2024 N Atlantic hurricane season forecast contest _ enter by 5th of June

[Roger J Smith]

As we did last year, Net-weather members are invited to enter a three-forum contest to predict the number of named storms as defined and counted by NOAA in calendar year 2024. Include any counted by contest entry deadline (so far count is zero). 

The entries go into a pool of American Weather Forum, Net-weather, and Boards.ie weather forum entries, tabulated on American Weather Forum. I will report on your progress in this thread, as the season unfolds. The 1st June deadline was extended a few days to 5th of June as the situation is "dormant" but later today (5th) I will be closing off contest to any new entries, so enter today if you haven't already. 

1991-2020 average is 14/7/3 but various experts are predicting counts near 22/11/5 so far, and these expert forecasts are included in the contest as markers (not affecting contest ranks).

(Note: predict number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, the standard three element "count" for a tropical season). 

Good luck if you decide to enter. 

Edited June 4 by Roger J Smith

[Metwatch]

22 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major.

Edited May 13 by Metwatch

[Dancerwithwings]

19 storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major….

[matty40s]

There are 21 names this year, so...

I am going for the Greek alphabet being used as well.

25 storms, 12 hurricanes and 7 major storms due the Atlantic heatsink.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

• Named Storms - 18
• Hurricanes - 11
• Major Hurricanes - 5

Thanks

[WYorksWeather]

Going to stick my neck out here:

Storms: 32

Hurricanes: 17

Major Hurricanes: 8

 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts was posted earlier today: 

http://americanwx.com/bb/topic/60249-2024-hurricane-season-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-5-06z-deadline-extended/page/2/

[Roger J Smith]

Scoring for contest possible results

 

reminder, error point deductions from 100 are scored by formula (E + E^2) / 2, except that storm errors are (E + E^2) / 4. A total score below zero is adjusted to zero. (E = category error).

 

Residual errors for 18/11/5

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) _________storms_hurr_major __ 18 11 5 _ 19 11 5 _ 20 11 5

 

TomCosgrave (IE-3) ____________________ 21 ___ 15 ____ 2 _____ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0

(for context, 21 0 0 scores -15.5, 21 15 2 scores -138.5)

CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 3 _____18.0 ___ 25.5 __ 32.5

karmac (7) _______________________________15 ____ 3 ____ 2 _____31.0 ___ 38.5 __ 45.5

WYorksWeather (NW-5) _________________14 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____20.5 ___ 27.5 __ 34.0

LongBeachSurfFreak (10) _______________ 14 ____ 1 ____(-1)____45.5 ___ 52.5 __ 59.0

nvck (8) _________________________________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 0 _____57.0 ___ 62.5 __ 67.5

Tezeta (16) ______________________________ 11 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____61.0 ___ 66.5 __ 71.5

Jtm12180 (33) ___________________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____54.5 ___ 59.5 __ 64.0

WxWatcher007 (1) _______________________10 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 68.5 ___ 73.5 __ 78.0

cnimbus (3) ______________________________ 9____ 6 ____ 1 _____ 55.5 ___ 60.0 __ 64.5

Yanksfan (9) _____________________________ 9____ 6 ____ 0 _____ 56.5 ___ 61.5 __ 66.0

ineedsnow (32) __________________________ 9 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____65.5 ___ 70.5 __ 75.0

metalicwx367 (34) _______________________ 8 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____69.0 ___ 73.0 __ 76.5

LovintheWhiteFluff (31) __________________8 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 82.0 __ 85.5

SnowLover22 (43) _______________________ 8 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 82.0 __ 85.5

Normandy (14) __________________________ 7 ____ 6 ____ 5 _____50.0 ___ 53.5 __ 56.5

Brian5671 (22) ___________________________7 ____ 5 ____(-2) ____67.0 ___ 70.5 __ 73.5

Diggiebot (11) ____________________________7 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____74.0 ___ 77.5 __ 80.5

Matty40s (NW-3) _________________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 82.0 ___ 85.5 __ 88.5

ncforecaster89 (38) _______________________7 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 84.0 ___ 87.5 __ 90.5

CHSVol (5) ________________________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____85.0 ___ 88.5 __ 91.5

JonClaw (23) ______________________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____85.0 ___ 88.5 __ 91.5

Big Jims Videos (21) _______________________7 ____ 1 ____(-1)_____84.0 ___ 87.5 __ 90.5

wxdude64 (late) ___________________________7 ___(-3) ___ 0 _____80.0 ___ 83.5 __ 86.5

SnowenOutThere (39) ____________________ 6 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 88.0

ImleahBradley (19) ________________________ 6 ____ 3 ____(-1)____82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 88.0

IntenseWind002 (24) ______________________ 6 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____86.5 ___ 89.5 __ 92.0

Stebo (17) _________________________________ 6 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0

