Erl Happ

How is it that all that very cold air can sit up there on top of the warm air. Surely it has to be related to low density and lack of backup in the mesosphere. It's hanging back due to lack of reinforcements. Best comparison I can see is with 1987, also shortly after solar minimum. See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...ALL_NH_1987.gif But there is a similar pattern in the La Nina years 1985, 2004 and 2006. In the case of 1987 it led straight into the El Nino of 1988.

Reply at http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1472929

Blast from the Past Re the Hale Cycle Winter. Thanks for your comment that I am nicely describing a Hale Cycle winter. I offer this: Leif Svalgaard "there is a 22-year cycle in geomagnetic storms [and we know why] such that they are stronger from the maximum of even cycles to the maximum of odd cycles and weaker from the maximum of odd cycles to the maximum of even cycles. So the years ahead [until 2013] will see weaker storms [or rather the storms will have less effect]," And from Winston Churchill "Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened." The connection between the solar wind and tropospheric weather is I suggest via its effect on the intensity of UV light that drives temperature in the interaction zone between the stratosphere and the troposphere where there is sufficient ozone to provoke a response. The high pressure cells that constitute the poleward arm of the Hadley cell are such a place. The solar wind blows, the upper atmosphere (ionosphere) is driven equator-wards by electromagnetic forces as the stronger magnetic field lines at lower latitudes produce greater uplift. The ions are vertically well spread some being present in the stratosphere during daylight hours. Its all pretty tenuous up there (troposphere has 75% of the total) and the neutrals are carried along with the particles with unbalanced electrical charges by electromagnetic forces. I think that that is what a cooling equatorial stratosphere in strict conjunction with a warming Arctic stratosphere tells us. When the solar wind is less active there is less equatorial warming and a weaker polar vortex. Both of these add up to more ozone in the stratosphere, the first because of less water rising into the equatorial stratosphere and the second due to less erosive nitrogen descending from the mesosphere. So, the atmosphere becomes more reactive to the solar wind influence that changes the flux of UV light. But, I am no meteorologist and am certainly not at all familiar with the European situation, or the northern Hemisphere for that matter so I would really appreciate if you could fill in the details of what a Hale Cycle winter looks like in the big picture and perhaps relate it to Algeria or the Mediterranean which is closer to what I am familiar with in the south west of Western Australia. Background: See:http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081215184317.htm "The thermosphere begins at about 60 miles above Earth and extends to about 300 miles in altitude. The thermosphere gas is known to expand and contract on a 27-day solar rotation period due to changes in extreme UV radiation, said Thayer. The new findings indicate the thermosphere also has periodic oscillations occur at four-to-five days, six-to-seven days and nine-to-11 days caused by the violent effect of the high-speed soar winds interacting with Earth and transferring energy through auroras and enhanced electric currents." At:http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/39356/title/Solar_wind_pushes_atmospheric_breathing "The nine-day fluctuation in atmospheric density at high altitude "was a surprising finding" that wasn't correlated with any variation in solar UV flux, says Thayer. Instead, he and his colleagues found, the short-term cycle matched variations in the speed of the solar wind striking the top of Earth's atmosphere. High-speed blasts of solar wind originate from holes in the sun's outer atmosphere, or corona, that are located at low solar latitudes, says Thayer. When those faster-than-average particles strike the atmosphere, the air heats up and expands to higher altitudes. As the satellites orbiting at those altitudes suddenly encounter thicker air, they slow down. Because the sun rotates once every 27 days and sported three low-latitude coronal holes for most of 2005, surges in solar wind swept by Earth, on average, every nine days. The variations in the speed of solar wind noted by Thayer and his team also affected the chemistry of Earth's upper atmosphere, says Geoff Crowley, an atmospheric physicist with Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates in San Antonio. Using data gathered by a satellite launched in late 2001, Crowley and his colleagues saw a nine-day cycle in the concentrations of monatomic oxygen (O) and diatomic nitrogen (N2) in the upper atmosphere, created by chemical reactions the barrage of high-energy particles triggered. "This [cycle] was completely unexpected," he reported at the meeting."

Gray Wolf In my view you are on pretty firm ground. The geomagnetic indices that reflect the solar wind also reflect the incidence of energetic particle precipitation events that produce nitrogen compounds in the mesosphere that are carried down into the polar stratosphere where they erode ozone. The ozone content of the stratosphere and upper troposphere drives temperature in the ozone rich areas and the mid latitude high pressure cells are ozone rich. For this reason 200hPa temperature in these regions varies independently of surface temperature. This directly affects vorticity and surface wind strength together with ice cloud cover and has knock on effects in terms of the strength of the Hadley circulation and the location of the jet streams. There is evidence in the recent cooling of the equatorial stratosphere conjunctional with warming of the Arctic stratosphere that the solar wind is capable of shifting the atmosphere and thereby changing the density of the optical path that the suns rays must traverse to reach the surface. I can not think of any other way that the equatorial stratosphere is forced to cool as the mid latitude and polar stratosphere warms. What do you think?

