Totoro

Snowing lightly south of Carmarthen, not settling, temp 1.7C and very slowly falling.

Agreed, the 'jam' is nearly always a week away. As for this forthcoming 'event' early next week, I'm also not convinced of any widespread snow, especially in the south and the west where you'll be 'lucky' to see a bit of sleet.

From a general, overall UK perspective I have to say that going from the various model outputs we appear to be enduring a particularly insipid and uninspiring spell of 'weather'. Anything particularly interesting is generally a week away. The problem is that it's almost always a week away. Some in the south east may get moderate snow at times, but the rest of us are stuck in nothingness.

Love this timelapse video of a letter box vanishing under a heck of a lot of snow: http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/weatherzombie/3/video.html?month=02&year=2010&filename=current.flv

Agreed. Plus, assuming that the current GFS output verifies (unlikely as it's a week away!) there is some less cold air being mixed up into the flow in a week's time so a cold easterly would then turn into a less cold easterly. Didn't the same thing happen around Christmas 2009 ?

But the 192 is so far away that such details won't be known until much nearer the time. Stick to t+72 and you'll be far happier.

My last reply to your post was deleted - I have no idea why. Okay, it's a tad off topic, but so is your question which has obviously remained. Anyhow, my answer was that your summary sounds reasonable to me.

Couldn't agree more. However, what I'm trying to prevent is the reactionary posts to anything past t+72 as if such output will definitely occur. I'm not saying don't discuss things past t+72, simply don't take them as fact. Your posts are pretty much spot on TEITS, but those from some other posters are far more emotive and reactionary which often leads to general unpleasantness.

Excellent post, you said it far better than I did. Can't help but notice that a few days ago people were generally agreeing that anything beyond about t+72 was highly unreliable, yet as soon as anything particularly cold and/or snowy appears on the charts at t+96 onwards people once again get sucked in. Likewise if, in the same FI timeframe, the model output then changes to something less favourable. Let's have a little more analysis and objectivity here and stop taking much notice of anything past 72 hours.

Wise words. Couldn't agree more.

That ECM t+72 will do fine. Not taking much notice of anything beyond that.

Careful people, don't get carried away. Anything past t+72 really is FI and very uncertain, whatever the model.

There's a message on 'the other weather forum' that moderately critical data was missing plus that there was low data on the 06z GFS run. Or was that also mentioned here and I missed it?

Their 15 day forecasts are best ignored - remember only a couple of days ago they were going for "very, very cold" weather next week. Too much changing at present. As is now the case, ignore anything past 72 hours, and don't even take that as 100% accurate.

Indeed. Time will tell. Although now the 'getting colder' output is in a more reliable timeframe. I think it could be said that the only consistency in the models of late has been their inconsistency.

Codge is a known stirrer and turns up like a bad penny whenever mild charts are shown. I hope he gets firmer treatment here than he did when he was a regular troll on 'that other weather forum'.

Looking good, but nowhere near 'nailed on' yet. When the 144 output is showing consistently across all models in the 48 to 72 hour range THEN I'll start taking it a bit more seriously. :lol:

Now I know that these charts aren't very accurate, but interesting to see the prognosis for snow on a number of days: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-60.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-84.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-108.png?6

Oh I don't know, I think you've done very well, unlike the flip flopping models. I still wouldn't say that this is cut and dried either way - even 3 days ahead the model outputs vary greatly, even from run to run on the same model - I have a sneaky hunch that the Atlantic will 'win', but it also wouldn't surprise me if we end up with kind kind of easterly or south easterly. Fence-sitting seems to be the preferred option right now.

Quite a number of showers coming into Wales now, particularly in the north - looks like anyone could some SOME snow today. I even saw a short, light shower a while ago.

I don't think it'll be 'solved' by one run from one model.

Wouldn't we prefer the cold air to push West and not East?

Evens the pros get it wrong. My belief is in my 'gut instinct'. Never fails.

Belief? What does that have to do with it? This isn't a religion you know, we can't influence the weather any more than we can influence those imaginary gods that some people think exist. I'm thinking that Ian Fergusson is wrong, also that many people are clutching at too few straws, the real cold weather is always a week away (ie in FI) on the model output, etc. Sorry, but I don't think it's going to happen. I'd LIKE it to happen, but I think it's more likely that I'll suddenly develop the brainpower of Einstein overnight. :lol: I'm a realist, I don't operate on flights of fancy and what 'should' happen or what I (or others) want to happen. With the weather, what will be will be. Enough said.

Shame it's a week away.