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dave48

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Everything posted by dave48

  1. dave48
    Have been told elsewhere that this is likely just scud.
  2. dave48
    Possible oxford tornado, pictures in photography section, would be interested to hear opinions!
  3. dave48
    Captured these shots today south of Oxford. Possible tornado? I have edited them to improve the contrast. Had a great chase but it was always difficult to keep up with the storms and they quickly out ran me.
  4. dave48
    Wow, had a great chase today near Oxford, managed to capture a large funnel, possible tornado, pics to come in a new thread shortly. Some amazing storms for sure.
  5. dave48
    To add to Panayiotis' analysis, ECMWF with the euro4, a touch east. Tomorrow holds a lot of potential, potential for some strong or even severe storms.
  6. dave48
    Yes, looking very solid, moving quickly too. I wonder how long it has in it.
  7. dave48
    Anyone got recommendations for good storm watching spots in the south east, east sussex/kent? Looking for a good view over the channel. Not likely to be much use this evening but for future reference. Any suggestions appreciated.
  8. dave48
    'Areas of rain, locally thundery, will develop across the warning area during Thursday afternoon, evening and overnight. This will be heavy at times and may lead to some localised disruption. Lightning will be an additional hazard, especially across areas south of Birmingham. Heavy rain may lead to localised rainfall accumulations of 20-30 mm in 1-2 hours, with some places perhaps seeing 40-60 mm in 3-6 hours. This may cause some travel disruption during rush hour this evening. The threat of heavy rain will clear eastwards later in the night, clearing western parts of the warning area by around midnight.' Don't recall the met office giving such a specific mention for lightning frequency before.
  9. dave48
    In the absence of any other specific forecasts for the UK yesterday, and with estofex giving a no risk area, you played that very well, a superb forecast on a day with just about as much uncertainty as you can find.
  10. dave48
    Forecast from the estofex team: http://estofex.org/ Tomorrow is certainly going to be a very interesting day. *if* any cells can route themselves in the boundary layer, conditions certainly very favourable indeed.
  11. dave48
    One rumble! This stuff is going up, ...and down... very quickly. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day.
  12. dave48
    Have to say I am surprised there isn't much interest in this too. This looks a very nice set up indeed, lots of potential from tomorrow onwards. (even a very small chance for today up in the north!)
  13. dave48
    Can't recall a plume with 850 temps this high not providing some solid storms. GFS goes for 20 degrees at 850 hpa which is quite a high figure in the SE. A reasonable chance for many later in the week. These things are always very hit and miss but I would be surprised if this didn't deliver. Hopefully quite widespread.
  14. dave48
    That's a great shot. Great to see people enjoying some storms. Tomorrow looks good, all the models are agreeing on a few spots, including the south east for some thunderstorms. Euro4 is in agreement too, and that model has been very conservative over the last few days...certainly a good sign.
  15. dave48
    Yeah that was the one, cheers for that!
  16. dave48
    Not strictly 'convective discussion' I know, but I am hoping someone in here might have the answer. I was thinking about a video that someone posted on here a little while back. It was of a particularly intense storm with a lot of lightning, approaching what I think was a trailer park, somewhere in the states. If this jogs anyones memory, it would be great to get a link to the video, or even back to the thread page where this was discussed, I seem to remember a few good videos were posted. I am wondering if it is buried deep in an old convective discussion. Any help appreciated!
  17. dave48
    Heavy showers this afternoon in West Wiltshire, one rumble of thunder.
  18. dave48
    I was indeed! Great spot, you can see lightning from a pretty serious distance up there.
  19. dave48
    I still use a standard Canon camera I bought in 2008! It can do long exposures and all the ISO stuff and I have played around with it before with my tripod and got some lightning shots but I find it is so rare we get the great nighttime storms that when they do come around I just try and enjoy them and grab some video and take a few stills from that. You are right though, long exposure photographs get you the pro pics, maybe something I will try if we are lucky enough to get another plume this summer! I certainly need to upgrade to a better camera though, something that can take 1080pHD video for a start... Am moving to Godalming in August funnily enough so fingers crossed we get a good late summer storm!
  20. dave48
    Not a great photographer but always like to get some video of good storms, a few grabs below from what was most likely the best storm I have ever seen. Visiting family in West Wiltshire and headed up to a local highpoint and spend a few hours up there enjoying the lightning. At the peak, lightning being almost constant. The storm was fairly discrete and it was great watching it drift north with the full moon finally coming out. Some fantastic structure visible as the lightning illuminated the storm. I have seen photos by others showing a wall cloud on the storm too.
  21. dave48
    Same! Great viewing spot.
  22. dave48
    Have just returned from 3 hours of pretty much solid thunder and lightning, by far the best thunderstorm I have ever seen. Am visiting family in Wiltshire so was viewing the western storm. Lightning at 50 + strikes a minute for well over an hour. Thousands of strikes caught on video. Enjoy it up north!
  23. dave48
    Towering cumulus here, high based, looks ready to go!
  24. dave48
    Alt Cas, towering altocumulus here now. Edit: Currently in west Wiltshire.
  25. dave48
    Visiting family in Wiltshire at the mo, similar skies, lots of altocumulus here, not towering cas yet though.
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