Barometer Obama

Initial burst here in Locks Heath of heavy sleet with thunder and lightning to boot.

I can there is no turning you! But you are correct in that you must never get excited about a snow event until it is virtually upon you. Just watch the BBC forecast on the morning of the Jan 2010 event, they got the snow but the areas worst hit weren't predicted until it was pretty much happening...

Don't give up yet. The models all have the low on a slightly different track, yes it may go Pete Tong but it is too early to write it off.

The ukmo is sticking to pretty good for us. Even somewhere between the two would probably work. I just hope the gfs is heading in the wrong direction

the worry is the gfs and Ecm are pushing it further west, that trend needs to change.

you'll be fine. Outside lane and stand on the accelerator with hazard lights on.

Not the best of set ups for south coast, very different to the awesome event Jan 2010. The wind that supplies the fuel is the very thing that will hurry it through. Blink and we may miss it. Still, subtle changes could make a significant difference.

Congrats to Channel Islands. Got to say I'm gutted for S coast, this would have been incredible if the low had come through the channel rather than the Loire valley. Conditions in Locks Heath perfect for snow, DP -7, air temp -2! Bit of light snow all morning, but nothing exciting. People of Guernsey & Jersey send us your pics...

Blimey it looks tight. Close but no cigar?! Off to bed and dreaming of waking to find the track of the low 100 miles further north, it could happen... BO

DP -2, AT 1. Wind NNW, Raining...

Hi mate, I'm on a late. It is not raining in Locks Heath yet. DP -2, air temp 1, wind straight out of the north

I'm not an expert, but I've endured previous snow events and more commonly near misses. The danger for us on the coast comes from the fact that the wind in the middle part of the day is from the South, it will veer more easterly in the afternoon. Looking on the GFS the 528 thickness line is actually slightly inland, this is another negative for snow. As we get close to the event I would suggest going on weatherunderground and watching to see signs of the dew points rising in the west. And of course look on this forum, to follow progress. Hopefully by this evening the actual track will be pretty accurate and will know where is likely to get smothered! Anyone who says it WILL snow or it WON't SNOW for us on the coast is guessing, it will be very much a fingers crossed job. Next week looks very exciting if things don't quite go peoples way tomorrow.

I agree, I don't think the BBCs forecast of earlier today was massively out. I'm certain that by morning Dorset will have more to show than Hants.

Is it just me, or isn't Dorest going to get the heavier stuff? Looking at a few radar images, and while I admit its a little further east, so far than predicted the heavy band to the N of Ox is heading for Dorset not Hants. Stopped here for the moment.

Holding at freezing here. Still light snow too.