Eyewall (late) ______________________________ 6 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0

DOCARCH (IE-2) ___________________________ 6 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0

LakeNormanStormin (41) __________________6 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____89.5 ___ 92.5 __ 95.0

Roger Smith (20) ___________________________6 ____ 0 ____(-1)____88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0

___ Contest consensus (Median) _________ 6  ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 88.5 ___ 91.5 __ 94.0

StormchaserChuck1 (4) ____________________5 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0

GeorgeBM (37) _____________________________5 ____ 2 ____1 _____ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0

FPizz (18) __________________________________ 5 ____ 2 ____(-1)___ 88.5 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0

___ Expert consensus ______________________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____92.5 ___ 95.0 __ 97.0

Hotair (28) _________________________________ 5 ____ 0 ____(-1)____ 91.5 ___ 94.0 __ 96.0

Southmdwatcher (42) ______________________ 4 ____ 4 ____ 3 ____ 79.0 ___ 81.0 __ 82.5

Snowlover2 (15) ____________________________ 4 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 88.0 ___ 90.0  __ 91.5

cardinalland (26) ___________________________ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____  93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5

Yoda (30) ___________________________________4 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 94.0 ___ 96.0 __ 97.5

___ UKMO forecast _________________________ 4 ____ 1 ____(-1)____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5

Seminole (25) _______________________________4 ____ 0 ___(-2) ____ 92.0 ___ 94.0 __ 95.5

Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 4 ____(-1)___(-1)____ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __ 96.5

ldub23 (40) _________________________________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 95.0 ___ 96.5 __ 97.5

___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 3 ___-0.5 __0.5 ____ 96.2 ___ 97.7 __ 98.7

Gawx (35) ___________________________________ 3 ____(-1)____ 0 ____ 96.0 ___ 97.5 __ 98.5

Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________ 3 ____(-3)___(-1) ___ 90.0 ___ 91.5 __ 92.5

Rhino16 (2) __________________________________2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 99.0

Torch Tiger (13) ______________________________2 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 99.0

vpBob (27) ___________________________________2 ____(-2)___0 _____ 95.5 ___ 96.5 __ 97.0

jlauderdal (36) _______________________________ 1 ____(-2)___ 0 _____96.5 ___ 97.0 __ 96.5

dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________ 1 ___ (-3) __(-2)____ 90.5 ___ 91.0 __ 90.5

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ____________________0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ___100.0 ___99.5 __ 98.5

Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) ______________ 0_____(-1)___(-1)___98.0 ___ 97.5 __ 96.5

wkd (29) _____________________________________(-3) ___(-2) __(-1)____93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.5

tae laidir (IE-4) _______________________________(-3)___ (-2) __(-1)____93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.5

Retrobuc (12) _________________________________(-5)___(-3)__(-3)____80.5 ___ 77.5 __ 74.0

______________________________

Kirkcaldy Weather (Net-wx) (KW below) wins at 18/11/5 and also 19/11/5 .

Rhino16 and Torch Tiger would overtake at 20/11/5.

We're not going to know the results for several weeks at least. 

 

<<< Table will be re-ordered closer to end of contest to include ranks)

---------------------------------

 

(original forecasts)

TomCosgrave (IE-3) _________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7

CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 33 _____ 15 ______ 8 (will rank, ineligible to win)

karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7

WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8

LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4

nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5

Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7

Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7

WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6

cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6

Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5

ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8

metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7

LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6

SnowLover22 (43) ___________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6

Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10

Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3

Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 25 _____ 14 ______ 8

Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7

ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6

CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5

JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5

Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4

wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win)

SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6

ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 24 _____ 14 ______ 4

IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5

Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 24 _____ 12 ______ 5

Eyewall (late) ________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win)

DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6

LakeNormanStormin (41) ___________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5

Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4

___ Contest consensus (Median) __________ 24 _____ 12 _____ 5

StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6

GeorgeBM (37) _____________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 6

FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4

___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5

Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4

Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8

Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6

cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6

Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5

___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4

Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3

Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4

ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5

___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5

Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5

Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4

Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5

Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________20 _____ 11 ______ 6

vpBob (27) __________________________________20 ______ 9 ______ 5

jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5

dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5

Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _____________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4

wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4

tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4

Retrobuc (12) _______________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2

 

--------------------------

Congrats to KW on a so far leading forecast. Will place final scores in rank order, editing table above.

 

Edited November 23 by Roger J Smith

[Metwatch]

On 13/05/2024 at 19:25, Metwatch said:

22 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major

Not too far off in the end, a little less in the way of tropical storms than I expected, as we had that lull in activity mid August - mid September, but a lot of storms that did form became hurricanes and quite a few of them major as well.

An above average season compared to the 1991-20 averages of 14.4 TS's, 7.2 Hur, 3.2 major.

 

Well done to @Kirkcaldy Weather who so far got them all spot on!