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Posted (edited)

As most people know July 2006 still stands as the hottest month ever in the uk but with global warming getting more and more extreme what feels like every month now this month will almost certainly be beaten at some point my question is when? 

Edited by Summerlover2006
Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
Posted

There is a funny quirk in the warming era of every 11-12 years there’s been a really hot month - July 1983, August 1995, July 2006 and then July 2018. Would be funny if we see another record breaking scorcher between the years 2029 and 2031, though I’m not sure we’ll even have to wait that long! Given July 2006 has a CET of 19.8 and that there have already been inter-month 31 day periods averaging 20 or 21C I’d say we’re comfortably within the the threshold of possibility already.  All it takes is a month with the persistence of the aforementioned months with the intensity of July 2015, July 2019, August 2020 or July 2022 and the record will be absolutely smashed. At some point, maybe even before 2050, there will likely be the new 1976, maybe not for dryness but definitely for temperature. Basically a repeat but with all the modern twists. When it does hit it will pack a punch that’s for sure. Whether it’ll come this decade… who knows. I’ll randomly guess summer 2031. 😂 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)

 LetItSnow! Imagine a repeat of June/July 1976 synoptics in the 2020s?

In 1976, somewhere in England recorded a high exceeding 32.2C/90F for 15 consecutive days.

It would likely  be 15 days over 35C now.

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

I'm going to bet on before 2030 with a fair amount of confidence. If I had to take a guess I'll say 2028, but it is just a totally random guess.

My reasoning is that I'd give it about a 10% chance in any given year, so by 2030 it's more likely than not to have happened.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)

The 1961-90 CET avg for July is 16.0C.

Feb was 4C above the 1961-90 avg and May is currently running 3.3C above the 1961-90 avg.

To beat 2006, we would need a CET 3.9C above the 1961-90 avg. Will it be this year? It's possible, given we are currently running 2.24C above 61-90 for the year. I would give odds of 1/5.

At those odds, it's likely to have happened within the next 5 summers. 2028 would be my guess. I will stick my neck out and say a 19.8C or higher July will have been recorded twice by 2030.

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal with some variety
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
Posted

We keep breaking warm records, so having the coldest month on record during autumn or winter would be nice, but you are more likely to win the lottery these days.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

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