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First 30 degrees 2024 watch


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

 Weather Enthusiast91 The origins of the air source not especially warm to begin with and will not be a long draw southerly from a furnace Spain, 30 degrees probable high mark, we also have very wet soils which will have a moderating affect. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Outside chance in the West London area on Monday.

Agree with the above, Tuesday looking very possible though.  Would be surprised if we got to mid next week without a 30c recording.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire

Looking at the synoptic charts I'd be surprised to see 30 to be honest, as others have said it's not an especially warm airmass. How would it get to 30 in the absence of hot air pumping up from North Africa? The temps above look about 5C hotter than I'd expect from the synoptics.

Edited by Summer8906
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (but not excessive heat); love cold winters!
  • Location: Solihull

Well, sadly for me, I had 10 straight days of over 30c in Romania recently, peaking at a bonkers 38c. I wish I could 'gift it' to the heat lovers among you! The only small sliver of silver lining was that it acclimatised me, so coming back to England I'm nice and cool. I can't quite believe that I'm typing this, but...er...I wouldn't actually mind a bit of warmth next week! OMG, what am I saying...

I'm curious now as to whether June will end up below the 1961-1990 CET average...it looked nailed on even a few days ago, but a late heat burst could change it. Watching with interest!

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

 SollyOlly we've had two reasons behind the weather we have had, one being the two stratosphere warmings we had in the spring and the decline of the 2023-24 el nin̈o culminating in what sort of june we have had so far.   The crumbs of comfort though are the high solar activity and the transition from eQBO to wQBO.  Two things that can't be dismissed really, I'd say solar activity partially influences our climate but not enirely.     

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Do we have a list of first 30C dates since 2008.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Wednesday looks most likely to deliver first 30 degrees in say Heathrow. Outside chance on Tuesday, Thursday remains very uncertain.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, low - mid 20s and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl

i'd say about a 30-40% of 30C next Thursday, as the 850hPa temperatures are only looking to be borderline conducive to 30C. 28-29C is a good bet as of tonight.

 

18 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Do we have a list of first 30C dates since 2008

Yes see page 2 of this thread

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

 Metwatch Actually could happen any day Tuesday to Thursday I would've thought. UKV tonight shows the best chance on Wednesday. Arpege does it Tuesday and Wednesday but nowhere near on Thursday.

Basically we need a minimum of 13-14C 850hPa, which it looks like we have a fair amount of the time in the most favoured spots. It's then a matter of clear skies for most of the day. It doesn't look like we're getting the 15-16C 850hPa which some models were showing a few days ago, so odds of anything above 30-31C are low.

For a bit of fun, I'll go with 30.3C at St James' Park as the highest reading from this spell, and I'll go with Wednesday.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)

 raz.org.rain A thread for 35 degrees would be appropriate, we never managed it last year, but I think quite a few years in the last 20 have delivered it. Its a good goal to aim for. From a lakeland perspective 30 degrees is very very good going, not easily achieved still, in a good summer, 28 degrees is a far more attainable figure here.  

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
5 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

 

Once we reach 30°c, what's the next benchmark to watch out for? A 35°c watch?

 

Considering how much of a struggle it is hitting 30c this season for whatever reason, probably best keeping it at 30c for now.  What looked like widespread 30c temps + with ease this week now COULD be just a few, localised 30c temps being recorded in favoured areas.

Medium range outlook, with a fat Atlantic High, suggests dry but average, a bit above average temps.  Need the HP to start moving over Europe more to start drawing in some more notable, prolonged heat.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted (edited)

Not today then, Wisley 28.3 degrees. 

Don't think tomorrow will do it, Wednesday still most likely. 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

 manutdmatt1986 Liam dutton is a very credible guy and totally trust him on this.    

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, low - mid 20s and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
On 27/05/2024 at 11:54, Metwatch said:

So maybe June 29th on the last weekend of the month.

So close to 29th! Thought we'd top out at 29-29.5°C today though.

Interesting to see if 30 is hit again tomorrow, we probably will. 

Edited by Metwatch
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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

 damianslaw Because I hear a lot of people talk about it still, I still have a soft spot for the metric 90F, which is 32C. It's pretty much the historic average summer max, so a logical next step on the road rather than a jump to 35C.

Who knows these days though, we might just get some random plume in July and it will just shoot up from 25-28C range straight to 35C!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

 WYorksWeather Yes perhaps 90f thread might be more appropriate, the benchmark of the high max perhaps up until last 10 years to be expected 1 in every 5 years, nowadays to be expected every summer really. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

 WYorksWeather Oh ok, yes probably achieved it far more than 1 in 5 years. Here 32 degrees has only been achieved I think once in July 22, 30 degrees is our high benchmark again only achieved handful of times. A average high can expect most summers is a lowly 28 degrees. 

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