Probably. On the other hand a warming of 0.5 C should manifest itself globally to the extent that is the average UK temp should be now 10C not 9.5C, as it was during1960-1990 . In these cases an actual CET of 9.2 would be a definite outlier. Quite a few standard deviations below average - the same likelihood as a 8.7 between 1960-1990. most of the warming last year was in Jan and Feb, May was another outlier - the three of them making up most of the 0.5 per month anomaly on average. Since Jan and Feb are already cold, a hot summer would be needed to compensate this year. That said we often seem to have hot summers after cold winters ( I say, anecdotally). I understand there were certain weather patterns this year, but so too are there weather patterns last year ( the damned Atlantic). Is that predicted in GW, that the Atlantic takes over in Winter, in general, but not always?