Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024

[WYorksWeather]

The two central Atlantic lows are not expected to develop (yellow).

Growing chances of development over the 7-day timeframe for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico (60%) and also in the eastern tropical Atlantic (40%).

[matty40s]

 

[WeatherArc]

Really need to keep a close eye on developments in the Gulf, 12z GFS puts out a 932mb hurricane with at least Category 3-4 winds, with this being the first notable system over the Gulf since Beryl it will have a significant amount of untapped ocean heat content to use. 12z wants landfall in the big bend close to Panama City.

Still 105 hours out but alarm bells beginning to sound over this thing, needs watching.

Its worth noting the GFS isnt alone here, the Korean model wants a 885!! mb system with gusts up to 190mph.

Interesting few days of model watching for the Gulf ahead.

Edited September 22 by WeatherArc

[karyo]

The GFS is wild but the ECM goes with a shallower storm (still a hurricane though). This is because the ECM moves the storm much faster through the GOM so it has less time to develop. 

The 12z UKMO is closer to the ECM but importantly it has upgraded the strength of the storm compared to the 0z output.

[WYorksWeather]

The two key variables from here will be the time it forms, and the speed / direction of travel over the Gulf of Mexico. An earlier formation with a long, slow sea track would be the worst case scenario. The best case would be a late formation with a faster track through the GOM leading to landfall before it gets organised.

[WYorksWeather]

The central Atlantic spot is no longer expected to develop (0% chance).

The Gulf of Mexico spot is at 40/80 (2 day / 7 day) and the central Atlantic spot at 0/50.

All down to how quickly the Gulf of Mexico AOI forms a proper centre at this stage. Unfortunately, sky is the limit for intensity if it forms early enough.

 

[WYorksWeather]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has now been designated, and should form in the next few hours. To the east, the tropical wave off the Atlantic has a 20% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, and a 70% chance of formation in the next week, so that is another one to watch.

[Thunder Snow]

I think number 9 has the ingredients to rapidly strengthen, and be a destructive storm

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Thunder Snow]

Isaac developed quite quickly

[karyo]

 Thunder Snow It went from 10% chance of development to a tropical storm in 24 hours!

[matty40s]

 

[WYorksWeather]

Should still be mentioned that this season still has a fair way to go to catch up to climatology, and certainly to then match predictions of a well above average season. 

 Here are the latest stats. On most of them, this season is below average or near average. Clearly a very active October could change things. 

[WeatherArc]

Round two? 12z GFS says yes, stronger on this run aswell, Cat 3.

After a very quiet period the Atlantic seems to of completely exploded in activity.

[WYorksWeather]

 WeatherArc That spot on the right is now red (30/70). The Caribbean spot now 0/50.

Decent chance we see Kirk and Leslie in the next week or so.

[matty40s]

Oh dear, this one was on some of the models a week ago...

 

[WYorksWeather]

Certainly looking like peak season now.

An active hurricane (Isaac), an active TS (Joyce), a red AOI (80/90), an amber AOI (0/50), and a yellow AOI (0/30).

[Thunder Snow]

Hopefully the orange blob stays away from where helene has struck

[Lauren]

After a stunted start, things have certainly gone into overdrive!

[FetchCB]

 Thunder Snow

Given the accuracy of the models over Helene the ensemble tracks are worrying 

[Thunder Snow]

 FetchCB

Yes I know could be another major

[FetchCB]

 Thunder Snow

Possibly although if it follows  the same track it will be hindered by the upwelling of cold water by Helene 

[WYorksWeather]

 Thunder Snow I think we're a fair way off from that. Most modelling I've seen doesn't look too aggressive with this. Clearly even a TS would hamper recovery efforts from Helene if it struck similar areas, and whilst there are odd runs that look aggressive, I think too early to draw many conclusions.

[matty40s]

 

[WYorksWeather]

Tropical Depression Twelve has now formed.

NHC expecting it to strengthen and become a major hurricane (Cat 3+) by day 5. Should add a fair bit to the ACE totals, and hopefully have minimal land impact. It should be a fairly standard recurve out to sea with this one.