my reading of the current atmospheric and (importantly) sub surface conditions, this is no longer the case. The tropical Pacific OLR remains positive, the 200mb zonal winds are pretty much well positive, and tellingly, the GLAAM has been steadily negative. All atmospheric Nina state indicators. Even the SOI has not gone into deep negatives, and is still in neutral territory. From the news item linked above: This warm pool no longer exists, and in fact over the last month the sub-surface has cooled significantly and is beginning to look similar to last year... I asked on the previous page... "What would what would a cooling of the November and December Pacific Tropics do to your theory?" And you answered: I accept that this is what your theory says and if a Nino actually does eventuate over the boreal winter your theory will have great corroboration, however, it now appears that this is not what's going to happen... So, if I may, can I rephrase the question: "Hypothetically, if the pacific tropics cool over November and December, what will this do to your theory?" cheers Arnost

May well have happened... There is this speculation that the Younger Dryas was initiated by a cometary impact. Assuming it occurred, it would go a long way to explaining the various mega-fauna extinctions at around that time (and not just the abrupt climate shift). cheers

David, Here in Australia, the state of the ENSO is followed closely as it has significant impact oun our climate. And I think I have a good layman's understanding of the phenomenon - this is how I read the current ENSO state: 200mb zonal winds - currently positive (a cold ENSO signal) OLR (160W to 160E) - currently positive (a cold ENSO signal) GLAAM - steadily negative (strongly a cold ENSO signal) SOI - fluctuating and near zero on both the 30 day and 90 day averages (neutral ENSO) One of the most consistent ways of reading the potential future state of the ENSO is the sub-surface. To have any chance of an El Nino developing, the sub-surface has to be warm (or at least neutral). And there has been a significant cooling of the sub-surface over the last month. There is now a cold spot 150m under Nino3.4 that is now more than -2C below climatology. See here: So at the moment, I would suggest that the chances of an El Nino (i.e. SST anomalies in Nino3 & Nino4 regions greater than +0.5) in the November/December period are next to zero. In fact, I would suggest that there is a better chance of a La Nina than neutral... Can I ask what would a cooling of the November and December Pacific Tropics do to your theory?

Is it possible that the "crack" is actually a ship (icebreaker) track? I know that McMurdo is regularly visited by ship...

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/DOUGLASPAPER.pdf The article may be accessed via at Icecap via the above link cheers Arnost