Rob K
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Rob K replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The high-res chart on TWO for south UK actually shows one 38C gridpoint on Sunday, probably around Charlwood. If that verified it would be one of the five hottest days ever recorded (and mean that 5 of the 6 hottest days ever in the UK would have happened since 2019!) -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I was just thinking it looks less robust and further east...? -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, the 850mb ensemble doesn't look that different from the last set but the 2m temps are hugely colder (for Hampshire) -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You're right on closer inspection. I was put off by the weak 120hr UKM chart. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not sure - I think the GEM looks rather similar to the UKMO so it might go the same way and sink the block quickly. GFS mean and control look great though. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
From 24 hours ago the trend is colder, but from 12 or 6 hours ago the trend is milder. The 18Z ensemble last night was really good for continued cold and the 0Z was also pretty good but the 6Z is a definite wobble back to the milder side. All very finely balanced though and so much scatter - I mean, this coming Saturday could have a max of -2C or +12C here, let alone what happens next week. -
Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pssst.... take a look at P5 on the GEFS at around 348-360 hours. I challenge you to draw a better winter chart. -
It looks like there is now only one day that has failed to reach 15C, never mind 14C: January 8 with a high of 14.9 in 1988.
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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat
Rob K replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
909mb? Surely that was a bit of an exaggeration. This article reckons it was between 912 and 915 at the lowest. Error - Cookies Turned Off RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM -
I live quite near Basingstoke and we have done very well in this area over the past 12 years or so. After a long fairly snowless drought in the 1990s and 2000s we got very late and early snowfalls in 2008 (April and October), then we got a couple of decent falls just before Christmas 2009, then that mammoth fall in January 2010. Nov/Dec 2010 were a bit of a letdown compared to what much of the rest of the country got, but we also got a decent amount in March 2013, and again from the 2018 BTFE parts 1 and 2. Then on Feb 1st we got about 12cm of heavy wet snow here but over in Basingstoke it was closer to 15-20cm, a proper winter wonderland. And then three weeks later I was sitting in a pub garden having lunch in a T-shirt. What a crazy month Feb 2019 was!
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Hot week - guess the temperature competition
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Someone posted a pic of the weather station as it is today on TWO. Lots of bare earth nearby. Personally I think we should call it a tie with 2003 on 38.1C and bin Gravesend and Brogdale! And not just because I chose 38.1C in the comp.... -
Well there is an official manual site called Cambridge Botanic Gardens on the Met Office station list, so unless there are two weather stations there it looks like it is. It also has the Met Office logo on the station details tab, like Brogdale does. Brogdale is also showing the 38.4C on that site: https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/observations/details/201907263foef47xtye6ucrdyyb96sccar
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Surprised that yesterday didn't rank higher. The extent of the 35C+ temperatures across the country was amazing.
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Hot week - guess the temperature competition
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I did flag up this possibility yesterday, as the manual station was right in the prime spot. -
Hot week - guess the temperature competition
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Northolt reading came in ages ago, max was 37.6C. As for Brogdale, word is that it's still to be checked. There was a rumour that it was 38.4C but I think that was a myth! -
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
Rob K replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
On 10 Aug 2003 there was a cold front coming down from the northwest. There were severe storms in northern parts, Carlton-in-Cleveland rings a bell I think. The SE was the last part of the country to hang on to the heat. -
Hot week - guess the temperature competition
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looks like I might have been stitched up by Brogdale and its dodgy hedge! -
Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
Rob K replied to SunnyDazee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It's not really a coincidence - the hottest air is always going to be the most unstable, and we had 23-24C 850s coming up from the south, which of course triggered convective cloud. I think cloud will usually be the limiting factor in such a set-up. -
Hot week - guess the temperature competition
Rob K replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'll take 38.1C in Cambridge, anyway.