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mwhalber

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    Shooter's Hill, London (432 feet - 132 m ASL)

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  1. I agree, I normally defend the UKMO, but the lack of warnings for this system is indefensible. Looking at the radar last night about midnight, I honestly could not believe that the MO had no issued anything in the way of guidance...did they take the night off!?! Were they snowed in down there in Exeter? I am really starting to lose faith in their predictions and guidance. What use are warnings being issued *as* the event takes place?!
  2. Sorry, but this is not true. The reason it might be melting for you is due to the encroaching warm front.
  3. clear skies here in shooter's hill (London). Looks to me like the precip associated with the overrunning warm front from europe is fizzling out. what do you guys think?
  4. It really comes down to data points. In continental climes, we have data for systems as they move across land...in our maritime climate, most systems move off of the sea/ocean where we only have ship reports. Less data == less accurate forecasts, so yes, technically it is more difficult.
  5. conjecture != model discussion. Please back up statements with data.
  6. based upon what data are you making this statement? what downgrade, on what model panels/runs for the SE? please back up your statements with data.
  7. agreed. This feature seems to be around on the NOGAPS for Friday Midday as well, with the eastern cold pool having arrived on the continent
  8. It looks to me like the GFS keeps both the polar and russian cold pools away from england, however, the GEM seems to bring both over blighty on Sunday...and keeps them there for a significant period. The GFS shows some precip/convection around the same period over the London area shortly before (-6h), but this is mixing models, so not very accurate. My feeling is that the best chance for a major event, based upon current output is Sunday daytime. What do you guys think?
  9. Probably evaporating in the upper layers...should start if they become saturated, i guess.
  10. pressure still dropping here 979mb, winds from the ENE and temp up 1C in the past hour...very foggy and very light rain.
  11. I agree, it really seems that they are just constantly covering their a**es instead of making accurate calls on the weather!
  12. latest update from LCY METAR shows that temp has dropped to DP, (-2C in one hour), however DP and pressure have remained steady. 9 AM (14) Feb 05 37 (3) 37 (3) 29.18 (0988) WNW 2 light rain showers
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