Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024

[Eagle Eye]

Now comes the point where I don't think the radar predictions are anything specific now. Instead follow the kinematics if you want to know specific areas as it's still only been general areas at day 3 and 2 and a matter of miles, not even the UKV is going to be that good. 

[Supacell]

Looks like I'll be out chasing tonight. I'm not quite sure exactly where to place myself yet but certainly I will be heading south later this afternoon/early evening time.

At the moment I'm torn between heading down to the Kent coastline, a bit further west on the East or West Sussex coastline or not travelling as far and stopping somewhere to the east of London. I did the stopping near London on the 18th May 2022 though and when the storms came in there was nowhere to view them from and I ended up with this and busy and complicated roads screwing me over (even at late evening). I'm therefore nervous about that option. 

[Alderc 2.0]

Arome 06Z is a touch further north and east. Not good for here. Think we’ll just be under a tonne of rain. 20-40mm possible tonight. 

[Josh Rubio]

I think it’ll be a case of looking at the rain radar as we get closer to the event tonight. 

[lottiekent]

Took until 3rd June to hit 20c on my station last year. Have hit that today as the warm air moves up from France and feeling humid.

[Eagle Eye]

My rough sketches on the development. 

My expected frequent lightning areas. In the dotted surroundings. So the central south from the initial MCS, SE from combining developments and London ish area for the new developments but these don't seem to be as impressive. Thundery rain with semi frequent lightning mixed in between based off current modelling but only a rough sketch remember. 

Edited May 1 by Eagle Eye

[CoventryWeather]

Northwards trend on the latest UKV. Better for no one really.  

Does seem to fizzle out quicker though. 

Edited May 1 by CoventryWeather

[Alderc 2.0]

 CoventryWeather that’s a rubbish trend.

[CoventryWeather]

 Alderc 2.0 fixed it..

[Southern Storm]

 CoventryWeather  somewhere is going to get an absolute banger of a storm, the trend for the strongest storms to affect the southeast is a bit disappointing from my point of view but I'm still holding out hope for some kind of correction west, but it's getting to the point that this won't be the case, but you never know. Good luck to you either way 

The only question is do I chase or not? I have to be at work for 8am,  and the storms don't get going until late evening and into the early hours, and I'll have to travel, decisions decisions...

Edited May 1 by Southern Storm

[Metwatch]

Some of the stuff in the Netherlands last night, hopefully similar scenes for many tonight.

Not expecting much tonight here but never know, so will stay awake until maybe 3-4am. Might head to the top of one of the multi storey car parks in the city centre for a better view if storms close in, interesting to try them out during night storms.

 

1 hour ago, Supacell said:

I did the stopping near London on the 18th May 2022 though and when the storms came in there was nowhere to view them from and I ended up with this and busy and complicated roads screwing me over (even at late evening).

Built up areas or cities usually a nightmare to chase, however if you can get onto some sort of skyscraper or even a high multi-storey car park like a few here, can get some of the best views even arguably better than most rural areas; cityscape thunderstorm/lightning photos always look amazing.

Edited May 1 by Metwatch

[CoventryWeather]

 Southern Storm True. Would have storm chased for the first time if it weren't for college. And the long distances.. would be happier to wait to chase something a little closer. 

Still a long time in this storm season to go! 

[ChannelThunder]

 Southern Storm can see you ending up with about 2 hours sleep before work if you do chase... So the boring but safe option would be to stay put! Nobody wants to try and function at work on that little kip! 

Unless you can book some late notice leave

[Southern Storm]

 ChannelThunder I don't mind burning the candle at both ends every once in a while, especially if it's worth it, I think I'll wait and see what the later models throw out before deciding, when I have a chance I'll do a comparison to see how latest guidance compares with current observations.

[Jamie M]

 Alderc 2.0

Can confirm it’s very muggy around here

 

[Wade]

Yep definitely feeling summer like here, clouds are starting to bubble up, humidity is building. As other members have said, someone is going to get a humdinger of a storm, it's a case of luck in this instance. 

[ChannelThunder]

Very much now looking better placed here in Winchester than I will be back home tonight! 

[GreyCrag]

I've been flipping between Reading, Portsdown Hill, Surrey Hills, and finally made a decision that i'll try and position closer to Bicester as google maps has come up trumps with a spot that has a expansive 180 view from the SE to SW. The problem chasing in the south is finding somewhere facing directly south that has parking and isn't surrounded by trees (ie. Surrey Hills). 

The slight northerly trend and cells forming within the MSC boundary outflow puts me in good confidence that there'll at least be something to see away from the heavier PPN core, even if it's not a direct hit.

[Mapantz]

I'm not expecting anything electrical here, but I was hoping for some lightning flashes as I want to see how my new 4K webcam performs.

[Eagle Eye]

Cumulus showing the pure amount of humidity and moisture available. Very much got that feeling of before a storm here. 

[Paul]

Update from @Jo Farrow

Risk of thunderstorms overnight with lightning and hail

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Northern France has warnings for thunderstorms for the start of May. With favourable ingredients of warm moist air, high CAPE and a warm front, southern Britain could see storms, hail and lightning.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Good to hear of the positive reports further southeast. I'm also out chasing tonight, and probably finding somewhere near the M4/M25 corridor. Don't really want to get sucked into the poor road network across the far SE.

[Dami]

I know it's not the place, but i'm sure certain threads like my 'no storms' was going to be different this year? Could a mod confirm to me if i can start a thread or if they will?

Thanks!

@Blessed Weather sorry to tag but i saw you were online. 

Edited May 1 by Dami

[Blessed Weather]

 Dami  Hi. I'll message you now.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Rush2019 This is different to BBC this morning who just said thundery rain. Can't say I'm excited as it doesn't look that great if just rain to me