Fwoggie

I might be missing something, but having checked out all those images, T&C doesn't seem too bad at all considering it just got hit by a cat 4. Damage seems restricted to a fair bit of flooding and superficial damage to buildings - the sort of thing I'd expect in a cat 1 not a 4. I'd expect some weaker buildings to be flattened in a cat 4.

It hasn't petered out at all - but it has gone outside of NHC's geographical remit and is now subtropical. If you'd like to track it, you can find information at http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn.pl...wbc.hsf.at1.txt - I would expect that wunderground.com will also stop covering it if it hasn't already done so. and yeah, we're gonna get a bit windy and rainy. First storm of Autumn I guess.

He went to the Museum & Art Gallery of the Northern Territory in Darwin, NT, Australia. They play it in a darkened room, it's quite something. Check out wikipedia's entry for Cyclone Tracy. It was a heck of a storm; particularly tiny yet viciously strong - the debate is out as to whether it was a high cat 4 or low cat 5. Either way, total laminate floor for it to hit xmas eve night of all days - many residents were in xmas mood, not paying attention to the weather and didn't see it coming. It's notorious in Australia's identity and for sure has to be one of the most well known cyclones/typhoons/hurricanes that has ever happened.

I'm trying to find diameter data for Gustav, currently failing. Side note: The remnants of Hanna look like they're going to give you a good chance of breaking your 2008 gust record :-)

Winds gusting to storm force now in T&C's. Some amateur observers on other boards are speculating about a slight wobble to NW. If it does, it'll skim Cuba rather than hit it, and that would mean it would keep its intensification as it heads NW into the GOM... :lol:

The centre of it is 205 miles SW of New York (or as makes no difference). It looks like they're going to get the outer rain bands any time now. I would be surprised if the tennis restarts. I suspect that's probably it for the day now.

Er, they're playing right now, Murray is 2 sets up :lol:

Currently looks like skimming W Ireland lunchtime our time Wed, through that night into Thursday for N Scotland. NHC currently suggests 45 knots sustained, 55 knots gusting. Equivalents in real money are 51mph sustained, 63mph gusts. Not that big a deal for N Scotland, they get that sort of thing in winter storms. All it means is that the rain will be a bit warmer hopefully. :lol:

MM. The joys of personal pride. Assuming Ike does make a bee line for NO, it will depend on how strong it is as to how many leave again. Hopefully very few will point to Nagin crying wolf and ignore it. When Nagin called it the mother of all storms it looked like it would be. It was forecast to be a high cat 4 low cat 5, but crucially forecast with storm surges of 22 feet at that moment in time. As a reminder, the highest storm surge recorded during Katrina was 11.5 feet in the NO region. Biloxi got 14 foot - probably due to being in the NE quadrant of NO at landfall though I couldn't say for sure. Winds in a cat 4 storm are serious indeed. Just ask the Far North Queenslanders when Larry arrived at high cat 4/low cat 5. It pretty much flattened billions of dollars of sugar cane and banana plantations and destroyed 90% of Innisfail - a town of 12,000 people. However, a storm surge is far more serious. Katrina demonstrates that.

BTW, NHC show the 5 day extended forecast threat zone as covering N Ireland and all of Scotland

Dunno. Depends what you define as a hit I guess.

The thought had crossed my mind. I'd imagine it's also crossed the minds of Nagin (NO Mayor) too...

Latest NHC shows average path threading the needle between Cuba and the Keys and heading NW in the general direction of New Orleans. On the one hand, > 3 day predictions are notoriously unreliable. On the other hand, NHC has been impressive this year with > 3 day predictions. If I was in the N Gulf of Mexico, I'd be getting a) worried depressed. Particularly given that strengthening is expected late day 3 onwards, possibly rapid. If the ridge around Florida holds, it'll keep the hurricane going more Westerly, which would at least spare New Orleans and the 150 miles each side of it. Official forecasts suggest that ridge will weaken, hence the trend to a NW direction. Here's hoping they're off, for the sake of the New Orleanians. I imagine the MS, LA, AL and TX governors must be starting to get a bit twitchy.

The worst case scenario would be a cat 5 hit on FL, then passing back out into the GOM... Incidentally, NASA don't seem that bothered about Ike; Hanna is considered to be out of the way so they've decided to park Atlantis on the launch pad. Right now they're about 2/3 of the way there along the road the launch pad gets driven along. 2 hours left before arrival at the launch tower. To yank it back in would take 6 hours. Seems like a very odd decision to me but hey. All they were worried about was Hanna... Atlantis is scheduled to launch on 8th Oct for the last servicing trip to Hubble; 34 days from now.

Incredible isn't it... 45 knots in 6 hours by my reckoning. Not a record, but extremely unusual to intensify that bloody quickly. Thank god I ain't in Florida. If I was, I'd be waking up in about 5-8 hours time from now and start flapping big time.

Official NHC has it doing a snake impression, the centre of the track lays it 250m off the coast of the Keys in 5 days time as a low strength cat 3. Models vary a fair bit; we'll have to wait and see how it shapes up by the end of the weekend.

