Ice Day

Interesting early changes on the 6z with the jet digging a bit further south, leaving us with this at day 9 Based on this run, our Irish contingent will be raising an eyebrow at 198hrs The days that follow show some snow for most areas around the UK. With the jet going south, were now very much in slider territory at day 10, with heights looking to build over Greenland. I'm enjoying the model consistency, if nothing else. It's a very long way off, but it's a start.

A definite yes from me. It's been yet another winter of massive letdowns, as they always seem to be these days, but a late February cold spell can still pack a punch. There's some tentative uniformity between the ECM day 10 and GFS day 11, with rising heights up towards Greenland helping a pretty potent Scandi trough over in the days that follow Confidence levels are of course extremely low at this range, but if the models are showing it, it's worth discussing. For those that threw the towel in, you'll need to sit this one out!

Well it's been a while since we had a pun run special, but it's churning out a corker at day 13! Very cold and an unstable airflow, very nice. However, this has about as much chance as any other day 13 pub run chart

Drifter Completely unscientific, but probably just the GFS doing GFS'y things?! Be interesting where it sits in the ensembles, probably a very big outlier! For what it's worth, the GEFS mean at 150 is improved vs the 6z

The GEM at days 9 and 10 looks really good Then we have the GFS at days 9 and 10 - yikes Then the UKMO at 168 is excellent Well, if the ECM backs the UK and GEM, game on. If it backs the GFS, oh dear!

Day 7 UKMO - not bad at all

GFS at day 9 is now starting to look like the day 9 ECM, albeit a tad slower

That's a different point Luke. I was just challenging your statement 'well played the GFS', as its been just as inconsistent as the others, albeit it hasn't 'yet' shown the same solution as the Euro's. It is still the leader. The verification stats show the ECM first, UKMO second. Of course, the GFS, ICON, and GEM have the occasional victory, but overall, the Euro's still lead the way, but are not infallible.

Lukesluckybunch Can't agree with you at all. For example this mornings GFS 0z for 132 hrs Yesterday's 0z for the same time To suggest the GFS has, in some way, trumped the other models is incorrect. It verifies behind the ECM and UKMO (and now the GEM) for good reason.

240 - not quite, but this won't be the final outcome The fact that the UK and ECM are in almost perfect unison at 168 is a major plus. Exciting days ahead

Crazy chart at 216

Could we see a cross-polar flow on the 216? Doubtful, but whatever there's big changes afoot

Here's the 192

ECM and UK at 168 are very much on the same page with the split vortex Where's it going from here then?

The GEM finishes on an interesting note at day 10..... but it is day 10! The UKMO at 168 Big vortex split

Indeed Blue, I'd prefer the double 6's to come in the semi-reliable rather than day 10+. But given the state of the PV, hitting the jackpot is not an impossible task!

Crikey, sounds like a few people need a hug in here! If it's really that bad for you, shut the laptop/App and come back in a few days!!! Anyway, whilst the ECM ensembles are throwing out some decent options around days 10-12, I'm not yet ready to throw the towel in. ECM Control at Day 11 The mean also showing more PV across to the Siberian side vs its earlier run There's no denying that it's a long-shot, but with 3 weeks of Feb to go (plus I'll give it the first week of March), I'm not yet ready to wave the white flag.

Rain All Night Great post RAN. Well, here's the ECM ensemble mean at 300, another step forward I'd say The ECM Control for the same time There are so many options on the table now, it's somewhat mind-boggling! We'll need A LOT of patience over this next chase, if that's what it turns out to be!?

ECM / GEM /GFS at 216 ECM lagging a bit, but it's on its way

ECM at 192, a continuation of this afternoons theme

Indeed, and a big improvement on the UK's 850's too I really wasn't expecting these runs to be honest. Remarkable turnaround

The GEM at day 10 is close to very good The GFS at the same time, whilst not as good, is a huge improvement vs this morning's dross Upgrades from here will liven us all up again. That said, there's a high probability that the models are overreacting again.

12z vs the 6z at day 8 That's quite a difference. It's far from perfect, but a start.

GEM going the same route at 168 as well..... interesting!

I suspect it will be very close to this from the GFS Lack of deep cold to the east, but it's an improvement if nothing else!