Very useful observation chionomaniac. There is amplified evaporation occurring from the tropical ocean driving the uplift of water into the equatorial stratosphere which has cooled as the Arctic stratosphere has warmed. This represents a strong amplification of the Hadley cell. Rising air at the equator is balanced by descending air in those subtropical high pressure cells. Descent via the Arctic Vortex is prevented by the increase in stratospheric temperature. The air has to descend somewhere. I wonder what is happening in Antarctica? My guess is a cold spell. The amplification of the Hadley cell should push the subtropical high pressure cells away from the Equator opening up a wider cloud free zone over the tropics. An increase in upper troposphere temperature tends to remove ice cloud and that increase in upper troposphere temperature tends to happen between the equator and 65°N as the Arctic warms. What this adds up to is strong cloud loss and a warming tropical ocean. A bit more of this and we might have an El Nino on our hands. Seems to me that the Arctic is loaded with ozone and any further solar activity will tend to keep it warm. If that is the case you may not see the anticipated cool weather. Looking at the intensity of this event and the duration of the warming in the Arctic together with the depth to which the warming has occurred this is the sort of very special occurrence that might be expected to occur only in the midst of a protracted solar minimum. Sorry Glacier Point. I see that I should have been congratulating you on your observation re the high pressure cells.

Re drop in temperature 25°N to 25° in the stratosphere accompanying the increase in temperature 65° to 90°N. I have changed my mind. This fall in the temperature of the tropical stratosphere is not due to the solar wind shifting the atmosphere and piling it up in the tropics. The fall in temperature in the tropical stratosphere is due to a marked increase in 200hPa temperature in the tropics, a decay of ice cloud coverage yielding a marked increase in sunlight reaching the surface and therefore evaporation. This is swiftly transported into the tropical stratosphere and it takes out the ozone because ozone is highly soluble. I have been looking back at 2006 when a marked SSW occurred at this time. If one looks at the data at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...ure/index.shtml it is apparent that stratospheric temperature in the tropics depends upon the seasonal change in sea surface temperatures in the tropics. Temperature in the stratosphere always takes a marked dip November to March (especially noticeable between 5 and 10hPa) when sea surface temperature in the tropics is rising strongly and the stratospheric warming over the Arctic take place. This is also the time of the year when 200hPa temperature between 30°N and 30°S reaches one of its two seasonal maxima. The other is in August September. The latter I think is driven by the reaction of OLR with ozone and the general warming of the atmosphere associated with the seasonal warming of the land masses of the northern hemisphere. This is the time of minimum global cloud cover and a seasonal low in tropical sea surface temperature. So evaporation will be low too tending to allow stratosphere temperature to rise. The increase in 200hPa temperature in the tropics in November to March is driven by the same thing that drives the stratospheric warming, the sun. It is the timing of the temperature increase that implicates the solar wind. It is the 5-8 day lag at 30hPa. How do we know it starts in the upper stratosphere and propagates downwards? Because that's the way the temperature increase occurs. The lower down we look the more the response is delayed and the longer the temperature change persists. Form follows function. 200hPa temperature between 30°N and 30°S is strongly correlated with sea surface temperature in the tropics. This is the ENSO driver. At the time when global cloud cover is strongest, at the start of the year the sun has the power to evaporate the cloud. Sea surface temperature between 20N and 20S is on the rise with an increase of 0.265° Jan 2009 over Jan 2008. Does this make sense? I am not a meteorologist so the synoptics of what is happening in the Arctic and the blockings that you speak of are a mystery to me. However, the increase in 200 hPa temperature will weaken the mid latitude high pressure cells and accentuate the Arctic downdraft. At the same time the trades will weaken. I expect you in the Northern Hemisphere are in for a chilly time. But summer should bring a warmer tropical ocean. The spring transition should be swift. This is a big call. Hope it's right. But just before you call me wrong have a look at what is happening to global 200hPa temperature at:http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps What is it that has caused global 2a00hPa temperatures to increase from about 11th January? Its 0.54° warmer than this day last year at 250hPa and 0.74° warmer at 400 hPa. Notice of a new paper Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 71, Issue 2, February 2009, Pages 216-220: QBO in solar wind speed and its relation to ENSO by Klemens Hocke Abstract: Corotating coronal holes of the Sun induce fluctuations of the solar wind speed in the vicinity of the Earth. The fluctuations of solar wind speed are closely correlated with geomagnetic activity. Solar wind speed has been monitored by satellites since the mid 1960s. The long-term series of solar wind speed show enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period 27.3 days and at its harmonics 13.6 and 9.1 days. The amplitude series are modulated by a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with a period of 1.75a (21 months) as bispectral analysis reveals. A 1.75a QBO component is also present in the equatorial, zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component at the period 2.4a (29 months). The solar wind QBO may influence the stratospheric QBO, the global electric circuit, and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux, and particle precipitation. For a further analysis, the series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a. The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as function of time. The maxima of the solar wind QBO series are correlated with those of the ENSO index. The analysis indicate that the solar wind QBO may trigger the ENSO activity. This result is speculative at the moment. However, the focus of the study is on the investigation of the long-term modulations of the short-term (4–45 days) oscillations of the solar wind speed which are quite unexplored yet.

