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First 30 degrees 2024 watch


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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
Posted (edited)
On 13/05/2024 at 01:30, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I am going for 10th of June.

As we edge closer to that date, it's looking like there actually won't be any hot weather on the horizon at any time soon. But then, it's 13 days out so still plenty of time for a change.

But I am now going for an average first half of June followed by a brief hot spell around the solstice. So I will now go for 19th of June.

 

Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, low - mid 20s and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

30C in May remains very rare. Can't remember the last time it happened - did it make it in 2018?

2012 last time then 2005

Just attached this as well @Summer8906

firsttempsoftheyearsince2003.thumb.png.36d9188dc36d8349bddd50f8e1879c4d.png

Edited by Metwatch
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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and mixed summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

July 26 😱

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield

It would be quite something if we could manage to go all summer without 30°C this year. I won't be complaining.

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Posted
  • Location: Estonia
  • Weather Preferences: despite my username, I like warm weather :)
  • Location: Estonia

Estonia hit 30C today.  Last time we hit 30C in May was in 2014, also in 2013 and 2007. This is quite a big change compared to the run of cold Mays we  had from 2019 to 2022. 

Not sure what to make of the rest of the summer. I don't think we'll see another 30C in June as we're going into a cooler pattern for the start of the month, I think July or August will see another 30-32C day (or two), but I think it's gonna be a short plume, not a prolonged heatwave. The national record of 35,6C from 1992 (2010 came close at 35,5C)  is still standing though. Sooner or later it's going to get beaten. The UK managed to reach 40C, so Estonia should also manage 36-37C at least. Although I feel like we are not gonna reach it this summer. But who knows.

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

 Metwatch Looks like we're running ahead of schedule actually this year, since we achieved 27.5C on the 12th May. However, close to running behind again, with no 28C or higher likely for the next week to ten days.

I think it's just a waiting game really - the next warm synoptic, even a fairly unremarkable one, will probably easily send the temperature over 30C. All depends on how long we end up stuck under an ATR or -NAO regime I guess.

My original guess is now out the window, so I'll make a new guess and say 17th June for 30C.

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Posted
  • Location: Southend
  • Weather Preferences: Clear blue skies!
  • Location: Southend

 WYorksWeather I hope your new guess is correct as that would coincide with my next week off haha.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire

 Met. I'm not sure if any summers have failed to hit 30°c in the past two decades. I think perhaps 2007 or 2012? But overall the last year that didn't see +30°c at all was in the early 90s I think. It's an exceptionally rare event.

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

 SunSean Well counting weeks off from May onwards (discounting earlier ones this year as I don't expect good weather at my location before then, by which I mean shorts and T-shirt), I'm probably at about 13 out of a possible 20, scoring each of my two weeks out of 10.

Had week commencing 6th May, which was fantastic here (less so at your location). 9/10 for me.

I'm also off this week which is much worse, doesn't look like much decent weather until near the weekend (obviously odd bits of days here and there, but no consistently good days). I'd give it a 4/10 going by the forecast as the week is still incomplete.

Hopefully my prediction comes off for you!

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

 raz.org.rain 1993 had an annual max of 29.7C. And that was volcanic winter induced. Without the cooling influence of Pinatubo it would have easily scraped into the low 30s given it was so close. The last one with no obvious extenuating circumstances was 29.5C in 1981.

Probably a more realistic low end now would be for a summer to fail to reach 32C (90F in old money, as the saying goes). 2007 and 2008 had annual maxima at 30.1C and 30.2C respectively. At a guess those would probably be in the 31.X range if the same synoptics happened again. Those are the last years that would have any chance if they reoccurred - the 31.8C and 31.7C in 2009 and 2010 respectively would now exceed 32C easily.

If we pick a really extreme example, the coldest year in the last 50 years for annual maximum was 1974, with a maximum of just 28.0C on the 15th June. That would make the chart below the best warm synoptic of the year!

image.thumb.png.a35b33c088e97895616a195be584aaf5.png

Something like that just seems unfathomable these days - the 11-12C 850hPa is as warm as it gets and it's the warmest day of the year! I suppose if it did recur today, we'd probably push the temperature a bit higher with slightly warmer 850s, but whether it would reach 30C I'm not sure. Something like this is probably the only way you could ever get a sub-30C annual max now.

You'd need the only warm synoptic to come in early to mid June, for it to be a pretty half-hearted attempt, and then nothing at all after that (1974 featured one of the coolest Julys on record, and a cool and non-descript August except for some thunderstorms, according to Trevor Harley). It also featured a very cool September allowing no chance for a late warm spell to redeem it in terms of the annual maximum.

In short, to fail to reach 30C these days everything would have to land perfectly, and it would still probably only just miss it, and even that is debatable. Not sure if recent warming over the last 50 years would push it up by the required 2C which is why I say it still might be possible, though it would certainly push it up by at least 1C.

