JamesL
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
JamesL replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So with low pressures historically moving south over time, what are people’s thoughts here? A slightly different scenario to last time as cold arctic air isn’t entrenched over the uk as we saw the snow slip into France etc Any chance here or am I straw clutching? -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
JamesL replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
4th morning on the trot here with falling settling snow at a modest 150m ASL in the Cynon Valley Last winter 21/22 we saw a big fat ZERO of snow days IMG_0740.MOV IMG_0742.MOV -
Well as expected a great fall overnight. Best since TBFTE in 2018 here. We’ve been in the perfect place here near Aberdare under the brighter returns most of the night. I’m guessing 5-7 cms but I’ll get out with a tape once out of bed. looks like heavier stuff arriving this afternoon too A great last hurrah by winter 2022/23 Great to see Barry enjoying this too. Must be a first since 2018?
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
JamesL replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s a lot of falling snow for SE Wales over around 24 hours. Heads of the valley looks a prime sweet spot -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
JamesL replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m really liking these charts for the SE Wales valleys for tomorrow. I think areas above 150m could well have 12 hours of snow according to the 0Z GFS Had a dusting on the hills around me here today and snow here but no settling. It will Potentially be our last snow for this season tomorrow unless the chopping and changing continues into the weekend and we get another injection of cold from the N/NW as the shortwaves exit -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
JamesL replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Was it 2013? -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
JamesL replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Looks frigid here in the valleys next week I think many in the south will be very disappointed. Not even a particularly cold spell for early March. Temps haven’t been far off that this week here with more frosts. It’s all very confusing with all this talk of cold, snow and record minima. I think it’s going to be a NE England and Scotland spell with the rest getting the left over dross -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
JamesL replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like the ECM sniffed out the more northerly approach of the low last eve. And now sadly the UKMO has also sniffed it out. As always in these cases betting against the 2 Euros over the American model is a dangerous move cold for 2-3 days before a messy breakdown from the SW is pretty much what we will have by the looks of it let’s move on and look for spring. Personally it was all to good 24-48 hours ago One could argue that things may well correct south but it’s a worrying trend this morning I think by the 00’s tonight we will know our fate -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
JamesL replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Errrm we had snow drifts up the the roofs and cars buried in the St David’s day blizzard in 2018. So unless you’re younger than 5 -
Think this will be the last of the snow here today. The area of instability is moving away and the shower activity vanishing with it slowly but surely behind it. Fun whilst it lasted and nice to see the forecast spot on for here near Aberdare A perfect time to get out into the hills and grab some pics esp tomorrow with the sun out Zoomed in and out. We hit this one perfectly