user700

I live near Wigan I recorded 46 mm of rain yesterday and 39 mm so far today

My virtual chase target today is McPherson county, KS.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING TWO PRINCIPAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW OVER WRN CONUS... 1. HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NRN NV NWWD ACROSS COASTAL BC. EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE TOGETHER IN SUPPORT OF CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON...OVER NRN ROCKIES. CYCLONE CENTER SHOULD REACH SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD BORDER REGION BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE... 2. COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY OVER NRN NM/ERN CO BORDER -- SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...REACHING ERN PORTIONS KS/NEB BORDER REGION BY 28/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY SUBSTANTIALLY FROM ABOUT 27/21Z ONWARD...REACHING NRN/ERN IA AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC REGION -- IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL AFFECT CANADIAN MARITIMES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE THROUGH AFTERNOON THEN BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER CAROLINAS. WRN LIMB OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND AR...LOCATED OVER OZARKS AND ERN KS AND CONNECTING TO SFC LOW OVER E-CENTRAL KS BY 28/00Z. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND NWWD FROM LOW ACROSS NEB/SD TO SFC CYCLONE OVER ERN MT...PRECEDING NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION. COLD FRONT TRAILING KS LOW WILL EXTEND WSWWD TO NWRN OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 28/00Z...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD TO N-CENTRAL/NERN OK THEN SSWWD OVER CENTRAL TX. LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS NRN MO AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND NW TX BY 28/12Z. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO... --- EARLY --- SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT START OF PERIOD...IN PLUME FROM NEB PANHANDLE AND NERN CO SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KS. THIS WILL REPRESENT NEWD SHIFT OF STG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT PLUME AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTIVE REGIME NOW COVERING MUCH OF ERN CO AND EXTENDING INTO WRN OK PANHANDLE. SVR THREAT BY START OF PERIOD TIME WILL BE MRGL AT BEST...GIVEN WEAK NEAR-SFC THETAE EXPECTED OVER SWRN NEB AND WRN KS. ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NEWD OVER NEB AND WEAKEN BY MIDDAY. --- AFTERNOON/EVENING --- RELATIVELY COMPACT CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AND SHIFT EWD TODAY ACROSS MAINLY KS. LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING TIMING/DURATION OF FAVORABLE SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN KS...OTHERWISE NARROW CORRIDOR OF EVEN GREATER SVR PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME APPARENT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE BEHIND MORNING ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE. MOST PROBABLE LOCATION ATTM APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS...IN ARC FROM N THROUGH ESE OF NEARBY SFC LOW. MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-UPPER 60S F SFC TEMPS...CERTAINLY ATTAINABLE WITH EVEN BRIEF SLOT OF PRE-DRYLINE SFC INSOLATION...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS AND MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG. STG VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF SFC LOW AND NEARBY WARM FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. EWD-SHIFTING WARM SECTOR SLOT WILL WIDEN AND BECOME MORE BUOYANT WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT ACROSS KS DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ARC OF SVR TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP....WHETHER SEPARATELY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY FARTHER W OR AS SEWD-BUILDING EXTENSION. ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MAY MERGE INTO SVR WIND-PRODUCING AND NEARLY CONTINUOUS ARC. HOWEVER...FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN OVER ERN KS INTO THAT PART OF SWRN MO ALONG AND SW OF WARM FRONT. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE MAY REACH 2500 J/KG IN E-CENTRAL/SERN KS...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 50 KT. EXTENSION OF THREAT INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN OK IS CONDITIONAL DUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY STRENGTHENED CAPPING LIKELY OVER OK...ALONG WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SVR PROBABILITIES THEREFORE DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT OVER OK. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS S-CENTRAL MO TO MS RIVER AREA. ...SERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...FROM ERN SC AT LEAST AS FAR WNWWD AS NERN AL...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FARTHER NW WHERE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. SFC DEW POINTS 60S F...STG HEATING...AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE MLCINH AMIDST 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BENEATH GENERALLY 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR...WITH SPORADIC STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER 00Z...DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS OF BOTH SFC DIABATIC COOLING AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

Large Tornado southwest of Cherokee, OK

The team are just to the south of this storm near Wellington OK where large tornados have been reported.

The team are just to the south of this storm Live stream http://content.wdtin...C=20643&O=10432

Large tornado just nw of Marquette, KS

Large tornado reported

Working ok now

Live stream is now online http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=14613&C=20643&O=10432

ATM my virtual chase target today is now Concordia KS north Kansas.

Jetstream Cape and LI EHI Temperature Dew Points Pressure

Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook Forecast Discussion SPC AC 140543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS/WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT A STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK...NOW DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU TODAY...BEFORE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE A 90-100+ KT 500 MB JET CORE...WHICH MAY BE PRECEDED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAXIMUM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/ CENTRAL PLAINS REGION DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A 1000 MB LOW CENTER DEEPENING BELOW 990 MB ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN 14/12Z AND 15/00Z. WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS /50+ KT AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING UP TO 70 KT DURING THE EVENING/. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUING NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE RETURNING OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...INTO THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS...THAT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS MAY INCLUDE SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS...BY TONIGHT... THE EVOLUTION OF A SUBSTANTIAL SQUALL LINE. ...NEBRASKA... NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE WRAPPING INTO THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE...INTO THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME VERY CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 18-21Z...IF NOT BEFORE...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...AND SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. ...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TEXAS... BARRING COMPLICATIONS FROM RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PROBABLY WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SPARSE...PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE AND SURGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONCE THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..KERR/LEITMAN.. 04/14/2012

Great photos Paul and live stream. Hope everyone’s ok in Norman.

Wow impressive storm now on the live stream http://content.wdtin...C=20643&O=10432

There was a mesocyclone there on radar

Lots of areas of rotation on this storm now

Storms look interesting now to the south west

Oklahoma radar