I'd make it a 1 in 100 shot (ignoring volcanic winters or other external events), and getting less likely with every passing year.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and mixed summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

1974 featured one of the coolest Julys on record

It was cool but has a C.E.T. of 15.1 and only ranks 78th coolest so very far from one of the coolest.

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

 LetItSnow! Sorry - was skimming Trevor Harley's summary and somehow got muddled up between coolest annual max and coolest month! I read the bit about having to wait until 1980 for a cooler July and then my brain somehow jumped from that to it being very cool in historic context. But in the historic record, as you say just on the cool side - in the bottom 20% and cool by modern standards, but not so much historically.

The overall point of course still stands, in that you'd need a very unimpressive July and August these days to not reach 30C in either month, and then avoid any major heat spike in June or September as well, with any heat being of the sustained moderate variety rather than any sort of plume.

You'd need the 15C isotherm to stay well away from the UK and never cross it except if it coincided with low pressure. This would include at any time from mid-May through to mid-September. Very, very unlikely to happen now.

I don't think I expect to see a sub-30C annual max in my lifetime at this point.

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and mixed summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

 WYorksWeather The rest of the point I wasn’t commenting on. Trevor is a great resource but there is quite a bit of incorrect / unclear information there. I prefer to look at the Met Office archives. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

 LetItSnow! In this case Trevor Harley wasn't wrong I don't think - I just messed up my reading comprehension!

I agree that Trevor Harley isn't absolutely reliable, but I do find his records to be laid out quite straightforwardly.

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Did July 2023 produce 30 degrees anywhere? Here it failed to deliver 25 degrees. 

30.2C at Chertsey on the 7th July. Which just proves my point about how easy it is these days! An absolutely shocking summer month, and yet it still scraped its way there with a brief plume-type event between the 7th and 9th of July.  August 2023 actually failed to reach 30C though, despite being the better month for most people in terms of subjective weather experience.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)

 WYorksWeather Ah well we came close then, a rarity to see a July and August back to back produce a 30.2 top max these days and given they are our warmest months on average. Last year was very odd with the early and late season warmth in June and Sept copying each other. 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Ah well we came close then, a rarity to see a July and August back to back produce a 30.2

It was first summer since 2008 that London did not see 30C in July or August. Quite exceptional nowadays. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

 damianslaw Yep, exactly. You need no warmth of any kind at all for all of July and August really - even a brief plume can get to 30C. You then need nothing exceptional to happen in the second half of May, June and September.

It's just so difficult these days to find a year that meets all of those criteria. There are plenty of summers that don't get going until July, or have a poor July and August but then are very hot out of season.

As an example, here's the Northern Hemisphere 850hPa reanalysis for 1st June 1974 (which went on to be a very cool summer):

image.thumb.png.3766d0fc0f48b5b55f21c73e8cb85274.png

And here is what it looks like today:

image.thumb.png.9d763d87d1457080aed66ccbbc3817f9.png

It's actually quite instructive to view it like this. It's a similar pattern for the UK in both cases, actually - cooler than average for the time of year.

But this year you can just see how much more warmth there is generally in the Northern Hemisphere compared to 50 years ago. The 20C line is over Spain, whereas it's more North Africa in 1974. There's a 12C line to our east over Scandinavia. The cold pool to our north is much smaller and less intense, so the odds of a very cold northerly incursion are far lower.

All these factors just mean that a summer like 1974 is just far less likely.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

 Daniel* think @Gavin Pis forecasting a backloaded summer meaning that we have a greater chance of heat spikes particularly in the second half of the summer where a likelihood of 30 degrees or more is achieved.  Suppose the achilles heel of this summer is the PDO which is negative so a pretty mixed summer i reckon is on the cards definitely.    

Edited by Addicks Fan 1981
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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire

 damianslaw judging by the Sod's Law of climate change it wouldn't remotely surprise me if a major volcanic eruption happens but it spews a ton more CO2 into the atmospheric and pushes us over +8°c of warming.

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

 Daniel* Which is ridiculous when even the dreadful Augusts of 2011 and 2015 managed to record 30c.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Interested knowing when 30 degrees was reached in each of the last 15 years, and working out the average date - suspect early July? 

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Quite telling this thread has been inactive since 30 May. However, if models verify as currently shown, 30 degrees could well be breached at some point in the next week, most probably London and SE from Tuesday onwards. 

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

 damianslaw I find that when a warm spell is more or less nailed on, it is often underestimated. 

At the moment, I see that temps are forecast to reach the mid to late 20s next week. So I wouldn't be surprised if some areas actually end up reaching the early 30s.

Edited by Weather Enthusiast91
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