-uksnow-

2.9°C and 105mm

Perhaps for the UK, yes, but to be fair they were extremely accurate for snow predictions here in Oslo.

GFS definitely struggling again at the moment it seems with inter run variability - to add to this that damn M4 is playing up again.

Truly astonishing charts at the moment, recorded an ice day in 2013 on the south coast so being two weeks earlier that isnt going to be a problem again now. Look North-East, the frozen eagle is about to pounce again.. Looks like i've timed my return trip from snowy Oslo next wednesday perfectly!

Nothing warm about 850s at 144 (UKMO) - fantastic to see you guys in the UK finally getting some luck this winter, definitely no worries about cold air to your east with -15 highs predicted here next week.

Anyone got google translate? By day 14 of todays 12z EPS were seeing signs of a Scandinavian block appearing, certainly a better picture than yesterdays day 15 - Hopefully its picking up on some amplitude which *hopefully* will gather pace in coming runs.

Not strictly UK related, but over the past month of snow here in Oslo they have performed to within an inch every time. ECM 168 seems to be pulling something else out the bag tonight, signs of our Scandi friend appearing.

Not that its worth overanalysing a 10 day chart but I think the 12 day wouldnt be that bad, push of heights from the atlantic the russian high nudging in over a sinking scandi trough. No denying that its a lot flatter than previous ECMs with our first signs of a more organised vortex though..

Ca. 7 inches for large parts of the south coast.

Very good 12z so far in my opinion, GFS is back up to last nights tricks of burying somewhere across the midlands..

Yes less amplifie but by 168 the heights are cut off around Greenland as opposed to shunted and sinking east like the 6z, so an upgrade in my opinion.

To be honest I think we've overcome the first hurdle now, but the look of 3 lows spinning around eachother in the Atlantic al la GFS seems unlikely to me, it never handles that kind of energy well. UKMO seems the better option keeping them split slightly. Think the trend so far is our friend, but i expect post 120hr improvements on successive GFS runs when it gets a handle on the atlantic lows..

Been snowing in Oslo for the last 12 hours now (fourth snow event in the last 2 weeks), but just like Nick S I cannot keep my eyes off the UKs prospects! 6z certainly upping the stakes again, this is a remarkably close situation. 6z is similar to but also an improvement on the UKMO 168 chart.. A lot resting on the 12zs (...again..)

Can confirm that, another 4" in Oslo today - Now raining and -0.7 after a low of -7.7 this morning!

Certainly a better 12z coming in the shorter range, that low coming off America has slowed down significantly allowing cleaner Atlantic height rises - Even better is that its snowing here in Oslo.. UKMO looking worlds away from the GFS however, even better?

Jaw dropping negative NAO here. Simply incredible chart, cool days and frosty nights, and whats that lurking to drop down to the north...

For what its worth, UKMO D7 back the ECM with a more amplified US pattern than the GFS - would expect the GFS to find this solution over the next few runs.

Yep, and a freaky-large ridge over the near continent forming, the trend is our friend here especially for developments later into November. Though since my move to Oslo I might not be waiting quite so long..

As wonderful as it is seeing precipitation charts for next weekend and the prospect of a few snow showers or even a trough, a quick reminder of what was showing for today, this time last week should be noted, to what is actually verifying. Take a look, given the fantastic inputs from the more knowledgable on here of the background signals, we stand our best shot at something to salvage this tease of a winter within the next few weeks... I look forward to comparing next Mondays output to what is currently progged by the models

And so our Scandi high wheel of fortune spins to deliver at day 10 - Agree with what NS is saying, a little help from the MJO with an increasingly better upstream picture may eventually land us a bullseye...

UKMO @168 - Also a corker, low off the NW corner of spain, further east than the ECM so less chance of it swinging down to the azores a la ECM at 192, thus propping up our high.

Quick question to anyone, what is the 'GFS Legacy' option on the GEFS suite drop down bar? Is it the ENS of the para? cheers

GEFS 06z mean is far better than the 00z suite, and the control looking much more ECMesque with regards to our second shot at greenland height rises.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but could our problems with the ECM actually start as early as T72/96hrs, with the placement of the 'supporting' low in the mid atlantic. Comparing the big three, ECM has the deepest and furtherest west of the lot, thus backing up what @Singularity proposed earlier about the 'over amplification' of the ECM, deeper low in a more S/SW position = more phasing with energy of the low running up greenland, and less so with the descending scandinavian low pressure - just a thought.

Even with 51 members, EC is going pedal to the metal with blocked Atlantic at 240 compared to the GFS.