Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

tropical madness

Members
  • Posts

    17
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Ealing, London

tropical madness's Achievements

Newbie

Newbie (1/14)

  • Conversation Starter

Recent Badges

6

Reputation

  1. Daniel - still a beginner with this forum so not sure how to reply. Heres the link http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=65.00146&lon=19.54158&zoom=4&laga=nedb%C3%B8rskyer&proj=3575
  2. Heres an additional model to look at. The Norwegian hi-res (or is it the HIRLAM that they use??) has the precip spreading further east. Looking forward to whatever happens!
  3. Currently 975hPa with sustained 85kt winds. Gusts at 120kts. The JMA predicts it to intensify to ~940hPa within 48 hours. Fun fun fun!
  4. Nakri now in the dissipating stage with a central pressure ~970mb. Its projected to curve NE-wards and miss Japan as it encounters cooler waters and the mid-latitude westerlies which increases the vertical wind shear and disrupts its structure.
  5. Its a little baby of a super typhoon tho isnt it! haha! Im wishing for something a lot larger like Typhoon Tip!! (highly unlikely tho)
  6. The JMA have predicted further intensification of Super Typhoon Nakri to a possible 910hPa by early Saturday which would make it a category 5 no doubt. Luckily its slow and away from land. Possibly will veer off eastwards soon.
  7. Ive just found some interesting theory by Kerry Emauel which relates to our discussion about the global warming induced area theoretically increasing the likelyhood of TCs. "An oft-stated misconception about tropical cyclones is that were the area enclosed by the 26 C SST isotherm to increase, so too would the area experiencing tropical cyclogenesis. Regions prone to tropical cyclogenesis are better characterized as places where the atmosphere is slowly ascending on the largest scales. Since about as much atmosphere is descending as ascending, it is hard to change the total area experiencing ascent. Thus there is little basis for believing that there would be any substantial expansion or contraction of the area of the world prone to tropical cyclogenesis. This is borne out by the GCM simulations performed by Haarsma et al. (1992), who show that while there is a substantial increase in the area enclosed by the 26 C SST isotherm is a double CO2 environment, there is no perceptible increase in the area experiencing tropical cyclones. It is conceivable, though, that changes in the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere would increase or decrease the rate of movement of tropical cyclones out of their genesis regions and into higher latitudes. It is also likely that changes in atmospheric circulation and SST distribution within the tropics would be associated with variations in the distribution of storms and of the tracks they follow, thus affecting the locations and frequency of landfall. INTERESTING! lol
  8. ohhh interesting insight mate. Ive been using the HadCM3 model (that the IPCC greatly relied on during the 3rd assessment report) as part of my dissertation and it does show for doubled CO2 levels that a generally wetter, and warmer tropics will be established. I have still yet to work out what the change in wind shear would be. However, this model doesn't have the upper tropospheric temperatures which is a shame. Because what you proposed about if temperatures do cool, which might be a possibility due to the aerosols (not too sure), then indeed a greater lapse rate could enhance the genesis of stronger or more frequent TCs. hmmmm Switching to another aspect, a huge increase in temperature in the Amazon was observed on the temperature charts ive constructed. Which sort of hints to me that the dying vegetation would aid the dispersion of carbon hence increasing the greenhouse gas concentration. And with all the temperature increasing in the polar regions, the melting of the permafrost would inevitably release vast amounts of trapped Methane. With Methane a more effective greenhouse gas, I reckon the increase in global temperatures could be higher than the 1-4C I obtained. Maybe 1-6C could be a reasonable guess. Anyway Ive veered off the topic a bit hehe thanks for your opinion tho. very interesting, if u come of with more good stuff, keep the comments goin
  9. heya, my knowledge of the jet stream is rather limited aswell but a thought popped into my mind. I may be completely wrong so sorry if i am lol but i thought its worth mentioning. Isnt the jet stream in the Atlantic strongly influeced by the North Atlantic Oscillation??? im sure i read somewhere that if the NAO index is in the +ve regime, the pressure gradient between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is large, hence strengthening westerly winds (jet stream) and bringing all the crap towards the UK. Saying that ive just checked on wikipedia for a quick explanation (i know its not professional, but a university student relies on it for a quick answer hehe)! It says "A large difference in the pressure at the two stations (a high index year, denoted NAO+) leads to increased westerlies and, consequently, cool summers and mild and wet winters in Central Europe and its Atlantic façade" ive also looked into the current NAO index (attached) to see if it is indeed in the +ve regime...and it does reveal that this is the case, despite being weak, since ~December 23rd of last year. Which would I guess explain a strengthened jet stream bringing all the onionse in one after another from late last year. pardon my language! but you have to agree with me on that one! lol As for why its further south than usual or its meridional movement, i havent got a clue as of yet but Im guessing its partially to do with the NAO again and the balance of these pressures. Im guessing that the Icelandic low is stronger than usual, dominating the region and pushing the jet stream further south! anyways i hope this brought a perspective on what might be causing all this wind and rain!
  10. heya guys, Obviously this topic is a highly debated one and theres countless theories/global climate models and their projections simulating how global warming might affect the intensity, duration, frequency or even location of these TCs. A huge uncertainty in the area is also apparent due to the lack of longterm reliable data, biased observation techniques prior to the satellite era and the resolution of these models. However, I was just wondering and curious to hear what your thoughts are since this is part of my dissertation topic . hehe. some specific ideas might be... - how the vertical wind shear, area susceptible to TCs, atmospheric temperature profile, etc may be altered due to an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gasses. - how not only does global warming but large scale natural variability such as ENSO, Madden-Jullian Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, etc affect tropical cyclogenesis. - agreed/disagree with Kerry Emanuel or other proposed theories/simulations. - or any other relevant comments really! cheers :lol:
  11. My favorite has to be Typhoon Man-Yi... It was pretty intense for a July typhoon.. i think the central pressure reached something like 930hPa? But anyways I was gettin bored :huh: of the UK weather and went back to Japan for the summer holidays, only to have typhoon Man-Yi come along and give me some exciting stuff!! hehehe
×
×
  • Create New...