Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Monthly - Seasonal modelling has been consistent with November being favourable- active for cyclonic developments in The Caribbean 

[WYorksWeather]

Following the recent flurry of activity, all metrics are now significantly above average.

Real-Time Global Tropical Cyclone Activity

TROPICAL.ATMOS.COLOSTATE.EDU

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is now also enough for an above average season overall. For a hyperactive season, more activity would be needed, as the required threshold is 160 ACE. That seems very achievable now. Might still be a way below some of the more aggressive forecasts, which were calling for 200 ACE or more. It remains to be seen though.

 

[Don]

 WYorksWeather Wow, that's a big increase in ACE in the last 7 days!  Of course I did expect an increase, what with all the activity but not that much.

[WeatherArc]

Keeping an eye on this, GEFS wants another tropical development, Euro not so much. About a week out.

Edited October 12 by WeatherArc

[WYorksWeather]

 Don Yep, the increases are very rapid when you have multiple fairly strong systems in the Atlantic. All three of Kirk, Milton and Leslie delivered significant amounts of ACE.

Tropical storms rarely add much, but long-duration hurricanes add a large amount. Milton's strong phases in particular added huge amounts in short periods of time.

I still think given that a lot of the marginal areas of interest have failed to develop so far, we are going to undershoot named storms compared to the hyperactive forecasts. We're currently at 13/9/4 for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. Definitely still a possibility of a quality-over-quantity type season if we see a couple more major hurricanes - it would then rank very highly for ACE, hurricanes and major hurricanes, but only a little above average for named storms.

Very interesting that this does seem to conform with some of the climate change predictions, which are calling for a decrease in the number of storms, but that those that do form will be stronger, and more prone to rapid intensification.

Of course, we are a long way from being able to prove that in terms of climatology. Interesting nonetheless.

[matty40s]

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

What is ace?

[Thunder Snow]

I think it's the collective storm activity for example how long they last, and the strength of the storms altogether. But I could be wrong

[matty40s]

Accumulated Collective Energy..???

[WYorksWeather]

 *Stormforce~beka* Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It is based on the square of the speed of the winds of tropical cyclones / hurricanes summed up over their lifetime. The squared bit is to reflect energy - 100mph winds have four times as much energy as 50mph winds, not twice as much.

Effectively it's used as a measure that values the quality of storms as well as just their quantity. One season might have 20 storms, but most of them are tropical storms or weak hurricanes, whereas another season might have 15 storms, but with a far greater number of strong and long-lasting hurricanes.

The point of the ACE measure is effectively to combine that all into one single metric for a hurricane season. Obviously it still has some flaws - it doesn't consider land impacts for example, so the so-called 'fish storms' that spend a long time milling about in the Atlantic but don't harm anyone count the same as major storms that impact land. But it is probably the most objective way of doing it that anyone has devised so far.

[The PIT]

And there maybe another one on the way. From about 10% chance to 70% today is quite a jump

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. North of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (AL94): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a trough of low pressure continues to produce showers and thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph, continuing north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 2. Western Caribbean Sea (AL95): Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday. Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

[Thunder Snow]

We have POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN

[Thunder Snow]

We have nadine briefly, and rhe yellow x from yesterday is now a red x. Am I the only one that things nhc are behind the curve recently 

[Thunder Snow]

And just like that we now have Oscar to

[WYorksWeather]

Yep, pretty quick way to add two tropical storms to the tally. Neither will add much ACE though as they are both very weak systems.

 

[karyo]

Oscar has quickly become a hurricane with 80mph winds - that's rapid intensification!

[snowsummer]

 karyo last one we had was rapid, and small. I know its got a short shelf life at present, but i wonder.......

[karyo]

 snowsummer It wasn't expected to form 24 hours ago and now a hurricane just like that. 

[Thunder Snow]

Why are the nhc so far behind 

[snowsummer]

 karyo yes, sorry, i didnt make clear what i meant. I was totally  agreeing with you. I just wondered that with it acting so unexpectedly whether it could possibly suprise us all and not dissipate  as fast as predicted also. Unlikely  i suppose  but everything seems a bit strange these days.

[karyo]

 snowsummer It does indeed! The NHC is expecting Oscar to make landfall in eastern Cuba. This is such bad luck of them and much of the country does not have electricity because of a power plant failure. 

[Thunder Snow]

Looks like the Atlantic season wants to go out with a bang 

1. X with a 70% chance

2. 10% 

3. 40% chance 

[karyo]

 Thunder Snow It will be interesting to see which area (1 or 3) will become Patty.

1 in the Caribbean has the highest chance but 3 has shown surprising organisation in the last 24 hours and the chances are up to 60% now. Regardless of development, it is likely to give some stormy weather to the Azores.

[Thunder Snow]

 karyo and just like that we have subtropical patty

[Atmogenic]

 Thunder Snow i can't take that storm seriously with that name, it just brings a krabby patty to my head.