Ike has the potential to make a bit of history. No hurricane formed in September since records began in 1851 (to 2006 at least) at the latitude Ike is at has ever managed to get as far as Cuba before settling into the standard curve Northwards. The closest was a hurricane in 1938 that skimmed the North coast of the Bahamas before eventually dying out over Ottawa's area. Right now, almost all models show it making a direct beeline for either the South of the Bahamas or Cuba. Cuba really can't handle another major storm at this time.

St Bernards Parish's levee has gone too. I don't know how critical that is. Correction it hasn't gone yet, it's seats of the pants desperation to shore it up, quote from latest news:- n East Bank levee is being topped due to rising waters in the aftermath of Gustav. An urgent plea is going out to all residents in the area to leave now! The levee is near the St. Bernard Parish line and is a private levee (not part of the federal levee system) known as the Caernarvon Diversion Levee. An all out effort is underway to sandbag and prevent massive flooding. The levee overtopping was reported at approximately 3:15pm and at that time was just beginning to top over. However, there is concern that this could be a losing battle. It's believed there are a number of people who stayed in their homes in Braithwaite to ride out Gustav...and Parish President Billy Nungesser is urging them to leave immediately. The Plaquemines Parish Sheriff's Department is going door to door to assist in any needed rescues. This levee protects the Braithwaite area. St. Bernard Parish Sheriff Jack Stephens is providing 2,000 sandbags to assist Plaquemines Parish. All available parish workers are joining Parish President Billy Nungesser to fortify the levee with these sandbags and more sandbags that Plaquemines Parish had stockpiled on the East bank in preparation for Gustav. Help is also coming from Orleans Parish-Sheriff Gusman is sending a number of trustees to help in the flood fighting Approximately 125 to 200 homes could be affected in the Braithwaite area. *Note: This levee was heavily damaged by Hurricane Katrina. Earlier this year, Parish workers rebuilt the levee and raised it to approximately 8 feet. This was done by the Parish because no federal dollars were forthcoming to fix the levee. Residents in the area took about ten feet of water in their homes during Katrina.

Baton Rouge radio is reporting that Placaman (think I spelt that right) parish just lost its levee. That's not a critical levee though for the main city, this levee is related to the mississippi river apparently. Don't know any more, but the radio isn't overly excited about it.

Initial thoughts. 1) Only 1 model forecasts Ike to take any kind of Poleward turn. This is primarily because there's a sizeable subtropical ridge forming that it's South of which I imagine will keep it down. 2) Hurricanes churn up seas badly and bring up cooler water from lower depths. It looks like it'll go through or close to the area that Hanna currently occupies. This water will be cooler and cool water as we know doesn't aid intensification much. 3) Only an outside chance of it getting to Cat 2 by Bermuda. 4) Wind shear is low at present. Dunno about further along its path.

Lemme see if I can find the cold eddy stuff and the wind shear discussions. Could be hard, will give it a crack. A link for readers in general: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/0...;feed=worldnews. The article itself is not what I'm interested in though, it's that chilling picture provided by AFP. It sums up just how close it was this time. As a side note (and more for the thread provided for it), just to point out - depression 9 - soon to be TS Ike is forecast to intensify and thread the needle between the Keys and Cuba. Obviously that's REALLY bad. Found it - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...p;tstamp=200808 :-)

He might look a little stupid, but he shouldn't. At the time when he gave that (probably now infamous) press conference, NHC - amongst other professional meterological sources - were advising that he was looking at about 26 foot of storm surge and a high cat 4 low cat 5. He had to make a call based on the best info to him at the time. It would be inadvisable to dismiss such wind speeds and don't think I'm not - one only has to look at the damage caused by the likes of Wilma and Andrew in the US and Larry or Tracy in Australia for example but it was the storm surge that would have convinced him. The highest recorded storm surge during Katrina depending on which historical source you read varies between 11.5 feet and 14 feet. There is absolutely no way in hell the current levee system would have handled 26 feet of surge. An article in the NY Times in the aftermath of Katrina - http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/29/national...al/29flood.html - indicated that to build the levees up to cat 5 capability would cost in the region of $32 billion at absolute minimum. Given the population of NO is supposedly 380,000, that is a phenomenally high price to pay for that size population. However, cities around the world that are at risk - including London - will have to start weighing this up. It's one thing to abandon New Orleans, it is another to abandon London. No in depth study of the cost of a new Thames Barrier has been done but it is agreed that it is required, soon, due to rising sea levels. The general figure being bandied about for a suitable barrier and upgrades to associated flood defences to protect London is estimated at a cool £20 billion, or if you like 2 London Olympics. Nagin will probably be proud of the fact that he made the call, got it wrong but made the right call anyway. It doesn't make up for him dropping the ball for Katrina mind, but it's better than nothing.

I believe Gustav didn't restrengthen because: 1) Hannah was a bit close and weakened it slightly. 2) It passed directly over a colder part of the ocean - a cooling eddy that spun off the loop current early July. 3) Wind shear definitely had an effect, as identified in discussion available from NHC earlier. However. I don't understand fully the meterological science surrounding the dry air. I get the concept, but don't get it enough in depth to give an opinion on that.

Not continuous, but podcasts are available via www.nhc.noaa.gov. Listen also to local non stop coverage on commercial radio at www.1300espn.com.

Someone just asked Louisiana radio if Gustav was going to do a U turn and go back and hit Cuba again :o