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June 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

(a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes

includes all values 1981 to 2023, bold warmest, italic middle third, underlined coolest third. (15, 15, 13 due to ties). 

23.2 ... 19th, 2005, warmest daily mean (adjusted in v2.0)

22.9 ... 3rd, 1947, was warmest daily mean (as 23.0) in legacy.

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

17.0 ... 2023 (5th warmest)

16.9 ... 1762, 1976, 1798 (6th-8th warmest)

16.1 ... 2018

16.0 ... 2017

15.9 ... 2003

15.8 ... 2005, 2006

15.7 ... 1992

15.5 ... 1982, 2021

15.3 ... 2004, 2020

15.2 ... 2010, 2016

15.1 ... 2007, 2014

15.0 ... 1993 ... average for 2001-2023

14.9 ... 2000, 2022 

14.8 ... 1992-2021, 1994-2023 average (highest 30-year average for June)

14.7 ... 2009 ... 1993-2022 average

14.72 .. 1822-1851 had the warmest 30-year average of 14.72 until 1992-2021 moved past it to 14.76. Back down to 14.73 for 1993-2022, but up to 14.80 for 1994-2023.

14.6 ... 1986, and 1991-2020 average (fell by .05 to 14.64 in v2.0). 

14.5 ... average for 1701-1800

14.4 ... 1984, 1989, 1994, 1996 and average for 1981-2010

14.3 ... 1983, 2002  and average for all years 1659-2023 (14.34), also 1801-1900

14.2 ... 1988, 1995, 2001, 2019 and average for 1901-2000

14.1 ... 1998 and average for 1961-1990, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000

13.9 ... 20082015

13.8 ... 1999

13.7 ... 2011

13.6 ... 2013

13.5 ... 19902012

13.1 ... 1981

12.7 ... 1987 

12.6 ... 1985

12.0 ... 1689, 1698

11.9 ... 1749 and 1991 (tied 5th coldest)

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

__________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________

Enter the CET forecast contest by end of the day Friday 31st of May without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___________ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 

========================================================================

 

(b) _ EWP contest

The contest uses the England and Wales Hadley precip series (1766 to present) as its source. 

Predict the June 2024 rainfall in mm.

 

160.1 mm __ 2012 wettest 1766 to 2023

157.1 mm __ 1860 (2nd wettest 1766 to 2023)

_70.5 mm __ mean 1991-2020

_68.9 mm __ mean 1994-2023

_66.5 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2023

_66.3 mm __ mean 1981-2010

_16.5 mm __ 2018 driest 1981-2023 (20.2 mm in 1995 previous minimum)

__4.3 mm __ 1925 driest 1766-2023

In recent years,

2023_49.3 mm___2022_50.7 mm___2021_59.5 mm___2020_98.3 mm___2019_116.3 mm___2018_16.5 mm___2017_93.8 mm

___ 2016_114.0 mm___2015_38.8 mm___2014_49.8 mm___2013_37.6 mm___2012_160.1 mm___2011___82.0 mm____2010_42.7 mm.

- - - - - _______________________________ - - - - -

Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines and from 1st to 3rd of June, it's 0.3 point deductions per day late to end of 3rd. Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. Duplicate entries lose 0.1, not a full scoring interval, by order of entry. 

Good luck in both contests !!

_ __ ___ ____ _____ ______ _______ [] _______ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

First in….15.8c and 74mm 🙏🤗

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Posted
  • Location: howth,east dublin city
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: howth,east dublin city
Posted (edited)

17.9   and 28mm please Roger

Edited by emmett garland
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

17.4C please.

June 2024 could be sneaking into 3rd place in the rankings. Or that's what I am hoping.

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

15.3 at this stage with 74 mm of rain.   Similar to 2020.   

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

15.7C and 70.5mm please.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

16.6C and 65mm please, Roger.

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London

15.0c and 80mm

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield

12.9°C, 92mm

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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire

Didn't get around to doing it before now, but here is my usual display of the monthly averages in chart form.

image.thumb.png.49b5dd048c3a25080f675717cde504d5.png

Other than the obvious, such as the recent rises in the 10-year (cyan) and 30-year (dark blue) averages, one of the most interesting things to my eye is the decrease in scatter. So whilst June has indeed become much more reliably summery (with no very cool sub-12C June since 1991), we also haven't seen a great propensity towards very warm Junes (above 16C).

Most of the change here is towards the middle of the distribution, with an increase in the number of Junes in the 14C to 16C range and a decrease in the number in the 12C to 14C range over recent decades.

Probably the safe bet without any prior knowledge of how June would pan out would be somewhere in the 15s just going on recent climatology, but of course there are other factors to consider, most of which I think would be inclined towards a higher guess. And of course we are still too far away for NWP models to have much input.

I will be waiting another 7-10 days before posting my guess, but a bit of food for thought here.

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Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and mixed summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

I won't be entering my guess until the very end of the month but with signs of maybe an Azores-Scandinavian link with high pressure I think there's a good chance June could have a warm start and I think it's unlikely to be cooler than May but does have every chance of reverting to a cooler pattern so it's quite a wild card but I can't see it being much lower than the 14s-15s. Would be quite the irony if we have a cool June even by old standards though and was notably cooler than May. I don't favour this outcome as likely though.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

15.2 C and 75mm please, Ta

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

17.5°C and 35.2mm for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

16.5c and 84mm please.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

15.3C and 78.6mm please

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Posted
  • Location: SE Wales.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, mild/warm summers and varied shoulder seasons
  • Location: SE Wales.

15.5 and 63mm

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

If I'm brutally honest now I think 14.9 will be our CET figure for June of this year, thus I will be lowering my guess for June.  

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