Rob K

The high-res chart on TWO for south UK actually shows one 38C gridpoint on Sunday, probably around Charlwood. If that verified it would be one of the five hottest days ever recorded (and mean that 5 of the 6 hottest days ever in the UK would have happened since 2019!)

I was just thinking it looks less robust and further east...?

Indeed, the 850mb ensemble doesn't look that different from the last set but the 2m temps are hugely colder (for Hampshire)

You're right on closer inspection. I was put off by the weak 120hr UKM chart.

Not sure - I think the GEM looks rather similar to the UKMO so it might go the same way and sink the block quickly. GFS mean and control look great though.

From 24 hours ago the trend is colder, but from 12 or 6 hours ago the trend is milder. The 18Z ensemble last night was really good for continued cold and the 0Z was also pretty good but the 6Z is a definite wobble back to the milder side. All very finely balanced though and so much scatter - I mean, this coming Saturday could have a max of -2C or +12C here, let alone what happens next week.

Pssst.... take a look at P5 on the GEFS at around 348-360 hours. I challenge you to draw a better winter chart.

It looks like there is now only one day that has failed to reach 15C, never mind 14C: January 8 with a high of 14.9 in 1988.

909mb? Surely that was a bit of an exaggeration. This article reckons it was between 912 and 915 at the lowest. Error - Cookies Turned Off RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

I live quite near Basingstoke and we have done very well in this area over the past 12 years or so. After a long fairly snowless drought in the 1990s and 2000s we got very late and early snowfalls in 2008 (April and October), then we got a couple of decent falls just before Christmas 2009, then that mammoth fall in January 2010. Nov/Dec 2010 were a bit of a letdown compared to what much of the rest of the country got, but we also got a decent amount in March 2013, and again from the 2018 BTFE parts 1 and 2. Then on Feb 1st we got about 12cm of heavy wet snow here but over in Basingstoke it was closer to 15-20cm, a proper winter wonderland. And then three weeks later I was sitting in a pub garden having lunch in a T-shirt. What a crazy month Feb 2019 was!

Someone posted a pic of the weather station as it is today on TWO. Lots of bare earth nearby. Personally I think we should call it a tie with 2003 on 38.1C and bin Gravesend and Brogdale! And not just because I chose 38.1C in the comp....

Met Office tweet acknowledges the 38.7C subject to validation.

Well there is an official manual site called Cambridge Botanic Gardens on the Met Office station list, so unless there are two weather stations there it looks like it is. It also has the Met Office logo on the station details tab, like Brogdale does. Brogdale is also showing the 38.4C on that site: https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/201907263foef47xtye6ucrdyyb96sccar

Maybe a late plot twist:the manual Cambridge Botanic Gardens site appears to be showing a max of 38.7C. https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/?site_id=27484233

Surprised that yesterday didn't rank higher. The extent of the 35C+ temperatures across the country was amazing.