The ensemble run charts are an average across all (50?) ensemble runs, so will always dampen the heights of lows due to the different positioning of the low centres in each run. Same goes for high pressures.
Does anyone know who are the major manufacturers of sledges? Think it's time to buy some shares!!
Oh and just out of curiosity, any ideas how many days of subzero temps does it take to freeze over the thames?
I think we need to remember the 850temps are almost above freezing in the south wast atm, sleet is the best we can hope for until around midnight, here's hoping there is still plenty of precip around then!