Grey Wolf, I am working away on this subject currently but there is an observation that in my view demonstrates the mechanism behind a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Concurrent with the warming in the Arctic stratosphere/troposphere we have a marked cooling in the stratosphere at 25°N to 25°S. This is apparent at 30hPa at latitude 25°N to 25°S where temperature dropped from a level about the 1979-2007 mean to establish a spectacular new minimum for this or any time of the year. How could a warming in the Arctic be related to a cooling at the equator and in the southern hemisphere? The Arctic warming is obviously associated with a marked expansion of the Arctic atmosphere. This expansion forces a compression (or piling up) of the atmosphere between 20°N latitude and Antarctica. Accordingly there is enhanced absorption of ionizing radiation in the new thickened atmosphere at low latitudes and a commensurate loss of energy to warm the lower stratosphere. The resultant strong cooling can be detected at 30hPa and as far down as 150Hpa at 10°N to 10°S. It is in the tropics that the cooling effect is most spectacular. I don't imagine that the Arctic stratosphere could warm as much as it does without a change in the ionosphere/plasmasphere that allows increased ionizing radiation to come to bear upon the Arctic stratosphere. This is very much a two stage affair, first a slight increase in ionizing radiation and then the solar wind comes into play to allow very much more ionizing radiation to penetrate into the Arctic a week or so after the sunspot event. The warming is top down from above 1hPa. Accordingly I don't think that the breaking tropospheric wave theory has legs. It's plainly unphysical. The really important change is in the plasmasphere/magnetosphere where the solar wind comes into play and it affects the distribution and density of the atmosphere at the pole vis a vis the Equator. I visualize a spinning top effect with the greater centrifugal force holding that tropical atmosphere away from the Equator for an extended period of time once it is disturbed by the solar wind. The extraordinarily quiet sun allows this observation. This is a very different solar minimum and its like a laboratory in action. The stratosphere is cold and dry, its ozone levels are recovering and it is gradually warming, and in so doing reversing a trend of 30 years. The response of the stratosphere varies with its ozone content. This has been known for a long time. It gets a mention in Van Loon and Labitzke's book 'The Stratosphere'. Now is the time to see what a little bit of solar activity can do to a very responsive atmosphere. Nobody who values their job will give credence to a notion that the stratosphere (where temperature increases in elevation due to the impact of solar radiation) can respond to a change in solar parameters. It would be the thin edge of the wedge of an alternative explanation of the observed warming. Once it is acknowledged that the upper troposphere responds to solar influences the greenhouse theory is unneccessary.

Delta X Ray Here is a Clydesdale for a Cart. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming has its greatest effect at the highest elevation. This suggests a top down causation. The onset of the SSW in the Arctic was five days after the appearance of a new sunspot group that generated X ray activity. According to my calculations the transit time from the Sun to the Earth at the current solar wind speed of about 350km per second is about 5 days. That was the lag period before the onset of the warming. I suggest that this event is related to the magnetosphere and energising effects of the solar wind on the Arctic atmosphere. A warm temperature anomaly is evident is all the way down as far as 300hPa at 60-90°N. See current GDAS -CPC Zonal anomaly 60-90N. That warming also appears at 25°N to 65°N as you can also see in the diagrams at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...ere/strat-trop/ Here is the kicker: Concurrent with the warming in the Arctic stratosphere/troposphere we have a marked cooling in the stratosphere at 25°N to 25°S. See:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/index.shtml This suggests a compression (or piling up) of the atmosphere between 20°N latitude and Antarctica commensurate with marked expansion of the atmospheric column(with heating) in the northern part of the northern hemisphere. Accordingly there is a concomitant reduction in the energizing effect of ionizing radiation on the stratosphere/upper troposphere between 20°N and Antarctica. The resultant instantaneous cooling can be detected as far down as 150Hpa at 10°N to 10°S and in a downward deflection of the stratosphere temperature curves in the southern hemisphere. We have to bear in mind is that the Earths atmosphere is ever changing. Currently, the tropical sea and the stratosphere is cool and dry (paucity of convection in the tropics). In this circumstance ozone levels in the stratosphere recover so it becomes much more reactive to small changes in ionising radiation. This effect is exaggerated in the winter hemisphere. So, the absolute levels of the solar parameters are a poor guide as to what to expect. The stage is set by the atmosphere itself and the temperature of tropical waters. The warming of the stratosphere and upper troposphere in the current instance extended into the mid latitudes of the northern hemisphere that carry the high pressure cells. That warming has the capacity to change sea surface temperature at these latitudes due to loss of high altitude cloud, particularly in those mid ocean locations that have high ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere. The warmer waters will gradually be driven towards the equator by the North East Trade winds. Perhaps the loss of central pressure due to upper troposphere warming in mid latitudes is associated with heightened pressure in the Arctic vortex and the onset of very cold weather at high latitudes that seems to follow the sudden stratospheric warming. Delta X Ray and Nimbostratus: Thanks for the reference to my blog. It helps keep me motivated. Erl