Pembroke Dangler

Snowing heavily big 50p flakes here settling on cars and grass

Bank one last horah for a walloping even if the snow melts by midday I’d take it after this winter that promised so much and delivered so little

Lovely 6Z run from day 9 onwards but we are relying on a shortwave being ejected east from the parent low in the Atlantic to trigger the height rise to our west at 210 which is plausible but lots that could go wrong with this evolution much like this weeks low which headed north and splits.

Wow well since this morning there have been about 10 pages of reading and I was thinking there must be a beast coming or a long fetch cross polar northerly but no it’s another garden path job and we are looking for some wedges here and there to salvage a cold weekend. Stroll on spring I’m missing my Golf and cycling and the ecm 216 looks like some warm air wafting up from Spain let’s have it if we can’t have snow and ice.

I’ll believe it when I see it but this has Swansea and some of the south in with a shout latest met office take on things

TEITS My eyebrow was raised this morning with the ecm showing a big correction south but my other eyebrow is raised looking at the aprege, could be a south of the M4 affair come tomorrow’s 00z and then Channel Islands by the 00z Tuesday.

Ironic that the only dry slot is right over Swansea and Gower couldn’t make it up that good old snow force field (Beacons) in full force lol

E17boy ideally we want the system to remain shallow until it reaches the North Sea and then deepen to wrap the cold around on its western flank keeping the south in the cold air with a rain to Snow event as there’s no cold air in place before the system arrives. Like the GFS 6z shows around the 160 hours timeframe.

bluearmy Thanks for that feels like the middle of January system a bit, could miss to the south altogether and head into France at this rate

bluearmy Is that the ecm 6z control further south?

It then transitions to a decent northerly but as you say JFF would be great if that’s how it happens.

Just a test for future reference thanks seems fine to me

been keeping an eye on this trough moving south east out of NI I wonder if it can keep intensity for tonight could head our way fingers crossed

I spy with my little eye a scandi high

I think this is the mean so will be some runs which will bring the front further north and some further south and hopefully we will be stuck in the middle with snow