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radiohead

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Everything posted by radiohead

  1. radiohead
    Snow for pretty much everyone on the ECM tonight
  2. radiohead
    An excellent GFS for a sustained cold spell. Still cold at 240. Who cares what the output is after that, FI starts long before 240 so those deep FI charts won't verify anyway.
  3. radiohead
    Excellent 06Z GFS for extending the cold. We don't get the frontal snow opportunity with this but it's less risky.
  4. radiohead
    Cold all the way to the end of the run, only brief blips of rain turning back to snow in SW areas. At the end of the run it looks like another band of frontal snow is about to push in from the south.
  5. radiohead
    Heavy snow on the ECM between 168 and 192.
  6. radiohead
    Looks largely similar to the 12Z out to 144
  7. radiohead
    Snow charts change dramatically with every run after about 120 hours. Especially in this set up with the high uncertainty of low pressure running up against the cold air. Great run for extended cold.
  8. radiohead
    Low doesn't slide, instead stalls and dumps heavy snow over SW Ireland and then the cold air sweeps back in from the east by 168, -9 uppers.
  9. radiohead
    Think I would trust the ECM at the 96-120 range more than any other model. Should be an interesting evening!
  10. radiohead
    That's yesterday's 12Z. Today's 12Z is out to 108 so far.
  11. radiohead
    Major differences between the GFS and UKMO at even 96 hours, which puts everything beyond that into question even more than usual....
  12. radiohead
    Yes, apart from the extreme SW there.
  13. radiohead
    Big difference between the 0Z and 06Z model guidance on the track of Azores low. Latest models now showing the low meandering/slowing down in the Atlantic. 0Z: 06Z:
  14. radiohead
    Looks like 2m temperature of -10 south of London at ECM 240. Might be an outlier in FI But the more important thing is it's good at the more reliable 144 - 168 timeframe. And while the UKMO is little different, it is also very good in terms of snow at 168.
  15. radiohead
    Just for fun, because it will change again on the next run, but ECM snow depth charts showing a very extensive covering of snow by 192.
  16. radiohead
    Wow that is a great ECM at 168.
  17. radiohead
    UKMO definitely the most interesting at 168...
  18. radiohead
    The far southwest does get significant snow from it, but of course it could be further north or not exist at all on the next run. Interesting possibility though!
  19. radiohead
    Interesting secondary low on the GFS at 174.... somewhere about to get some frontal snow from that?
  20. radiohead
    Azores low noticeably further north at 120 on the 06Z GFS.
  21. radiohead
    It it wasn't for that pesky low that pops up off the coast of Scotland late in the run then even colder air would have flooded westward. Potential is there for something really special. 0Z ECM will be fun.
  22. radiohead
    All this illustrates is the reason why we use the term "Fantasy Island" when looking at anything beyond the reliable timeframe!
  23. radiohead
    -18 uppers in the SE in 1991 May have even reached -19 on the coast.
  24. radiohead
    I don't think the UK would have seen uppers that cold since 1991? Not 100% sure though.
  25. radiohead
    Dew points could be marginal. Wait for the NAVGEM.
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